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MLB K Props: Fade Zack Greinke, Jordan Montgomery, Marco Gonzales

Zack Greinke

Zack Greinke

Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

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Zack Greinke O/U 3.5 Strikeouts vs. Cardinals

Zack Greinke will make his second road start of the year after finally hitting the Over on his strikeout prop.

Now is a great time to go back to fading the LHP since we are 3-0 and laid off the last start. Greinke has four starts on the season with six strikeouts and three walks over 22.0 innings. He has seven earned runs compared to six strikeouts.

Current Cardinals hitters have 277 plate appearances versus Greinke. Over his lengthy career for a .252 OBA, 20.9 K% and 27 or more plate appearances versus Corey Dickerson, Paul Goldschmidt, Yadier Molina, Albert Pujols and Nolan Arenado.

That group makes up 252 of 277 PA, 61 of 64 hits, 15 of 17 walks and 46 of the 58 strikeouts, per baseball savant. I expect all to be in the lineup today with possibly Pujols sitting out.

Greinke vs STL

Greinke vs STL

Greinke has not faced the Cardinals since 2019, so they will have a much easier time versus his soft-toss.

The Cardinals have seen five starting LHP this season, and three of them recorded four or more Ks. However, St. Louis ranks top 11 in batting average, OPS, OBP and ranks first in SLG against LHP this season.

Per statmuse, the Cardinals have hit well versus the last five starting pitchers. Zach Davies, Madison Bumgarner, Humberto Castellanos, and Carlos Carrasco recorded three or fewer, while Merrill Kelly hit four Ks but needed 7.0 innings.

SP vs STL

SP vs STL

I have Greinke at 3.0 strikeouts over 6.0 innings. He is a strikeout every other inning type of guy. I expect the Cardinals to score a few runs off the 38-year-old veteran at home.

I got Greinke at +108 odds to the Under 3.5 Strikeouts and expected this to be -140 to -160. I would play it out to -160.

Pick: Zack Greinke Under 3.5 Strikeouts (1u)

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Jordan Montgomery O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Blue Jays

I was going to bet Framber Valdez Under 4.5 Ks versus the Blue Jays yesterday but wanted to see how Toronto would perform against an LHP after only facing one starting LHP (Nestor Cortes.

Well, Toronto handled Valdez and limited him to two strikeouts. Toronto managed two hits for three earned runs off Valdez with two Ks and two walks over 6.1 innings.

Cortes lasted 4.1 innings and registered five strikeouts and three hits with no earned runs or walks per statmuse.

LHP vs TOR

LHP vs TOR

Enter Jordan Montgomery of the Yankees. Montgomery has a 0.82 ERA on the road in two starts with a .158 OBA and seven strikeouts in 11.0 innings. However, those starts came in Baltimore and Detroit.

The Orioles have the most strikeouts in the MLB versus LHP, while the Tigers are middle of the pack. The Ble Jays have not struck out much versus LHP in relief and have seven Ks over 10.2 innings versus Valdez and Cortes.

Montgomery has gone Under 4.5 strikeouts in three of the four meetings with Toronto since 2020. He is Under 4.5 Ks in three of the first four starts this season despite facing Baltimore twice, Boston and Detroit.

Toronto is not comparable to those teams with its lineup and numbers. They are much better and more dangerous.

I grabbed Montgomery Under 4.5 Ks (+100) and would play this out to -140/-150, where Valdez closed at.

Pick: Jordan Montgomery Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)

Marco Gonzales O/U 3.5 Strikeouts vs. Astros

Marco Gonzales was hit with a line drive in his previous start, exiting after 11 pitches in the first inning versus the Rays.

That was Gonzales’ second road start of the season and fourth overall. After a bullpen session, Gonzales is a go, and now he will face the Astros in Houston. Yikes. Welcome back.

In Gonzales’ career against Houston, he owns a 9.9 K% and 15.0 whiff % versus current hitters, per baseball savant. The Astros own a .329 OBA, .448 SLG and have over triple the hits to strikeouts (47 to 15).

Marco vs hou

Marco vs hou

In three of his five career starts at Houston, Gonzales has gone Under 3.5 strikeouts (60%). He has much better numbers at home versus the Astros as he struggles in Houston, like most pitchers.

Gonzales allowed three or more earned runs in four of the past five trips to Houston and walked 14 batters in five starts.

Marco at hou

Marco at hou

Gonzales made one other road start besides the Rays. It was his opener at Minnesota, and Gonzales lasted 2.0 innings with one strikeout and 61 pitches.

He has yet to show anything on the road yet. Houston should be a challenging environment and lineup.

I grabbed Gonzales Under 3.5 strikeouts for -115 odds. I would play this out to -140.

Pick: Marco Gonzales Under 3.5 Strikeouts (1u)

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