With Patrick Mahomes not having his typical MVP-caliber season, the race for the league’s top individual on-field honor has averaged a different favorite at least every two weeks in 2023. Lets review all and their current odds at DraftKings.
Rightfully so, the Chiefs’ Mahomes (+5000) was favored to open the season. Things are, if not broken, at least wonky in Kansas City with no signs of getting right. Would you, though, still prefer to step on the field with him more than any other quarterback on the planet? Without question.
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Jalen Hurts of the Eagles (+2500) then ran from the front for a moment, but as in Kansas City, the Eagles’ offense just has not clicked to date this season. Plenty of weapons on offense supported by a solid offensive line, but it has not resulted in a comfortable win since probably the end of September. Maybe the Philly defense is more to blame, but that said, losses to Dallas and Seattle doomed the Hurts candidacy more than anything else.
Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa (+1000) has always been a media darling. He was the talk of the town as Mike McDaniel’s offense was unleashed (remember when they put up 70 on the Broncos?!) on the league. He fell out of favor for a couple of reasons not the least of which is the Dolphins’ failure to win a big game the first three months of the season.
His teammate, Tyreek Hill (+2200), is the other reason. The Dolphins’ wideout is what makes the Miami offense work. Everyone sees that but tried to ignore it until Hill was injured a few weeks ago. His absence from the lineup curbed that offense almost immediately. However, the MVP is almost exclusively an award for quarterbacks and so even in such an unpredictable year as 2023 has been, the case for players like Tyreek and our next candidate fall short.
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Christian McCaffrey (+400) has remained at the forefront of the conversation more so than Tyreek. He is the one running back in football with staying power when it comes to consideration for the award. His production is consistently top shelf. The quarterback, though, controls the game more than any other player on the field and that fact has not eliminated McCaffrey and Hill, but it has marginalized their efforts more than it should.
Thus we return to the evolving list of top candidates and it leads us to Dak Prescott (+2000). The Dallas signal-caller has been career-best the last couple of months. As is the case with Tua, the public likes Dak. They want to see the quarterback of America’s Team succeed. He is the reigning NFL Man of the Year. He seemed to have that MVP-defining moment driving the length of the field late in the game against the Dolphins this past weekend only to see his odds plummet thanks to a toothless Dallas defense on the ensuing drive by Miami.
Brock Purdy (+1200) was the next hot name until he turned into a pumpkin following the four-interception implosion at home Christmas night against the Baltimore Ravens. The old Mike Tyson line of everyone having a plan until they are punched in the mouth jumped to the forefront as we watched Baltimore’s defense dole out some pain to the former Mr. Irrelevant. As an aside, does that outing linger with the young signal-caller into the playoffs? Not irrelevant to consider moving forward.
All those twists and turns have led us to Lamar Jackson (-170). The Baltimore Ravens’ quarterback is the leader in the clubhouse. Baltimore’s offense may not be as special as that of San Francisco or Miami, but that just makes the case all that much stronger for Jackson. The former MVP and Heisman winner has led Baltimore to the best record in football.
It seems like it would be too easy though for this award to just stop changing hands with a Ravens’ win over the Dolphins this weekend. The roller coaster ride this award has taken voters on this season seems destined for a final twist. Tua comes up big in Baltimore and things surely change. Its possible McCaffrey’s candidacy takes a giant step forward if he crushes it the next two weeks to help secure the top seed in the NFC for the 49ers. Dak and the Cowboys can still claim the NFC East. Looming on the periphery is Josh Allen (+1300). An AFC East title is still within reach for a team that got off to a horrid start this season.
Bottom line: Get into the Futures Markets at your own peril. The sweat this season over the NFL MVP market has been like no other in recent memory…until you look at the NFL Coach of the Year market in 2023. We’ll save that, however, for another day.
Enjoy Week 17 and enjoy the sweat.
*odds courtesy of DraftKings
