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We’ve got a packed slate of baseball to bet on Friday and I’ve picked out two games which I’m seeing plenty of value in. Let’s get to them.
Boston Red Sox (+195) vs. New York Yankees (-230) Total: 7.5
I’m a staunch believer in the Yankees these days. After all, they’ve won eight out of their last 10 and four in a row. With that said, I’m skeptical on Friday with Gerrit Cole on the hill.
No, I’m not fading the Yankees, rather fading Cole and Red Sox starter Rich Hill. Cole owns a 5.40 ERA against Boston this season and has allowed three or more runs against them on three of four occasions. The most recent was just a week ago, when he surrendered four runs to the Sox in six innings. In all, he’s allowed seven homers in the four stints.
The Red Sox are seventh in wRC+ over the last two weeks and the Yankees first. New York is on an absolute heater and has demolished lefties, and Rich Hill should be the next to fall in line. I’ll go with the over here, which is a great deal.
Edge: Over 7.5
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San Francisco Giants (-175) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (+150) Total: 8
If you see the Giants as road favorites, you should normally take them. They’re 21-14 on the moneyline in these spots, and just as importantly 21-17 against the run line for a profit of 2.09 units.
This is a great spot to play SF considering the pitching matchup. First off, Tommy Henry has been awful for Arizona. He owns a 5.50 ERA next to a measly 15.5% strikeout rate, which should really hurt his chances against a Giants team whose Achilles heel is the punchout.
Then, there’s Carlos Rodón, who has been one of the best in baseball with a 2.71 xERA and who will face a Diamondbacks team ranked 29th in wRC+ to lefties. This is a huge mismatch, and I’ll be laying the runs.
Edge: Giants -1.5
