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Zach Thompson O/U 6.5 Strikeouts vs. Braves
Zach Thompson will take the mound for the third time versus the Atlanta Braves this season to open the final series before the All-Star break.
Miami is coming off three wins in the past four games, almost a sweep of the Dodgers. Atlanta has won six of the previous 10, including taking two of three over Miami in that span.
In Thompson’s two starts versus Atlanta, he hit the Over 5.5 strikeouts with six in both games. Now, the Sportsbook are raising his line to 6.5 for this matchup, meaning he is 0-2 against Atlanta this season.
He lasted 5.0 and 6.0 innings over both games and In the first start, he tossed 66 pitches compared to 87 in the previous.
Also, in the first start, Thompson did not allow a run, just four hits over 5.0 innings -- he earned the win.
In the second start versus the Braves, Thompson allowed three runs on five hits with one walk in 6.0 innings. Miami lost 8-7 in extra innings.
The Braves have a 22.8% strikeout rate versus Thompson, excluding pitchers Charlie Morton and Max Fried. Morton will start opposite of Thompson tonight and has one hit and one strikeout in two ABs.
Thompson will see eight right-handed batters in the Braves’ lineup. Versus RHB, Thomspon has 16 strikeouts in 51 AB (31.3%) compared to 15-of-37 (40.5%) against LHB.
While those strikeout percentages are incredibly high, Thompson has only pitched 24.0 innings, and 11.0 have come against Atlanta. For a rookie, seeing a team like the Braves for the third time should not be favorable.
Freddie Freeman is the only lefty in the lineup. Ozzie Albies and Abraham Almonte are both switch-hitters. I do think the move of Kevan Smith at catcher is interesting and more than likely a free strikeout to Thompson, along with Morton.
The Braves have some hot hitters over the last four to five games -- five of the primary seven batters are hitting .278-plus, per MLB.com.
NBC’s model predicts Thompson to record 6.8 strikeouts in 5.2 innings. This should be a close call as Thompson will likely record somewhere in the neighborhood of five to seven strikeouts, unless the Braves get to him early.
However, I am ready for regression to hit in his sixth start, especially coming against the same opponent for the third time.
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Per baseballsavant.com, Thompson’s spin rate has been declining, and in his last start against the Braves, his spin hit a season-low for the rookie. His cutter and fastball are the best two pitchers. As long as Atlanta does not fall strikeout-prone to the cutter, an Under seems ideal.
Over the last seven days and six games, the Braves have 49 strikeouts (T-9th fewest) and 28 walks (2nd-most). Atlanta is hitting .255 (13th) and ranks third in OBP (.355) in that span, and post similar numbers overall in the past 15 days.
Thompson has recorded 1, 6, 7, 11 and 6 strikeouts in his first five starts of his career, hitting the Over 6.5 strikeouts twice (40%) and 5.5 Ks four times (80%). Big difference in that one strikeout.
Fading a 6-foot-7 giant like Thompson is not an easy thing to do, but seven strikeouts versus the same opponent for a third time over the previous five starts and six overall is not a favorable position for a rookie pitcher. I think Atlanta can figure Thompson out this game, as they started to in the previous meeting.
Pick: Zach Thompson Under 6.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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