Week 15 Best Bets

Rich Hribar and Raymond Summerlin bring you their best bets every Friday of the NFL season as well as a preview of Sunday Night Football. The preview is free, but the bets can only be found in the Rotoworld Season Pass. Don’t miss out on the action.

Rich: 36-34-1 season record (last week: 3-4)
Raymond: 29-35-3 season record (last week: 2-2)

All lines taken from the VI Consensus at VegasInsider.com Friday morning.

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Sunday Night Football – Eagles @ Rams (-12.5) – 52.5-point total
Rich: With Carson Wentz expected to miss Sunday Night and potentially beyond, a lot of the luster has been removed from an Eagles-Rams rematch which featured 78 combined points last December. The Eagles are a much different team at this point in 2018 than they were a year ago when Nick Foles took over after Wentz was injured in that game, ranking 21st in points per game (21.6) and 30th in differential of explosive gained compared to their opponents this season at -17.

The Rams are coming off their worst offensive performance under Sean McVay, scoring just six points a week ago against the Bears, but get to head home where they’ve posted a 6-0 record so far this season. Their starting quarterback has especially played better at home. In one fewer game at home this season, Goff has thrown nine more touchdown passes, seven fewer interceptions and posted 464 more passing yards than he has on the road this season. The Eagles have had one of the worst defenses against the pass and have struggled to close the season. Since returning from the bye in Week 10, opposing passers have completed 72.8 percent of their passes against the Eagles, the highest rate in the league.

In the end, I expect the Rams to win and cruise doing so, but I’m not in the habit of laying 12.5 points, so I’ll be leaving this game on the table and enjoying the fantasy action.

Ray: I am in a similar spot as Rich. While I expect the Rams to cruise against a mediocre team which is expected to have Nick Foles at quarterback, last season’s playoff run leaves more than enough doubt to prevent me from laying 12.5 points even if the Rams and Jared Goff have played better at home this season.

Plays the Rams in fantasy, avoid the Eagles where possible, and try to enjoy the show.

Cowboys @ Colts (-3) – 47-point total
Rich: This Cowboys-Colts matchup is an intriguing one because both defenses are playing good football. Over the past four weeks, opponents have scored on just 11-of-43 drives (25.6 percent) against the Colts, the second-lowest rate in the league. On the other side, the Cowboys have allowed more than 24 points in just one game this season, the fewest in the league. Dallas also plays in slugfests regularly away from home. Just one of the past 10 Dallas road games have gone over the game total and that includes their most recent road game with Amari Cooper and new-look offense when they won 22-19 in Atlanta. The last Cowboys road game to go over 47 points came back in Week 8 of the 2017 season. The Colts past four games have also gone under the game total.

Pick: Under 47

Patriots @ Steelers (+2.5) – 53.5-point total
Ray:

There is not much to like this week, but getting the Patriots as short favorites is always a good situation. Over the past 10 seasons, the Patriots have been a short-favorite in 24 games, and they are 14-10 (58.3 percent) both against the spread and straight up. They are just 7-8 on the road in that situation, but they are 3-1 over the last three seasons including their win over the Bears in Week 7.

More than that, however, the Patriots have been absolute money coming off a loss over that span. Since 2008, New England is 26-12-2 (68.4 percent) against the spread coming off a loss and 33-7 straight up. They are even better on the road after a loss, going 15-5-2 (75 percent) against the spread. Interestingly, the Patriots were in exactly the same position against the Steelers in Week 15 of last season. Coming off a loss in Miami, because that is what they do, New England went to Pittsburgh and won as 2.5-point favorites.

They did need a controversial call at the end of that game to get the win, but that Steelers team was an 11-2 behemoth and not one reeling after three straight losses. The Patriots have not exactly been the Patriots this season, but history suggests they will take care of business here.

Pick: Patriots -2.5

Cardinals @ Falcons (-9.5) – 44-point total
Rich:

Atlanta is a disaster right now and shouldn’t be giving this many points away to anyone. They haven’t covered in a game since Week 9 and are 3-10 ATS this spread this season, including 2-6 against the number as favorites. They’ve also averaged just 17.6 points per game over their past five games. Arizona is just 3-10 on the season, but they are 6-6-1 against the spread and are a surprising 5-2-1 versus the spread when getting more than 2.5 points. With large road covers already this season against the Packers and Chiefs, this is just too many points to leave on the table.

Pick: Cardinals +9.5

Bucs @ Ravens (-7.5) – 46.5-point total
Ray:

The overtime trends did not work out well last week – they did on Thursday night thanks to a crazy finish – but I will go right back to the well this week. Home teams after an overtime game have been particularly bad against the spread since 2008, going 54-90-6 (37.5 percent). Big home favorites have done slightly better, but they are 0-2 this season including the Vikings’ loss to the Bills in Week 3. It certainly helps that Tampa Bay has been playing much better lately, and Jameis Winston has mostly avoided turnovers since his return to the starting lineup. If he can keep doing that, Tampa can cover this big spread.

Pick: Bucs +7.5

Seahawks @ 49ers (+3.5) – 44-point total
Rich:

The 49ers have quietly had a productive offense under Nick Mullens. Since Mullens took over as the starter in Week 9, the 49ers are fifth in the league in offensive yardage per game (392.4 yards). 49ers home games feature a combined average of 45.5 points, so this is right on the button. Last Monday was the first time a Seattle game featured fewer than 51 combined points over their past five games, including a 43-16 win against the 49ers two weeks ago at home. Seattle’s defense is nothing to truly fear and they are on the road after a Monday Night game.
Pick: Over 44