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PFT’s Week Seven picks

Chris Simms and Mike Florio draft their most important matchups for Week 7, including the Ravens' secondary against the Seahawks' receivers.

MDS is building his lead.

Through six weeks, he’s now up six games. Last week, he was right on two of our three disagreements. For the week, he went 10-4 and I was 9-5.

For the year, he’s now at 57-35. I’m at 51-41.

This week, we disagree on four games. If he sweeps, I may have to concede.

Chiefs at Broncos

MDS’s take: This game looks a lot more competitive now than it would have looked a couple weeks ago. But I do believe the Chiefs will snap their two-game losing streak and get an important division road win.

MDS’s pick: Chiefs 30, Broncos 20.

Florio’s take: Patrick Mahomes is hobbled, and the Broncos are on a hot streak. If they can control the clock and keep the K.C. offense on the sideline, Denver can continue to reverse that ugly early-season slide.

Florio’s pick: Broncos 24, Chiefs 23.

49ers at Washington

MDS’s take: Washington’s offense will do nothing against the great San Francisco defense.

MDS’s pick: 49ers 16, Washington 3.

Florio’s take: Special season continues for the 49ers, as Kyle Shanahan takes delight in sticking it to the dysfunctional franchise where he once was employed.

Florio’s pick: 49ers 34, Washington 13.

Cardinals at Giants

MDS’s take: This game is only interesting because of Kyler Murray vs. Daniel Jones, but the reason I’m picking the Giants is I have more faith in their defense than I do in Arizona’s.

MDS’s pick: Giants 20, Cardinals 17.

Florio’s take:Kyler Murray and company are surging, and Daniel Jones and company are stumbling. But the Giants have been losing to good teams, and the Cardinals have been beating some of the worst. New York gets on track — and remains surprisingly alive in the NFC East race.

Florio’s pick: Giants 27, Cardinals 21.

Texans at Colts

MDS’s take: The Texans can take control of the AFC South with a win here, which would put them a game and a half ahead of the Colts and give them the tiebreaker. I think they’ll do it on the strength of a big game from Deshaun Watson.

MDS’s pick: Texans 30, Colts 17.

Florio’s take: It’s round one of the AFC South title series, with the Texans surging and the Colts rested, both teams having beaten the Chiefs in Kansas City. Home team gets the edge.

Florio’s pick: Colts 24, Texans 20.

Raiders at Packers

MDS’s take: I’m not convinced the Packers are as good as their record suggests, but they keep finding ways to win, sometimes with help from the officials, and they should beat the Raiders.

MDS’s pick: Packers 21, Raiders 20.

Florio’s take: Jon Gruden returns to Green Bay, where he spent three seasons become his career took off. With two weeks to get ready, he’ll have something up his sleeve for a Packers team that may not be as good as their record suggests — and that may know they stole one on Monday night.

Florio’s pick: Raiders 24, Packers 23.

Vikings at Lions

MDS’s take: The Lions suffered a heartbreaking loss on Monday night, and that kind of game is hard to come back from. A loss here drops them far down in the NFC North race.

MDS’s pick: Vikings 31, Lions 24.

Florio’s take: This is precisely the kind of game that it seems like the Vikings and Kirk Cousins will win, and that they then will find a way to lose it.

Florio’s pick: Lions 24, Vikings 20.

Jaguars at Bengals

MDS’s take: The Jaguars showed by trading Jalen Ramsey that they’re more about building for the future than winning now, but even then they should beat the terrible Bengals.

MDS’s pick: Jaguars 24, Bengals 21.

Florio’s take: The Jaguars are better than their record suggests. The Bengals are exactly what their record suggests.

Florio’s pick: Jaguars 23, Bengals 13.

Dolphins at Bills

MDS’s take: The Bills keep marching toward the playoffs thanks in large part to an easy schedule.

MDS’s pick: Bills 38, Dolphins 14.

Florio’s take: Even the Bills are 16.5-point favorites against the Gang That Couldn’t Tank Straight. The Dolphins won’t win in Ryan Fitzpatrick’s return to Buffalo, but they’ll keep it interesting.

Florio’s pick: Bills 20, Dolphins 10.

Rams at Falcons

MDS’s take: What can cure an ailing offense? A visit to Atlanta to face the Falcons’ defense. Jared Goff will look a whole lot better against the Falcons than he did against the 49ers.

MDS’s pick: Rams 31, Falcons 21.

Florio’s take: It’s desperation time for the Rams. Desperation time has come and gone for the Falcons.

Florio’s pick: Rams 34, Falcons 17.

Chargers at Titans

MDS’s take: Benching Marcus Mariota for Ryan Tannehill probably won’t make a lot of difference to the incompetent Titans offense. The Chargers will get back on track with a road win.

MDS’s pick: Chargers 24, Titans 14.

Florio’s take: A couple of underachieving teams get together, with the Titans turning to Ryan Tannehill. Tennessee is favored. Which is never good news for Tennessee.

Florio’s pick: Chargers 20, Titans 13.

Ravens at Seahawks

MDS’s take: This should be an outstanding game and I’ve gone back and forth on who I’m picking, but I’m going to have to take the home team.

MDS’s pick: Seahawks 24, Ravens 23.

Florio’s take: A couple of teams with a reputation for defense have potent offenses. Seattle’s is more potent.

Florio’s pick: Seahawks 31, Ravens 27.

Saints at Bears

MDS’s take: The Saints keep winning with Teddy Bridgewater, but the Bears may be the toughest defense Bridgewater has faced, and this is where I think it comes to an end.

MDS’s pick: Bears 14, Saints 7.

Florio’s take: Matt Nagy takes a page from Andy Reid and uses extra time to take down a team that has managed to win four games without its franchise quarterback, and that has a couple of other key offensive players (Alvin Kamara and Jared Cook) banged up.

Florio’s pick: Bears 23, Saints 17.

Eagles at Cowboys

MDS’s take: Dak Prescott has taken his share of criticism in recent weeks, but I’m expecting him to come back with a big game that puts the Cowboys on top of the NFC East.

MDS’s pick: Cowboys 28, Eagles 24.

Florio’s take: Doug Pederson says the Eagles are going to win, but he won’t guarantee it. He shouldn’t. Jason Garrett has a history of digging deep when his back is against the wall, and once again it is.

Florio’s pick: Cowboys 30, Eagles 24.

Patriots at Jets

MDS’s take: The Jets looked a whole lot better with the return of Sam Darnold, but facing the Patriots’ defense is something different for Darnold, who’s going to struggle on Monday night.

MDS’s pick: Patriots 21, Jets 10.

Florio’s take: The Jets are much better with Sam Darnold, but the Patriots are still the Patriots, especially with extra time to prepare.

Florio’s pick: Patriots 34, Jets 20.