We are officially less than a month away from the start of the 2023-24 Premier League season, and I could not be more excited. Someone once asked me what makes me happy. Nothing makes me happier than waking up early and betting on football. Well, maybe winning, but still. We are so close to having our Saturday morning bets back. Until then, read the Premier League preseason betting previews, starting with the preview on Manchester City.
What to expect from Chelsea?
Last season was a season of change for Chelsea. They saw four different managers throughout the season. They opened the season with Thomas Tuchel at the helm until he was sacked in early September. Then anointed former Brighton boss Gram Potter, but he only lasted until April. After his departure, Bruno Saltor took over as interim manager for about a week. Then Frank Lampard was brought in as the caretaker for the rest of the season.
In that time, the former Champions of Europe saw a trophyless season with an exit from the Champions League in the quarterfinals, no appearances in the FA or EFL cup finals, and a 12th-place finish on the Premier League table. Failing to finish inside the top seven, Chelsea will not participate in any UEFA competition for the first time since the 2016-17 season.
It’s always difficult for any team to make considerable improvements during a managerial change. Last season they had to play with three different philosophies. Not to mention they had to manage new players and battle through injuries. Their biggest change from year-over-year was on the defensive end. In the 2021-22 season, the Blues only conceded 0.87 goals per game. Last season that number was up to 1.24.
Nonetheless, Chelsea are expected to be due for positive regression under new manager Mauricio Pochettino. Over the last year, Chelsea have welcomed in new talent. Last season they signed Marc Cucurella, Wesley Fofana, Carney Chukwuemeka, Raheem Sterling, Nomi Madueke, Enzo Fernandez, and Mykhailo Mudryk. With so many new first-team faces, it was expected to see a learning curve for them.
A year with those players and the addition of Christopher Nkunku, Nicolas Jackson, and Benoit Badiashile, Chelsea fans should see a better result than last season.
The question is, can they compete for the Premier League title? Right now FanDuel Sportsbook has them listed at +1400 to win the league. For me, that number is too short. Unfortunately, they lost Fofana for the entire season due to an ACL tear in the preseason. He was their brightest young defender. There’s no question they should be able to score this season. Their biggest issues will come defensively. A backline of Cucurella, Thiago Silva, Badiashile, and Reece James doesn’t exactly exude defensive confidence.
They need to make improvements defensively and play better on the road. Last season they only took 19 points from a possible 57 away from Stamford Bridge. They should be better, but they are not ready to seriously be a potential title contender.
How to Bet on Chelsea this Season?
Under Pochettino, we should see an attacking team that plays on the front foot and is full of energy and intensity. Through the first three matches of the preseason, Pochettino has used a 4-2-3-1 formation. My guess is that during this season, he will likely use this formation and implement a 4-3-3 formation that focuses on a mixture of aggressive pressing and overloaded attacks that stress the importance of positioning and movement. Much like Pep Guardiola’s strategy, Pochettino will look to press and regain possession from strategic positioning.
Strategically I like to attack high-pressing teams in 4-3-3 formations in the corner market. Since I’m not sold on the defensive upgrades they promise to make, they should concede a fair share. That means the Chelsea corner market should be profitable against teams who sit deep or in games where the action will be end-to-end.
Right now, I have Chelsea ranked seventh in my power ranking. I’d consider that a conservative spot for them. They finished eighth in xG but 14th in xGA. If they clean up the backline, they should be in good shape. With the great signings of Nkunku and Jackson, we can expect them to have an attack that should be feared. This makes me not like the price of betting them to finish outside the top 6 at +125, and I wouldn’t say I like the numbers on Top 4 Finish (+160) and Top 6 Finish (-210). For the Blues, I don’t have any action. I will keep them in the wait-and-see pile.
Player to Watch
Nicolas Jackson – Center-Forward
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - JULY 22: Nicolas Jackson #43 of Chelsea celebrates after scoring a goal during the second half of the pre season friendly match against the Brighton & Hove Albion at Lincoln Financial Field on July 22, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Darren Walsh/Chelsea FC via Getty Images)
Chelsea FC via Getty Images
Part of me wants to hype the signing of Nkunku and yell to the rooftops for all Chelsea supporters. I’d be doing a disservice to Jackson if Nkunku received all the praise. Early in the season, the anytime goal scorer prices on Jackson will be fire. The value will be there, and we should expect the 22-year-old striker to cash in often. After having Kai Havertz play out of position, they bring in Jackson from Villarreal after scoring 12 goals in 26 games. He could be the striker they’ve been waiting for. I’m excited about the youngster’s future in the Premier League.
