Welcome to another edition of the SAF (Samulski’s Arbitrary Fantasy) Awards! I’m your host, Eric Samulski, and we’ve come to the eleventh week of this weekly awards segment where we shine a light on the best performances, the disappointing performances, and the most misleading performances in the week of NFL action.
As the name states, the SAF Awards are totally arbitrary but no less valid and desirable awards given out by me based on the committee of voices in my head. Some awards will carry over every week while others will emerge from the ether based on my mood or the mercurial winds of pop culture trends.
While you will find plenty of actionable fantasy football information here, you’re not likely to get many of the fantasy football acronyms that make me feel like a real estate agent: EPA, aDOT, YACON, etc. Those are all valuable and have their place, but that place is not here. This is the place where we give out awards, talk some trash, and have some fun.
If you have players you believe are deserving of awards or want to suggest awards for the next week, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (@SamskiNYC). But without further ado, let’s hand out some hardware that doesn’t exist and people wouldn’t really want if it did!
Star of the Week: Trevor Lawrence - QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
I usually don’t like putting quarterbacks up here because they are almost always the highest scoring players on the week, but given how much Lawrence has struggled this year, he deserves his time in the spotlight. Against the Titans, Lawrence completed 24-of-32 passes for 262 yards and two touchdowns and also ran for two touchdowns on the ground on his way to 32.2 fantasy points.
That strong day bring him up to...11 touchdown passes on the season. Gross. The former number one overall pick has just 2,382 yards on the year and has thrown for over 300 yards just once. Now, some of that is on the gameplan, but Lawrence has also graded out fairly mediocre in most PFF metrics. Obviously, the two rushing touchdowns against the Titans do a lot of heavy lifting in his fantasy score and...those are his only two rushing touchdowns of the season.
All of this seems to scream spike game based on matchup, and we should expect Lawrence to go back to being a high-end QB2 the rest of the way.
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Hello, Boys; I’m Back Award: Justin Fields - QB, Chicago Bears
Just like with Randy Quaid in “Independence Day,” with this award, we shout out a player’s return in a moment of pure glory.
Justin Fields returned to the lineup for the first time since Week 6 and not only did he bless us with a passing touchdown, but he finally showcased the rushing ceiling we’ve always hoped for, rushing for 104 yards on 18 attempts against the Lions. 18 ATTEMPTS! That amounted to a season-high 33% of the designed rushing attempts, so this wasn’t just scrambles and broken plays. Maybe the Bears no longer want to protect him or think of him as their long-term quarterback, but they are letting him loose on the ground and we love that.
In fact, in his six healthy games this season, he averages just under 10 carries per game and 0ver 20 fantasy points. He’s a QB1 from here on out.
Mom’s Spaghetti Award: Tommy DeVito - QB, New York Giants
Really, this is the breakout player award, but given that our man Tommy still leaves at home and loves his mom’s home cooking, we’re going to give him an honorary title.
The Giants undrafted rookie quarterback completed 18-of-26 passes for 246 yards and three touchdowns against the Commanders, which was good for 22.5 points. Yes, Tommy DeVito was the 7th-best quarterback in fantasy in Week 11. Now, much of that can be chalked up to this average Commanders secondary, but DeVito took what the defense gave him, consistently using Saquon Barkley out of the backfield, and actually looked much improved from his earlier games.
No, I don’t expect him to be a usable quarterback in many leagues going forward, but I bet the family dinner on Sunday night was pretty special.
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Undertaker Award: Calvin Ridley - WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Everybody knows the GIF. Some of us were alive to see it live. But this award is given to a player who we left for dead who simply came roaring back.
This week, that award goes to Calvin Ridley, who exploded with seven receptions for 103 yards and two touchdowns against the Titans, good for 27.6 points in half-PPR formats. He also led the team in targets share and air yards. You’ll hear a lot of talk that Zay Jones was back in the lineup and Ridley has had his WR1 performances in three of the four games that Jones has played. While that’s fun, and true, it’s not really something actionable.
As we covered with Trevor Lawrence above, this Jaguars passing attack has not been consistent and Lawrence himself as not been great. Ridley remains in an offense with two other receivers who get a lot of work, and the Titans are one of the most giving secondaries in the league. Ridley came roaring back to life in Week 11, but that life may begin to drain again in Week 12.
New Year, New Me Award: Josh Jacobs - RB, Las Vegas Raiders
This is a new award where we highlight a player trend that has begun to standout. Oftentimes, we’ll discuss a playing time change or a change in usage, as is the case with Josh Jacobs and his passing game role since Antonio Pierce took over as head coach.
On the season, Jacobs has a 53% route participation and 14% target share. However, over the last three weeks, since Antonio Pierce has become head coach and Aidan O’Connell has been the starting quarterback, Jacobs has just a 5% target share. He does still have a 52% route participation, but the lack of targets, paired with the inconsistent rushing we’ve seen all season have Jacobs averaging just 14.3 PPR points over the last three weeks, almost all of which can be attributed to his two touchdown game against the Giants. He’s scored just 10.5 PPR points per game over the last two weeks and if his passing game work doesn’t tick back up, he’s looking like a risky RB2.
The same usage complaints can also be attributed to Travis Etienne (Jacksonville Jaguars), who has come out of the bye week to a more limited role. Now, the Jaguars have also been blown out and blown a team out during that time, so we may not want to read into it as much as we do for Jacobs, but it’s worth pointing out. If you use the Utilization Report over at Fantasy Life, you can see that Before the Week 9 bye, Etienne averaged an 81% snap share, had 72% of the rushed and ran routes on 64% of dropbacks. In two games since the bye, those numbers have dipped to 64%, 51% and 60% and he has yet to finish inside the top 20 running backs.
We have to hope this is just about gamescript and not about Jacksonville being cautious with a running back who has a long injury history.
The Office Space Award: Derrick Henry - RB, Tennessee Titans
This award highlights a player who we’re all looking at on our rosters and thinking:
This week, that award goes to Derrick Henry. Now, I know it’s harsh to put this on Henry because he does remain a usable fantasy player, but he’s certainly not the player many people drafted as a top 5-8 running back. In fact, Henry ranks as the 16th running back in PPR formats, which is not ideal.
He’s had over 70% of the team’s rushes just once since the Titans’ bye and has played under 50% of snaps twice over that span. Some of that is gamescript-dependent, but the Titans don’t figure to get any better to close the year, so if Tyjae Spears is going to continue playing 93% of the long down and distance snaps and run 48% of the routes, then Henry is going to continue to see this serious hit to his fantasy value.
At this point, he needs to score a touchdown to have any chance at RB1 value.
Horizon Award: Keaton Mitchell - RB, Baltimore Ravens
The Horizon Award is where we look for potential breakouts on the horizon. This week, we turn our attention to a player who already flashed breakout upside.
When we first highlighted Mitchell after his breakout performance, we mentioned that it was likely a flash in the pan due to his limited usage in Baltimore’s three-headed backfield. Well, since then that has remained the case, but we’ve also seen signs of his role changing.
In Week 11, Mitchell seemed to surpass Justice Hill for running back snaps behind Gus Edwards, playing on 37% of the snaps and handling 23% of the rushes. Now, that’s still not a great role, especially with Lamar Jackson also rushing the ball, but it’s a sign of progress for a dynamic rookie, so he deserves to be on your bench in case he continues to expand his role.
Ryan Gosling Award: Zach Charbonnet - RB, Seattle Seahawks
Did you know George Clooney was originally cast as the lead in “The Notebook”? Did you know he was going to play a younger version of Paul Newman? Eventually, George Clooney decided not to go through with it, and Ryan Gosling was cast in the role, and the rest is history.
In the spirit of that moment, we give this award to the player who is set to take over a role vacated by a notable player ahead of them. This week, that award goes to Zach Charbonnet, who figures to take over the starting running back job in Seattle with Kenneth Walker sidelined. Now, at the time of this publishing, we don’t yet know how long Walker is out, but we do know that Pete Carroll said it was a “legit” injury, so we have to expect he’ll be sidelined a couple weeks.
Even before Walker got hurt, Charbonnet had taken over the two-minute offense and long-down-distance work, so without Walker, it feels like Charbonnet should get a bell-cow role. In fact, in Week 11 he played 85% of snaps and took 71% of the rushing attempts. That amounted to 21 opportunities split between 15 rushes and six targets. If we’re getting 20 touches from any running back then he’s somebody who needs to be in most lineups.
Honorary mention here goes to Isaiah Likely (Baltimore Ravens) who will be taking over for Mark Andrews, who’s out of the remainder of the regular season, if not more. We want to avoid listening when people spout off Likely’s usage rates last season because the Ravens didn’t have Zay Flower, Odell Beckham Jr., or a healthy Rashod Bateman. Things have changed and Likely is not, well, likely to see the same usage rates he did last year, but he did run a route on 88% of dropbacks in the Bengals game last week, which means he’s going to be an every down tight end on a good offense who has flashed a high ceiling before. That’s worth a lot in fantasy.
That’s it for this week; we’ll see you next Wednesday for another edition of the SAF Awards!
