On Saturday, May 1, Medina Spirit won the 147th running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky for trainer Bob Baffert. On Sunday, May 9, Baffert was again at Churchill Downs, only this time he was discussing the fact that his seventh Derby winner had tested positive for a corticosteroid that is not allowed to be administered within 14 days of a race in the Commonwealth of Kentucky. If the pending split-sample again results in a positive test, Medina Spirit will be disqualified from his victory on the first Saturday in May – but those results will not be available for some time. In the meantime, the question remains: will Medina Spirit and his trainer, Bob Baffert, be allowed to compete in this Saturday’s Preakness Stakes at Pimlico? And, if he is allowed to, what are his chances of success in the second leg of the United States’ Triple Crown?
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While Medina Spirit is by no means a superstar, he is a worthy favorite (assuming he is allowed to run) in a race like the Preakness Stakes for a few reasons. First and foremost, he is the fastest horse in the field that is projected to be entered on Tuesday afternoon. Not only does he own the fastest Beyer Speed Figures to date (he earned a 102 Beyer when winning the Kentucky Derby), but he is also one of the quickest horses during the early portion of the race, likely landing him on the lead heading into the first of two turns at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore – the exact position which he found himself in the Kentucky Derby. If Medina Spirit and John Velazquez break alertly and make the front from the start, the race could very well be over.
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Not only would Medina Spirit have a tactical advantage in Saturday’s Preakness (should he be allowed to run), but he would also be taking on a field that is not nearly as strong as the field he faced in Louisville at the beginning of the month. The beaten favorite in this year’s Kentucky Derby, Essential Quality, is bypassing the Preakness in favor of the mile-and-one-half test of the Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park in early June. Derby runner-up Mandaloun (unless there is a disqualification, in which case he’d be awarded the victory) is also skipping the Preakness in favor of rest for key races over the summer for three-year-olds. Other significant names who are not scheduled to run in Saturday’s Preakness include Rock Your World, Known Agenda and Hot Rod Charlie. The absence of these worthy opponents leaves a group of horses headed by Midnight Bourbon, Crowded Trade and Concert Tour as the main competition for Medina Spirit in Baltimore. Something worth keeping an eye on regarding Saturday’s race and the possibility of Baffert being barred from entering horses at Pimlico: Concert Tour is also a Bob Baffert trainee, leading his status to be in question, as well.
There is sure to be more news that breaks over the next 24 hours when it comes to this entire situation, but whatever the resolution ends up being, the fact of the matter is this: if Medina Spirit is allowed to run in Saturday’s Preakness Stakes, he represents a likely winner.
