It’s the final day of the regular season, and the playoff field is almost set, as 12 teams have clinched playoff berths and the Seahawks have clinched the top seed in the NFC. But much else remains in flux. Here’s a list of the teams remaining in contention for each playoff seed, and how they can earn those seeds.
NFC
1. Seahawks. The Seahawks get the No. 1 seed, a first-round by and home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs after beating the 49ers on Saturday night.
2. Bears or Eagles. If the Bears win or the Eagles lose, the Bears are the No. 2 seed. If the Bears lose and the Eagles win, the Eagles are the No. 2 seed.
3. Eagles or Bears. The team that doesn’t get the No. 2 seed gets the No. 3 seed. The Eagles are resting their starters and effectively conceding the No. 2 seed to the Bears and preparing to be the No. 3 seed.
4. Panthers or Buccaneers. If the Falcons win today, the Panthers win are the No. 4 seed. If the Falcons lose or tie today, the Buccaneers are the No. 4 seed.
5. 49ers or Rams. If the Rams lose or tie today, the 49ers are the No. 5 seed. If the Rams win today, the Rams are the No. 5 seed.
6. Rams or 49ers. If the Rams lose or tie today, the Rams are the No. 6 seed. If the Rams win, the 49ers are the No. 6 seed.
7. Packers. The Packers are the No. 7 seed in the NFC and will open the playoffs on the road against the No. 2 seed, regardless of anything that happens in Week 18.
AFC
1. Broncos or Patriots or Jaguars. If the Broncos win or the Patriots and Jaguars both lose, the Broncos are the No. 1 seed.
If the Patriots win and the Broncos lose, the Patriots are the No. 1 seed.
If the Jaguars win and the Broncos and Patriots both lose, the Jaguars are the No. 1 seed.
2. Patriots or Broncos or Jaguars. If the Patriots and Broncos both win, the Patriots are the No. 2 seed. If the Patriots and Jaguars both lose, the Patriots are the No. 2 seed. If the Broncos win and the Jaguars lose, the Patriots are the No. 2 seed regardless of what the Patriots do.
If the Broncos lose, the Patriots win and the Jaguars lose, the Broncos are the No. 2 seed. If the Broncos lose, the Patriots lose and the Jaguars win, the Broncos are the No. 2 seed.
If the Jaguars win, the Broncos lose and the Patriots win, the Jaguars are the No. 2 seed. If the Jaguars win, the Broncos win and the Patriots lose, the Jaguars are the No. 2 seed.
3. Jaguars or Broncos or Patriots or Texans. If the Jaguars, Broncos and Patriots all win, or the Jaguars tie, thie Jaguars are the No. 3 seed. If the Jaguars and Texans both lose, the Jaguars are the No. 3 seed. If the Broncos win, the Patriots win and the Texans lose, the Jaguars are the No. 3 seed regardless of what the Jaguars do.
If the Broncos lose and Patriots and Jaguars both win, the Broncos are the No. 3 seed.
If the Patriots lose and the Jaguars win, the Patriots are the No. 3 seed.
If the Texans win and the Jaguars lose, the Texans are the No. 3 seed.
4. Steelers or Ravens. If the Steelers beat or tie the Ravens on Sunday Night Football, the Steelers are the No. 4 seed. If the Ravens win, the Ravens are the No. 4 seed.
5. Texans or Jaguars or Chargers or Bills. If the Texans and Jaguars both win, the Texans are the No. 5 seed. If the Texans, Chargers and Bills all lose, the Texans are the No. 5 seed. If the Jaguars win and the Chargers and Bills lose, the Texans are the No. 5 seed regardless of what the Texans do.
If the Jaguars lose, the Texans win and the Bills lose, the Jaguars are the No. 5 seed. (There are also scenarios that see the Jaguars as the 5 seed based on the strength of victory tiebreaker with the Chargers.)
If the Chargers win and the Texans lose, the Chargers are the No. 5 seed. If the Chargers win and the Jaguars lose, the Chargers could also get the No. 5 seed based on clinching the strength of victory tiebreaker over the Jaguars.
If the Bills win, the Chargers lose and either the Texans or Jaguars lose, the Bills are the No. 5 seed.
6. Chargers or Jaguars or Texans or Bills. If the Chargers, Texans and Jaguars all win, the Chargers are the No. 6 seed. If the Chargers and Bills both lose, the Chargers are the No. 6 seed. If the Texans win and the Bills lose, the Chargers are the No. 6 seed regardless of what the Chargers do.
If the Jaguars and Chargers both lose, and the Texans and Bills both win, the Jaguars are the No. 6 seed.
If the Texans lose and either the Bills lose and Chargers win, or the Bills win and Chargers lose, the Texans are the No. 6 seed.
If the Bills win, the Chargers lose and the Texans and Jaguars both win, the Bills are the No. 6 seed. If the Bills win, the Chargers win and the Texans lose, the Bills are the No. 6 seed.
7. Bills or Jaguars or Texans or Chargers. If the Bills lose, the Bills are the No. 7 seed. If the Chargers, Texans and Jaguars all win, the Bills are the No. 7 seed regardless of what the Bills do.
If the Jaguars lose and the Texans, Chargers and Bills all win, the Jaguars can be the No. 7 seed if the Chargers clinch the strength of victory tiebreaker over the Jaguars.
If the Texans lose and the Chargers and Bills both win, the Texans are the No. 7 seed.
If the Chargers lose and the Bills win, the Chargers are the No. 7 seed.
Saturday’s Panthers-Buccaneers game included a bizarre sequence in which a backward pass hit the ground, was picked up by Carolina running back Rico Dowdle, and was blown dead. Initially, referee Brad Allen mistakenly said the ball went out of bounds.
It absolutely didn’t.
Carolina continued the drive at the spot of the recovery, giving the Panthers second and 17 from the Tampa Bay 41.
After the game, Allen explained the outcome of the play to pool reporter Greg Auman.
“The line judge made an initial ruling of incomplete, then the down judge saw that the pass was clearly backward,” Allen said. Allen added that replay assist was not used, and that the ruling was made on the field.
Allen then was asked whether an erroneous whistle was blown, which should have given the Panthers the choice to replay the down.
“What was reported to me was the ruling on the field was a backward pass, and once it was possessed, the receiver or runner gave himself up which by rule caused the play to become dead,” Allen said. “Because of the erroneous whistle, the Panthers could have had a choice to replay the down.”
What does “could have had a choice” even mean? They either were given the option to re-play the down, or they weren’t. Given that the Panthers didn’t choose to re-do first and 10 from the 34 in lieu of second and 17 from the 41, common sense says Allen’s crew never presented them with that option.
It wasn’t just a mistake by Allen’s crew. The league office could have intervened, reminding Allen that the Panthers should have had an opportunity to re-play first down. That clearly didn’t happen.
The drive ended three plays later, with a 54-yard field goal attempt that came up short. In a game that was decided by two points.
So, yeah, the failure to give the Panthers first and 10 from the Tampa 34 instead of second and 17 from the 41 may have impacted the outcome of the game and, if the Saints beat the Falcons on Sunday, the resolution of the NFC South champion.
With the Panthers down 16-7 from the Tampa 20 with 11:16 to play, Carolina coach Dave Canales dialed up an ill-fated flea flicker on first and 10.
Running back Rico Dowdle slipped after getting the handoff, and made an awkward pitch back to quarterback Bryce Young. Young tried to scoop the ball up and keep going. The effort failed, and the Buccaneers recovered.
After the 16-14 loss, Canales defended the decision.
“It was an aggressive call, knew they were gonna play us in single high right there, and we just — Rico slipped on the exchange, and we took a shot right there. I like the call,” Canales told reporters. “I like the opportunity that it presented us right there in the red zone to take advantage of it, and we didn’t get that done.”
Canales emphasized that Dowdle simply slipped. The Panthers coach also declined to share any details about how the play would have unfolded, but for the miscue.
“I don’t want to get into that,” Canales said. “We have another game potentially. . . . It’s just an aggressive call that I had the right look on.”
Right look or not, the field conditions weren’t conducive to trickery. Which the Panthers learned the hard way.
The Panthers blew their chance to win the NFC South on Saturday night, which forces them to become Falcons fans for a day. If Atlanta beats New Orleans on Sunday, the Panthers will become division champs via the round-robin tiebreaker among three 8-9 teams — Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Atlanta.
Many will say Carolina’s opportunity was impaired by multiple officiating errors. After the 16-14 loss, coach Dave Canales steered clear of criticizing the folks in black and white.
“I don’t really want to get into that because we just didn’t play well enough, offensively speaking,” Canales told reporters. “We didn’t get our run game going. A bad day on third down, which doesn’t give us an opportunity to extend the drives and really have a balanced offense the way that we can play. Some missed opportunities out there. So it really just has to be on us and about the execution and all of us making sure we’re, you know, in the right plays at the right time.”
The weather impacted both teams, too, but it definitely seems as though the officiating created more issues for the road team. In the end, it won’t matter if the Falcons, favored by three, can beat the Saints.
The problem for the Falcons (and for the Panthers) is that Atlanta has a 4-1 record at night, and a 3-8 record in afternoon games. On multiple occasions, they’ve followed a prime-time win with a clunker.
The Panthers will be praying that the Falcons get the engine running smoothly against the Saints. Carolina also will be hoping that the outcome won’t be affected by the officials.
Unless, of course, officiating affects the game in a way that helps the Falcons.
The Buccaneers won.
And now they wait.
Tampa Bay will have a chance to make it to the postseason after defeating Carolina 16-14 on Saturday.
But the winner of the NFC South will be determined by Sunday’s matchup between the Falcons and Saints. If Atlanta wins, Carolina will be headed to the postseason as the winners of a three-way tie.
The Buccaneers started the game with urgency, going up 10-0 with a Baker Mayfield touchdown pass, followed by a Chase McLaughlin 29-yard field goal to go up 10-0.
A Mayfield interception led to Bryce Young’s first touchdown pass of the day, which went to Tommy Tremble for an 8-yard score. But McLaughlin connected on another field goal at the end of the second quarter to give the Bucs a 13-7 lead at halftime.
No one was able to score in the third quarter, with Panthers kicker Ryan Fitzgerald missing a 54-yard field goal short early in the period.
But after another McLaughlin field goal early in the fourth quarter to make it 16-7, the Panthers had a good opportunity to score with the ball at the Tampa Bay 20-yard line. But that’s when a bizarre flea-flicker play call went completely wrong, with Rico Dowdle losing his footing on the wet grass and bungling the pitch back to Young. Linebacker Lavonte David recovered the loose ball for a takeaway, ending Carolina’s scoring threat.
The Panthers did make it a two-point game after Young completed a long, fourth-down pass to Tetairoa McMillan, followed by Young’s touchdown pass to receiver Jalen Coker.
But the Panthers could not get a stop on defense, with Mayfield converting third-and-4 with a 20-yard pass to Cade Otton.
By the time Carolina got the ball back, the club had just 18 seconds and no timeouts. A pitch play at the end of the game did not work and the Bucs had improved to 8-9.
Still, even after losing the game, the Panthers will win the NFC South via tiebreakers if the Falcons beat the Saints on Sunday. If New Orleans wins or the game ends in a tie, then Tampa Bay will be the NFC’s No. 4 seed as division champion.
Tampa Bay finished the game with 21 first downs, 338 total yards, and 8-of-15 on third down. The Panthers had 16 first downs, 285 yards, and were 1-of-8 on third down.
Carolina did not run it effectively at all, as Rico Dowdle finished with just 10 yards on seven carries while Chuba Hubbard also had 10 yards on five carries.
Young was 24-of-35 for 266 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. McMillan had four catches for 85 yards.
On the other side, Mayfield was 16-of-22 for 203 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Otton led with 94 yards on seven catches with a TD. Bucky Irving had 85 yards on 26 carries to shoulder the offensive load.
