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Brad Keller O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Red Sox
Brad Keller has had a rough June, and this start won’t get any easier.
Keller met the Red Sox once this season, coming just 10 days ago on June 19th. Keller pitched 5.0 innings and 92 pitches for four strikeouts to three walks. He earned the loss, allowing five earned runs on five hits.
He has lost four straight starts, allowing 20 earn runs in that span to 12 walks and 16 strikeouts. He has five starts overall in June and 0.83 strikeouts per inning average compared to 0.88 on the season.
His first start versus Boston came at home. This time, the game will be in Boston. On the road this season, Keller has an OBA of .313 and .339 overall in June. His June ERA is 7.82, and he has gone 5.0 or 5.1 innings in all five starts.
On the season, Keller has posted less than stellar percentile ranks, while owning three main pitches, per baseballsavant.com. Over the last 50, 100 and 250 plate appearances, Keller has steadily stayed below the league average in xwOBA.
Keller is throwing the fastball 62% of the time, which is concerning. He throws four pitches in total (sinker not shown) and has watched the swing percentage, plus swing and miss percentage on all four decline since the crackdown on substances.
NBC’s model projects Keller to record 5.1 strikeouts in 6.1 innings. Keller has lasted 6.0 inning or longer three times all season. He has started 16 games. I don’t think Keller goes past 5.0 innings today.
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A few players that have had success against Keller that will be or can be in the starting lineup are Xander Bogaerts (.333), Bobby Dalbec (1.000), J.D. Martine (.250) and Alex Verdugo (.500). Those four have a combined one strikeout in 18 at-bats versus Keller.
Overall, Boston is 17th to right-handed pitchers over the last 30 days in strikeout percentage with 22.9% -- down from 24.6% on the season. The Red Sox held Keller to four strikeouts or fewer in all four career meetings with Boston.
Boston is hitting .264 the last seven days and seven games (8th) with the fifth-most runs in that span (35) and tied for the fourth-most hits (60). At home this season, Boston is hitting .267 (4th), 15th in total strikeouts with 8.19 per game (336 in 41 games) and fifth in runs (209).
Keller has hit the Over 4.5 strikeouts 7-of-16 times (43.7%), meaning the Under has a 56.3% hit rate this season. This number dropped from 5.5 strikeouts after the past few games, rightfully so. On the road, Keller has hit the Under 4.5 strikeouts in 5-of-8 (62.5%) games.
For the first time in his career, Keller is currently posting a minus WAR (-0.8) after a career-low in 2020 (+1.7). His eight losses are the second-most of his career (14), and his ERA is the worst of his four-year career (6.39).
Back Keller’s struggles to continue in Boston as the Red Sox’s offense has been unforgiving the last four games with 24 combined runs.
Pick: Brad Keller Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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