Prop Challenge, Day IV: Will there be a one-yard TD on Sunday?
Leading up to Super Bowl XLIX, we’ll take a closer look at one proposition bet per day, something we’ve dubbed PFT’s Prop Challenge. Here’s the idea: we present a prop, do some light analysis, then turn it over to you to vote upon which side you would take — hypothetically, of course. (Previous examples are at the bottom of this post.)
When the Super Bowl wraps up, we’ll tally the votes and see how well PFT Planet did.
Now, let’s get to today’s prop, which is courtesy of oddsmaker William Hill U.S.:
Over-Under on Super Bowl XLIX’s shortest touchdown: 1.5 yards.
Over: +115 (lay $10 to win $11.50).
Under: -135 (lay $13.50 to win $10).
This prop boils down to one question: Will there be a one-yard touchdown in the Super Bowl?
Let’s consider some data.
Per Pro Football Reference, there have been 1,246 touchdowns scored in regular-season and postseason play in 2014.
Of those 1,246 TDs, 195 scores were one-yard long — about 15.7 percent.
Twelve of those scores have come in the first 10 postseason games of 2014, with New England tallying two and Seattle tallying one.
On average, about 4.7 touchdowns per game were scored this season, per PFR’s data, with 0.73 touchdowns of one yard per contest.
Finally, per the PFR database, there have been 42 one-yard TDs in Super Bowl history, including Seattle tailback Marshawn Lynch’s score last season.
So now, it’s up to you. Will the shortest TD in Super Bowl XLIX be OVER or UNDER 1.5 yards? The poll is open, as are the comments.
The floor is yours.
Previous props studied:
Day I: Over-Under on Brandon LaFell’s receiving yards.
Day II: Over-Under on Doug Baldwin’s catches.
Day III: Will Rob Gronkowski score a touchdown?