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Jose Urena O/U 2.5 Strikeouts vs. Indians
The Cleveland Indians poured in 13 runs on the Detroit Tigers yesterday. Now Jose Urena takes the mound. Lovely for the Indians.
The Indians have the second-fewest strikeouts over the last seven days at 35 strikeouts in five games (7.0 per game). On the other hand, Cleveland is hitting .264 in that span (7th) and .253 (12th) in the last 15 days and 13 games.
Cleveland ranks second in strikeout percentage to right-handed pitchers with 20% over the last 30 days. Urena just faced Houston, who leads the league in K% vs RHP and Urena managed one strikeout.
On the season, Cleveland strikes out to righties 22.6% of the time (9th-best) but has improved over the past month.
However, Urena has not. In June, Urena’s ERA is 12.89, and he has allowed 26 hits, 24 runs, 21 earned to 10 walks and seven strikeouts in four starts across 14.2 innings pitched.
He is getting bombed right now, and the Indians bats looked great last night.
NBC’s model projects Urena to record 4.2 strikeouts in 5.2 innings pitched, but I do not think he makes it that far in this outing. Urena has failed to reach 5.0 innings in the last three starts, combining for 18 earned runs in those 9.2 innings.
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Urena has struggled with his spin rate on the season, but since the crackdown, it is terrible. Per baseballsavant.com, you can see Urena’s rates drop right around that last May start and the first June start.
He is also primarily a fastball pitcher, throwing it over 60% of the time, and in the 23rd percentile for fastball spin means more contact.
Urena has four straight starts now with losses and this looks like another one. The Indians’ bats have improved over the last week, and dating back in the past 15 days, Cleveland has scored four or more runs in 9 of the previous 13 games.
The Tigers starting pitcher has given up at least three runs in six of the last seven starts, combining for 30 earn runs to 14 walks and 11 strikeouts in that span. Back his struggles to continue on the road.
Urena is 2-5 in seven road starts with a 4.83 ERA, .267 OBA and an abysmal 0.65 strikeout per inning average. At night, Urena’s strikeout per inning average declines to 0.54, and so does his OBA (.304) and ERA (5.08).
For +125 odds, I will take my swing at Urena (and probably get a hit).
Pick: Jose Urena Under 2.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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