Saturday night at Arrowhead the Kansas City Chiefs host the Miami Dolphins, streaming exclusively on Peacock. The game features a myriad of storylines, not the least of which will be the weather. The forecast is calling for high winds and real feel temps below zero. It is also a rematch of the Week 9 meeting of these two clubs in Frankfurt, Germany. This will also be Tyreek Hill’s first game back in Kansas City. Speaking of firsts, it is Tua’s first playoff game, and it is also Taylor Swift’s first playoff game.
The Boys of Bet the EDGE took all these factors into account (minus the Taylor Swift piece), and they broke down the Super Wildcard Weekend matchup on Tuesday’s episode.
Sign up to stream the Peacock Wild Card Exclusive between the Dolphins and Chiefs, only on Peacock, Saturday, Jan. 13 at 8 p.m. ET. Visit PeacockTV.com/NFL for details.
Miami Dolphins (+180) @ Kansas City (-218) | Spread: Chiefs -4 | O/U: 44
Jay Croucher (@croucherJD) opened reflecting on that game in Week 9 and questioning the line.
“Frankly, I think the Dolphins outplayed the Chiefs for large quantities of that game. So Drew, do you think this line’s too big (in favor of the Chiefs)?”
Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper) agrees with the line primarily because of the position the Dolphins are in following their loss in the season finale to Buffalo.
“Obviously, they are losers in terms of championship equity moving from the No. 2 to the No. 6 seed. That’s not good for the long-term viability of the Dolphins as a contender in the AFC. This is now a nasty draw for them going to Kansas City and playing in the frigid weather.”
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Memories of Miami in Frankfurt are fleeting for Dinsick.
“I think you’re looking at a very different handicap of both of these teams today relative to that game in November. I think it starts really with the Miami defense and what they have left. ...Your pass rush now depends on Melvin Ingram being an effective pass rusher and he was signed in the middle of December. So that’s not great. You’re up against a very, very effective pass protection unit for Kansas City … Mahomes should have time to operate and if he has any kind of chemistry cooking with Travis Kelce and this wide receiving crew then Miami’s in deep trouble.”
Dinsick later focused on Miami’s woes on offense.
“The Miami offense right now feels like there’s a little bit of a vote of no confidence in Tua, which is not how you want to be heading into his first playoff start where the stakes go up. If you believe in the performance you’ve seen from him in high leverage games, well, it’s about to get even more high leverage. So that does not necessarily spell great things for what to expect there.”
Croucher put forth an interesting question as he began his deeper dive into the game.
“When’s the last time Kansas City played a game that was impressive? ... I just think that the offense is stuck in the mud. I think that there are still some people who just think that it’s magically going to get better now that we’re in the playoffs … the offense just isn’t there this year and I think the defense, which going into that blockbuster Monday night game against the Eagles people told me the Chiefs’ defense was the best or a top two unit … They haven’t really been that good in the second half of the season.”
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He went on to discuss Miami’s offense.
“What makes this offense special outside of Tyreek Hill is just their speed and their ability to run the ball and [Mike] McDaniel’s run game scheme. We saw that against the Bills on Sunday night where their greatest success was on the ground with [De’Von] Achane doing Achane things and I think that will match up pretty well against Kansas City, particularly if the conditions aren’t great.”
Croucher agrees with Dinsick, though, in that the lack of able bodies on defense for the Dolphins is a real concern.
“My hesitation is with Miami’s health on defense. That would be my one reservation. … I mean, they gave up 56 points to Baltimore and again … and they were healthier then, than they are now. They only gave up 14 points on defense to Buffalo, but the Bills moved the ball at will that game. … If you don’t have a pass rush, how much confidence do you have in being able to stop Mahomes?”
In the end, the two agreed to disagree. Dinsick is leaning Chiefs and Croucher is leaning Dolphins.
Enjoy the game on Peacock and enjoy a sweat or two.
*odds courtesy of DraftKings
