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With only one pick for today’s games, I’ll go through some of my awards bets as we pass the quarter mark of the season. I spoke to Michael Korn to get the betting splits for two of the key awards markets at PointsBet Sportsbook.
MVP:
My pick for MVP is Stephen Curry, and I’m far from the only one with that opinion. PointsBet Sportsbook took over five times the handle and over twice as many bets on Curry’s MVP odds than Kevin Durant, the second most-bet player.
Curry continues to be a cheat code for the Golden State Warriors and the future Hall-of-Famer may be playing better than ever. Curry’s three-point shot quality was a career-worst -3.42 last season, meaning his average three-point attempt was significantly more difficult than in previous seasons, unsurprising given the lack of offensive weapons around him last year, according to Basketball Index. Despite such a high degree of difficulty on his shots, Curry managed to shoot 42.1% from deep last year, including 41% on contested three-point attempts.
This season, Curry is the only player averaging at least one tightly-contested bucket from beyond the arc per game, hitting 50.9% with a defender 2-4 feet away, according to nba.com‘s tracking data. Curry also leads the league in deep three-pointers made per game and is converting on 42.6% of his shots from 25 feet or farther.
This season, Curry is also an improved defender and is a positive contributor to Golden State’s league-best defense so far. Curry graded as an average to below-average defender based on FiveThirtyEight’s Defensive RAPTOR metric over the previous five seasons but is playing significantly better to start this season. Nikola Jokić, Giannis Antentokounmpo and Durant all deserve consideration for MVP, but I think this is Curry’s award to lose.
Rookie of the Year:
The most interesting observation I found when discussing the betting splits for NBA futures with Korn was that PointsBet bettors are skeptical that Scottie Barnes will remain among the Rookie of the Year favorites. I understand the hesitancy to bet Barnes at his current odds, even after the line moved from +200 to +225. Toronto’s net rating improves by 7.1 points per 100 possessions with Barnes off the floor, which means the team has been better without the rookie on the court so far this year.
The rookie attracting the highest handle for this award at PointsBet Sportsbook is top overall pick Cade Cunningham. Cunningham missed the first four games of the regular season and after shooting just 1-of-21 from beyond the arc to start the year, he’s since settled in. Cunningham’s odds reached +650 two weeks ago but went back to +325, which is closer to his pre-injury odds at PointsBet Sportsbook. Detroit’s lack of team success could hinder Cunningham’s case, and I’m staying off at his current odds.
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Another rookie who could be limited by his team’s struggles is Josh Giddey, who attracted the second-highest handle for Rookie of the Year at PointsBet Sportsbook. Only 38.1% of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander‘s potential assists have been converted this season, the lowest rate in the league among players ranked in the top-50 for assists per game by over 7%. Over half of Giddey’s potential assists resulted in assists through the first 20 games of his career, so his assist numbers could drop if that ratio dips towards SGA’s current mark.
The rookies with the third and fifth-highest handle for Rookie of the Year are Jalen Green and Chris Duarte, respectively, but both are listed with odds above +1000 and I’m skeptical either will be real contenders for the award. My pick for Rookie of the Year continues to be Evan Mobley, who briefly reached +300 in this market but returned sooner than expected from an elbow injury and reclaimed his spot as the favorite with +175 odds for Rookie of the Year. Mobley attracted the fourth-highest handle at PointsBet Sportsbook but I think he should be the odds-on favorite barring injury. Not only is Mobley’s +2.5 estimated plus-minus head-and-shoulders above the rest of this year’s rookie class -- with Franz Wagner‘s +0.9 EPM ranking second -- he also jump-started Cleveland’s previously mediocre defense.
The Cavs ranked no better than 25th in defensive efficiency over the last four years since the last season of LeBron James‘s second stop in Cleveland, but jumped to fifth in defensive efficiency so far this year, according to Cleaning the Glass. The team allows 6.4 fewer points per 100 possessions with Mobley on the floor, and that differential ranks in the 82nd percentile at Cleaning the Glass. Cleveland’s opponents experienced a 5.6% drop in effective field goal percentage when Mobley is on the court, a 94th percentile differential, and Mobley’s +3.3 estimated defensive plus-minus ranks top-five among all NBA players this season.
Picks:
My picks crossed the +50 units threshold last night after a 19-5 (79% for +15.7 units) run since Thanksgiving, bringing my season-long record to 93-55-1 (62.84%).
My only pick tonight is a side in the battle between the Lakers and the Clippers. This will be the final matchup between these teams before the Staples Center is renamed the Crypto.com Arena on Dec. 25. I’ve been vocal about my distrust for the Lakers this season, but this is a spot where I feel comfortable taking the team for the first time this season. My bets fading the Lakers went 13-4 so far this season, the best opponent record in the league, with the Clippers just behind at 10-4. LeBron James will be back for the Lakers and as long as Anthony Davis plays, the Lakers should win this game outright.
The Clippers struggled to score so far this season, ranking only 25th in offensive rating, scoring 105 points per 100 possessions. The Lakers rank slightly ahead with a 106.2 offensive rating, 23rd in the NBA. The difference between these teams has been the Clippers’ strong defense, but that unit is on the decline over the past few weeks as the Clippers rank outside the top-10 in defensive rating over the last ten games. The Clippers went just 3-7 over the last 10 matches while the Lakers went an even 5-5 in that span.
As teams began to focus on stopping Paul George, his averages and efficiency both declined. George opened the season on a hot streak and made an early case for MVP consideration, averaging 27.6 points per game in October on 60.2% true shooting. Since then, he still played at an All-Star level but saw declines in his scoring, rebounding and assists average with a dip in true shooting down to 52.2% in November.
There has been plenty of discussion around the Lakers’ easy schedule so far this season, but the Clippers actually faced an easier schedule over the last month. Despite the second-easiest strength of schedule in November, the Clippers went just 2-8 ATS over the last 10 games.
I took this line at +2 for the Lakers, and I like the play anywhere up to the Lakers’ moneyline. There are a few other games with injuries pending that are worth watching, so keep an eye on the status of Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns against the Brooklyn Nets. If both stars play, I see value on the Timberwolves up to +7.5.
EDGE: Los Angeles Lakers +2 (1 Unit)
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