Steichen confirms Warren injured groin on Wed.

Warren tied for a team high in catches but was out-targeted by Laquon Treadwell and Ashton Dulin. If you couldn’t tell, the passing attack did not look good. Daniel Jones was horribly inaccurate and the Commanders were largely successful in slowing down Warren and Josh Downs. Better days should be ahead for Warren, but he’s averaging a dismal 32.5 yards per game right now. He’s falling to the back of the TE1 ranks ahead of Indy’s Week 5 date with Pittsburgh.

With Alec Pierce and IR and Keenan Allen ruled out, this was supposed to be Downs’ breakout performance. Instead, Downs went missing for most of the game. He caught two passes in the first quarter, another in the second, and did not touch the ball again for the remaining 35 minutes of the contest. Downs finished fourth on the team in targets and was used primarily for check-down duties, though that’s all Daniel Jones was capable of today. Downs should still be treated as the team’s No. 1 receiver for Week 5 versus Pittsburgh, but his stranglehold on the targets is at least in question now.

This one went under the radar. Allen was limited on Wednesday with a “rest” designation. He remained limited on Thursday, but the Colts tacked a groin injury next to his name while maintaining the “rest” designation and hope for a Week 4 appearance along the way. Allen was downgraded on Friday, unable to practice, and should be considered truly questionable to face the Commanders this week. Were he to sit, No. 1 wide receiver Josh Downs would get a helpful target share boost.

With Alec Pierce gone, the targets heavily concentrated to Warren and Josh Downs. Warren, still an extension of the run game, just doesn’t look like he’s going to generate much yardage on his catches unless he breaks a tackle. But the PPR points all count the same, and nine catches at tight end is nine catches at tight end. He’ll remain on the TE1 line against the Commanders next week.

This target boost brought to you by Alec Pierce’s heel injury. The Colts didn’t really land any deep targets but they pounded the Texans’ middle-of-field zone coverages and Downs was a main beneficiary. He’ll be in the WR3 ranks next week against the Commanders.

Pierce will be sidelined for at least four weeks after suffering the injury in Week 2 against Kansas City. Pierce had seen 19 percent of the Colts’ targets and 53 percent of the team’s air yards in Week 1 against the Ravens, resuming his role as a strictly-downfield pass catcher. With Pierce out, Josh Downs should have every chance to operate as the Colts’ No. 1 wideout while Tyler Warren sees a bump in targets. Laquon Treadwell is likely to take over as the team’s lone deep threat. Treadwell can be picked up in 14-team fantasy formats ahead of the Colts’ Week 3 matchup with the Texans.

The seven targets and a score look nice in the box scores, but it is hard to overlook just how reliant Warren is on screens and leak concepts in this offense, almost all of which are built behind play action. That’s good news for fantasy managers when the ground game is cooking, as it was against the Chiefs, but we’ve also seen how ineffective it can be when the Colts aren’t able to control games as they did to start the 2025 season. Losers of nine straight games dating back to last season, Warren could struggle to return enough yardage to truly emerge as a locked-in TE1 until this team starts winning some games. His performance against the Chiefs now marks consecutive games with 21 yards or fewer, although a touchdown in each contest has kept his fantasy value afloat. He’ll be a difficult start against the lockdown Houston defense in Week 3.

Downs operated as the unquestioned top dog through the air following the first quarter departure of Alec Pierce, the latter of whom left with a heel injury on the same foot as his offseason surgery. That setup appears likely to continue should Pierce miss time, although the short-area nature of Downs’ role all but requires significant volume to return scores beyond WR3 production. Even so, Downs should mostly avoid the lockdown perimeter corners of the Texans in Week 3, where he will be an upside WR3 in fantasy circles.

Both of Downs’ catches came on the Colts’ opening drive. The fourth-year receiver looked explosive on his first reception when he turned a short catch into a 25-yard gain to move his team into Ravens territory, and he picked up another 12 yards through the air two plays later. Three of Downs’ four targets came on that drive, as he managed just one target the rest of the way. Downs’ drop-off after the opening possession largely stemmed from the Colts’ inability to move the ball. They averaged just 4.2 yards per play after that first drive and totaled only 107 passing yards over that span. The early targets were encouraging. Hopefully Downs will be in line for a better outing in Week 2 against the Chiefs. He shouldn’t be treated as anything more than a WR3 in next week’s game.

Warren’s underwhelming line can be blamed on the offense’s struggle to move the ball all afternoon. The second-year tight end tallied two receptions in the first half, both for two yards, with his longest play coming on a nine-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter. His five targets were good for second-most on the team, but the Colts offense left a lot to be desired this week. The expected volume will keep Warren in the TE1 mix for Week 2 against the Chiefs.