Week 8 Best Bets

Rich Hribar and Raymond Summerlin bring you their best bets every Friday of the NFL season as well as a preview of Sunday Night Football. The preview is free, but the bets can only be found in the Rotoworld Season Pass. Don’t miss out on the action.

Rich: 19-16-1 season record (last week: 2-4)
Raymond: 22-13-1 season record (last week: 4-2)

All lines taken from the

VI Consensus at VegasInsider.com Friday morning.

Sunday Night Football – Saints @ Vikings (Pick) – 52-point total
Rich: Sunday Night features two of the hotter teams in the league as the Saints have won five games in a row while the Vikings have won their past three contests. It also is a meeting that we saw begin and end the Saints’ 2017 with losses. Minnesota beat New Orleans at home twice last year with two different quarterbacks. The first was a 29-19 victory in Week 1 with Sam Bradford under center. The second was in the Divisional Round of the playoffs when Case Keenum found Stefon Diggs on the Minneapolis Miracle to give the Vikings a 29-24 win.

Not only have the Saints been hot, but they’ve been hot against the spread, covering in each of their past four games, with three of those coming on the road. Keeping both their winning streak and covering the spread will be a tall ask as the Vikings have been particularly strong at home since Mike Zimmer joined the team. At home over that span, the Vikings are 26-11 straight up and 25-9-3 against the spread. This year, however, they are just 1-1-1 at home against the spread, clouding that picture, but both of their non-covers were laying double-digit points (although they also lost one of those games outright to the Bills).

From a betting standpoint, it’s easy to pick a side if you feel strongly about who wins the game. Heads up, neither of these teams have an overly impressive resume so far as they have combined for one win over another team with a winning record, that coming last week when the Saints beat the Ravens on the road. The Vikings have turned things around defensively but have also played two rookie quarterbacks in Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold the past two games. In the end, I expect this to be a tight game, but I don’t have a clear opinion on which one of these teams is actually truly better.

A lot of people will play short home favorites or dogs on principle, but there’s no edge there. This season, home teams getting or giving less than a field goal are 15-13-1 straight up and are 15-14 against the spread. Some will say the Saints are coming off an emotionally charged win and are due for a letdown, but road teams coming off a 1-3 points road win the week before are strong against the number, going 43-39-3 versus the spread over the past decade.

All of that is a roundabout way of me saying that I’m leaving this one alone. I could be persuaded on the game total going under, but I’m settling in to enjoy the game on its own merits this Sunday night.

Ray: I am in lockstep with Rich here. Both of these teams have turned their seasons around after rough starts, but neither has played a particularly impressive schedule. That is especially true for the Vikings, who came away with an impressive win in Philly but then followed that up with wins over two rookie quarterbacks. They will face a considerably tougher test on Sunday night, and they also have serious injury questions on defense with Xavier Rhodes, Anthony Barr, and Andrew Sendejo all looking likely to sit. All of that pushes me towards the Saints, but I also do not feel strongly enough about it to make an official pick.

Colts @ Raiders (+3) – 50.5-point total
Rich: The glaring difference between these teams on paper is the Colts can score points and the Raiders can’t. The Colts have scored 24 or more points in four straight games as Andrew Luck has found his rhythm and they have scored 34 or more points in three of those games. He just got T.Y. Hilton back into the lineup, and tight end Jack Doyle is looking to be back on his way this week. On the other side, the Raiders have scored more than 20 points in a game just once this season and have scored just 13 points total over their past two games. The Raiders have tipped their hand that they are openly not trying to win many football games this season and that has held true in their results to date. Coming out of their bye at 1-5, the Raiders have four losses by eight or more points and three of those are by 16-plus points. The Colts Defense has been a roller coaster this season and is definitely capable of allowing the Raiders to score points on the road, but I don’t believe the Raiders can stop the Colts or keep pace with the Indianapolis offense.

Pick: Colts -3

Ray:

In addition to the analysis offered by Rich, these teams are on the opposite side of bye week trends. The Colts are road favorites before a bye week, a situation which is 34-20-2 ATS (63%) since 2008, while the Raiders are a home underdogs following a bye week, a situation which is 19-26-1 ATS (42.2%) over the same span. Betting short-road favorites always feels square, but these strong trends stacked together make this a must-best.

Pick: Colts -3

Packers @ Rams (-9.5) – 56.5-point total
Rich:

The bottom line is I’m just going to take this large of a number with Aaron Rodgers, but I’ll add a few more words. By now you’ve heard, but this is the largest point differential Aaron Rodgers has ever faced in his career. In fact, it is just the second time in his career his team has been getting a touchdown or more. The first time was Week 1 of the 2014 season when the Packers were 8.5-point dogs on the road In Seattle and ended up losing 31-28. Since 2012, the Packers have lost 11 games by nine or more points with Rodgers under center. The Rams enter Sunday as the league’s only unbeaten team, but three of their past four games have been decided by seven points or less, and they have covered just once over that span since they are constantly giving away a touchdown or more every week.

Pick: Packers +9.5

Ray: The unders struck back last week in a big way, but that does not dissuade me from the opinion these totals are being set too low. The Packers have given up an average of 28.8 points to their non-Bills opponents this season, a list which includes Chicago, Washington, and San Francisco, while the Rams have scored 30 in all but one game and are averaging 33.6 per contest despite winning four of those games by at least double digits. It would be a shock if the Rams do not reach at least 30 points in this game. On the other side, Los Angeles’ defense has benefitted by playing the Broncos and 49ers the last two games, but the Chargers, Vikings, and Seahawks were able to move the ball against them and score – they gave up an average of 28.3 points in those contests. Healthier on offense coming out of the bye, the Packers should be able to move the ball as well, setting up a shootout.
Pick: Over 56.5

Jaguars vs. Eagles (-3) – 43-point total
Rich:

The Jaguars are heading home to London to play the defending Super Bowl champs and are coming in on a terrible run of performances. Jacksonville has lost three games in a row by a combined score of 90-28 and has lost four of their past five games. Over that run, they’ve shown no ability to generate points, scoring 14 or fewer points in four of their past five games. The Jaguars want to do two things well: run the ball and play great defense. There’s no chance they’re going to be able to do the former against an Eagles Defense which is second in the league in rushing yardage allowed and faces the lowest rate of rushing plays (30.9 percent) despite underperforming on the scoreboard this season. That means the Jaguars will have to lean on Blake Bortles here, who was just benched in a game at home for Cody Kessler. On the other side, the Jaguars are still a very good defense, but they are no longer winning games outright on that side of the ball. Through seven games, the Jaguars have allowed 36 more points while having 18 fewer sacks and 11 fewer takeaways than at this point in 2017.
Pick: Eagles -3

Seahawks @ Lions (-3) – 49-point total
Ray:

As we painfully learned last Sunday, the over is not ubiquitous. Like with Saints at Ravens last week, this looks like a game where reputation and the high-scoring nature of the season have created an inflated total. In a departure from what we have seen in the past, both of these offenses have transitioned to run-first attacks. The Seahawks have attempted fewer passes per game than any team in the league this season while the Lions have faced the second-fewest per game. With the running game taking off, Matthew Stafford has attempted 30, 26, and 22 passes in his last three games, and the Lions have consistently been a slow-paced team under Jim Bob Cooter when game script allows – they are dead last in Football Outsiders’ situation-neutral pace this season. All of that suggests this is going to be a run-heavy, slow-paced game which ends quickly with few points on the board.

Pick: Under 49

Bucs @ Bengals (-3.5) – 54.5-point total
Rich:

The Bengals have two things working for them this week. One is they are coming off a massacre on Sunday Night when they were waxed in Kansas City 45-10. Since 2003, teams coming off a loss of 28 or more points are 55.3 percent against the spread the following week and teams coming off a loss of 35-plus points are 52-32-5 against the number. Second, we have brought this one up more than once this season, but teams coming off an overtime game have disappointed the following week. The Buccaneers are coming off a long 26-23 overtime win over the Browns. Since overtime rules changed in 2016, teams coming off playing an extra frame are 27-44 against the spread and are 5-13 this season. The same scenario applies to the Browns this week if you want to play all the games under that same umbrella but giving away eight points to a Cleveland team that has had six of their seven games decided by four points or less is a lot to ask. As for the Bengals, they are facing the 32nd ranked defense in DVOA on top all of the aforementioned trends, so a bounce back is in order.

Pick: Bengals -3.5

Patriots @ Bills (+14) – 44-point total
Ray: I do not want to bet this game. You do not want to bet this game. Unfortunately, we should bet this game. Double-digit home underdogs are 29-18-1 ATS (61.7%) in the last ten seasons. There have only been three other home dogs of 14 points during that span, and they were 2-1 against the spread. Plug your nose and take the points.

Pick: Bills +14

Washington @ Giants (Pick) – 42.5-point total
Rich: Washington is far from exciting, but they are reliable. They are 4-2 straight up and against the spread this season. They don’t allow any points, giving up 21 or fewer points in five of six games, and have allowed more than two offensive touchdowns to the opposition just twice in a game this season. On offense, Washington has adopted the Alex Smith game plan as they are second in the NFL in turnovers this season. We know what we’re getting out of them. On the other hand, the Giants are just 1-6 and just traded away one of their best defensive players. They are also coming off a Monday Night road loss. Since 2008, home teams coming off a Monday Night away game are 63-81-4 against the spread and those teams coming off a loss are even worse at 46-67-3.

Pick: Washington

49ers @ Cardinals (+1) – 42.5-point total
Ray: This is an odd trend, but road favorites coming off a blowout (21-points or more) loss are outstanding against the spread, going 23-7 (76.7%) since 2008. It kind of makes sense. For a team to be a road favorite coming off a blowout loss, they either have to be very good or the team they are playing has to be very bad. In this case it is the latter. Short-favorites are 11-4 ATS (73.3%) over that same span, so it does not matter the 49ers are just a point favorites. They are firmly in an outstanding trend.
Pick: 49ers -1