The NFL’s two best rookie receivers will take the field today, with first place in the NFC South up for grabs.
Buccaneers wide receiver Emeka Egbuka and Panthers wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan have been the two best rookie receivers in the league all season, and through 16 games, their stats are almost identical.
Egbuka has 62 catches for 930 yards and six touchdowns.
McMillan has 66 catches for 929 yards and seven touchdowns.
Early in the season, Egbuka was the favorite to win the NFL’s offensive rookie of the year award. As the season has gone on, Egbuka’s numbers and his team’s fortunes have declined, while McMillan and the Panthers have improved, and now McMillan is the betting favorite to win rookie of the year.
Only one of them will make the playoffs. If McMillan’s Panthers win or tie today, they win the NFC South. The Panthers would also win the NFC South if the Falcons win tomorrow. For Egbuka and the Buccaneers to win the NFC South, they need to win today and the Falcons need to lose tomorrow.
Egbuka and McMillan can both make a good closing argument today that they deserve to be the offensive rookie of the year. Egbuka’s team, however, will be rooting for another offensive rookie of the year candidate, Saints quarterback Tyler Shough, having a big game tomorrow and upsetting the Falcons. A Saints win could earn Shough the rookie of the year award, and Egbuka would likely take that deal.
We’ve been watching the various hot spots for potential postseason changes since the middle of November. One name that has become more conspicuous down the homestretch of the season is Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles.
At a time when few clear and obvious separations seem to be coming (the Raiders and Pete Carroll are the most evident), others who may be on the way out may also not be on the way out. And Bowles falls squarely into that category.
Maybe he’s safe, maybe he’s not.
Buccaneers ownership typically hold its cards very close to the vest. Which results in surprise moves. In early 2009, the Bucs stunned everyone by firing Jon Gruden and promoting Raheem Morris from defensive backs coach. In 2016, the Buccaneers surprisingly fired Lovie Smith and promoted offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter.
Then came the late March departure of Bruce Arians in 2022. It was presented as a voluntary retirement. The circumstances suggested it was linked to the unretirement of Tom Brady. And the end result was the promotion of defensive coordinator Todd Bowles, given that it was far too late to conduct a traditional search.
Bowles went 8-9 in 2022, winning the division and losing in the wild-card round to the Cowboys. In 2023, the Bucs and Bowles won the division again, with a 9-8 record. They upended the disintegrating Eagles in the first round, 32-9, before giving the Lions a better game than even Bowles seemed to realize in the divisional round. Last year, the Bucs went 10-7 and lost to the Commanders in the wild-card round.
Currently 7-9, Bowles’s overall record in nearly four full seasons is 34-33. A loss later today will drop the Bucs under Bowles to .500. (Including playoffs, he’s 35-36.)
The expectations were higher this year, and a 6-2 start in the league’s weakest top-to-bottom division made another playoff berth a no-brainer. If they fail to win today — or if they win and the Falcons win tomorrow — they will have blown what had seemed to be firmly in the bag.
If the Bucs don’t claim the NFC South crown, they’ll witness their last two offensive coordinators (Dave Canales and Liam Coen) in the postseason (with the Panthers and Jaguars, respectively) while Tampa Bay is sitting at home. That alone could be enough to get them to favor a shift to an offensive-minded coach, confident that successful seasons won’t result in an ongoing revolving door at offensive coordinator.
A separate question is whether the Bucs might blow it all up, like they did in 2009 with the firings of both Gruden and G.M. Bruce Allen. Jason Licht has held the position since 2014. He built the team that won a Super Bowl and that has been to the playoffs five straight seasons.
If the argument is that Bowles didn’t do enough with a capable team, the issue isn’t the talent. If ownership concludes that the talent isn’t where it needs to be, that’s a different issue.
However it plays out, we’ll keep waiting for ownership to fire, or not, the one specific cannon that gets loaded and lit without much warning, and at times when no one expected the loud bang.
The Panthers can make the playoffs in 2025, either by beating the Buccaneers on Saturday or by watching the Falcons beat the Saints on Sunday. If that happens, Carolina will be making a very specific type of history.
Via Doug Clawson of CBS Sports, the 8-8 Panthers would be the first team since the 1970 merge to make the playoffs despite having zero wins as the favorite.
The 3-13 Jets also have no wins as the favorite. Obviously, they won’t be making the playoffs. (Again.)
The Panthers aren’t favored in Week 18 at Tampa Bay. If the Panthers win the NFC South, they';; undoubtedly be a significant underdog in the wild-card round, against the Seahawks, 49ers, or Rams.
Carolina victories in 2025 include upset over a pair of NFC playoff teams — at the Packers and at home against the Rams. If the Panthers qualify for the postseason, they’ll have no expectations. They’ll hear talking heads say throughout the week that they’re one of the worst teams to ever make it to the playoffs.
It’s give the Panthers a natural chip on the shoulder, with no pressure whatsoever to win. The No. 5 seed (whoever it is) may look past the Panthers, especially with (if the Bears and Eagles win their wild-card games at home) a rematch coming against the NFC West rival that earns the No. 1 seed (49ers or Seahawks).
Carolina has already beaten L.A., despite being 10.5-point underdogs. While there’s a pretty good chance they won’t catch the Rams napping again, the Seahawks or 49ers could be vulnerable to a Charlotte surprise.
The Buccaneers activated defensive tackle Calijah Kancey from injured reserve on Friday, the team announced.
In a corresponding move, the Bucs waived linebacker John Bullock.
They also announced they elevated linebacker Jason Pierre-Paul from the practice squad to the active roster for the team’s Week 18 game against the Panthers. It marks Pierre-Paul’s third and final elevation of the season.
Kancey tore a pectoral muscle in a Week 2 win over the Texans, requiring surgery. The team opened his 21-day practice window on Dec. 24.
He will be on a snap count in his return, coach Todd Bowles said.
The Buccaneers’ first-round draft pick in 2023 has totaled 29 quarterback hits and, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, 73 quarterback pressures in 28 career games.
The team has made only 12 sacks the past eight games combined, with only one game of three or more sacks.
The Buccaneers need a victory against Carolina to keep their hopes for a fifth consecutive NFC South title alive. They would capture that with a win plus an Atlanta loss to New Orleans on Sunday.
Kancey is the fifth player to return to the active roster from injured reserve during the 2025 season, following safety Rashad Wisdom in Week 16, wide receivers Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan in Week 15 and tackle Luke Goedeke in Week 10. Each team is allowed to activate up to eight players from injured reserve during a season.
Saturday’s NFC South championship (sort of) between the Panthers and Buccaneers will result (on Saturday or on Sunday) in either the end of a 10-year drought or the continuation of a half-decade run.
If the Panthers win (or if the Falcons beat the Saints on Sunday), Carolina will win the division for the first time since 2015, their most recent Super Bowl appearance. If the Bucs win (and if the Saints win the next day), Tampa Bay will extend their current run as NFC South champs to five.
Carolina last made the playoffs in 2017, with an 8-8 record. That’s also the most recent season in which they won eight games.
If Tampa wins, the division champion (pending Sunday’s game) will have a losing record, and nevertheless host a wild-card game against the NFC’s No. 5 seed.
The Bucs are favored by three, despite sinking to 1-6 since starting 6-2. If they do, it all comes down to what happens on Sunday between the Saints and Falcons.
If Atlanta wins, the division goes to Carolina. If the New Orleans wins, Tampa Bay will have its fifth title in a row.
And then the division champ will be a touchdown-or-so underdog at home the following weekend, against the Seahawks, 49ers, or Rams.
