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Zack Greinke O/U 3.5 Strikeouts vs. Astros
Zack Greinke will be making his first road start since May 29 and his first game against the Astros since 2018.
Greinke owns a 6.90 ERA on the road, along with a .294 OBA and 19 strikeouts over 30.0 innings and six starts. That is 0.63 Ks per inning and based on how Houston is hitting lately, Greinke will have a challenge.
The Royals veteran has faced six Astros hitters in his career, per baseball savant, and that group owns a .271 BA, 16 hits in 63 plate appearances, a 15.9 K% and 18.4 whiff %.
On the season, Greinke ranks in the worst and second to worst percentages for K% and whiff %, as he is posting career-lows in both. His K% is 11.1% this season. You can see all of his poor ranks below from baseball savant.
Houston ranks top six in BA, OPS, SLG and OBP over the last seven days with 54 total strikeouts over seven games (7.7 Ks per game). The Astros have faced four starting pitchers in July so far and only one surpassed 5.0 innings, while that group totaled 15 earned runs.
Jon Heasley and Michael Lorenzen finished with three Ks versus Houston, Jose Suarez recorded four and Patrick Sandoval totaled nine Ks against Houston this month. With Sandoval’s nine-K performance, the Astros still average 4.75 strikeouts to the starting pitching this month, so I like the chances Greinke hits three or fewer Ks.
I played Greinke Under 3.5 Ks at -130 odds last night and it’s out to -155, which is the farthest I’d play this.
Pick: Zack Greinke Under 3.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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Yankees (-225) at Pirates (+190): O/U 9.0
The Pittsburgh Pirates had July 4th off, meaning they are an auto fade on July 5th.
Pittsburgh is 0-10 on the ML (0%) and 3-7 ATS (30%) following a day of rest this season, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
The Pirates are 0-3 ATS in the past three games following rest, losing all. three outings by two runs each. The only covers are against the Padres, Tigers and Cubs this year off rest -- not exactly an impressive list.
The Yankees also had July 4th off. When New York has had a day off this season, they are 9-0 on the ML (100%) and 8-1 ATS (88.8%), covering six straight, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
The last time that the Yankees played in Pittsburgh was 2017 and before that, 2008, so not very often these two meet, but the day of rest trends point to Yankees all day.
The matchup is former Pirate Jameson Taillon versus current Bucco José Quintana. Taillon is 9-1 with a 3.32 ERA this season, including a 2.70 ERA and .236 OBA away from Yankee Stadium. This will be his first start at PNC Park as the opposing pitcher.
Quintana is 1-4 with a 3.43 ERA overall and decent home numbers at a 3.15 ERA and .250 OBA. However, Quintana has not faced the Yankees since 2016 as a starter and got 1.1 innings of work in 2021 as a Los Angeles Angel, but that was as a reliever.
Quintana should get worked today after looking above average against the Nationals and Cubs. I played the Yankees on the Run Line at -130 odds. I would play this out to -150 or parlay the Yankees ML with your favorite play.
Pick: Yankees -1.5 (1.5u)
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