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MLB K Props, May 12: Fading Luis Gil and Zack Wheeler

Zack Wheeler

Zack Wheeler

Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports

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Luis Gil O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. White Sox

Luis Gill has been recalled from AAA to pitch in his first road start of his career...versus the White Sox.

Chicago is our favorite team this season because they are mashing RHP and LHP. The White Sox have allowed RHP to go Under 5.5 and 4.5 strikeouts 19 out of 23 games (82.6%). That is impressive.

As you can see below, Gil has cashed the Over 5.5 strikeouts five of his six career starts last year (83.3%), but all six starts came at home in Yankee Stadium. Gil was somewhat erratic in those starts with 38 Ks to 19 walks over 29.1 innings of work, per statmuse.

Luis Gil game log

Luis Gil game log

12 of the past 13 RHP have gone Under 5.5 Ks versus the White Sox with Nick Pivetta being the lone Over during that stretch. Gil tossed his four-seam fastball 53.4% of the time last season with his slider making up 39.3% and the changeup only 7.3%.

If Gil is throwing the fastball over half of the time, I like the White Sox’s chances to keep him Under four or five strikeouts.

I played Gil Under 5.5 Ks at -156 odds and would play to the -160 on PointsBet or opt for an Under 4.5 Ks for +110 or better.

Pick: Lucas Gil Under 5.5 Strikeouts (1u)

Zack Wheeler O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Dodgers

Zack Wheeler is back off the COVID list and making his first start in eight days.

Wheeler has looked great in the past two starts, so being on the COVID list will likely disrupt his momentum. The Phillies ace has five starts under his belt in 2022 but only one on the road.

Wheeler started in Miami and recorded three strikeouts, three walks, eight hits and seven earned runs in 3.0 innings of action. That marked his worst start of the season. Wheeler posted a 3.35 ERA on the road last year with a .236 OBA compared to a 2.38 ERA and .200 OBA at home.

This season, Wheeler has been average or slightly above when going through the order the first and second time.

However, in the third time through the order, Wheeler owns a .353 OBA and .979 OPS, so I doubt that Phillies push him past 5.0 innings in his return from COVID.

Starting right hand pitchers are 15-2 to the Under 5.5 strikeouts versus the Dodgers this season (88.2%), per statmuse. Hunter Greene and Yu Darvish are the only two.

RHP vs Dodgers

RHP vs Dodgers

Overall, 21 of the past 25 starting pitchers went Under 5.5 Ks versus the Dodgers (84%).

I grabbed Wheeler Under 5.5 Ks at -130 odds for 1 unit and would play out to -150.

Pick: Zack Wheeler Under 5.5 Strikeouts (1u)

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