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Kyle Kuzma O/U 22.5 Points vs. Pistons
Kristaps Porzingis remains out for the Wizards, so it’s still Kyle Kuzma‘s team.
In two of the three games post All-Star Weekend, Kuzma scored 34 and 36 points versus the Cavaliers and Spurs. He went 26-of-49 (53%) from the field, 11-of-16 (68.7%) from three and 7-of-8 (87.5%) from the free-throw line.
Kuzma ended the All-Star break hot with 22, 23 and 26 points before scoring 5, 34 and 36 in his last three games. Over the last four meetings versus Detroit, Kuzma has scored 22 or more points in three of the last four, including both times this year.
Detroit allows 38% of its opponents’ threes to go down in the past three games (24th) and 29.7 free-throw attempts (24th) per game. Over February, the Pistons allowed 117.6 points per game (23rd), 48.7% from the field (25th) and 40.6% from three (last) on defense.
Kuzma is primed for another potential 30-plus point game. This season, Kuzma has recorded four 30-point games, including two straight.
He followed up three of those 30-point games with 34, 25 and 24 point efforts for 27.6 points per game. Those three games follow-up games came against the Cavs, Bucks and Rockets.
Kuzma last played on Friday, which means the Wizards had three rest days. Off three days of rest or more, Kuzma averages 18.8 points per game in six contests this season, his highest scoring average of any split.
Out of 30 NBA teams, Kuzma’s 19.8 points per game average against the Pistons is the second-most versus any team for his career. He averages 20.2 ppg versus the Rockets.
With the increased usage versus a sub .500 team, let’s roll with Kuzma Over 22.5 Points (+100) as he has the chance to lead not only his team in scoring -- but the game as well.
PointsBet already moved this to 23.5, at that point I would look at a 25-plus alternative for +125 or better.
Pick: Kyle Kuzma Over 22.5 Points (1u)
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Luka Doncic O/U 31.5 Points vs. Lakers
Luka Doncic and the Mavericks will make a trip to the Staples Center, I mean the Crypto whatever, for a nightcap of the NBA slate.
The Mavericks are without Kristaps Porzingis since the trade, which has benefited the Over on Doncic’s props.
Without Porzingis, Doncic has scored at least 30 points in seven of the last 10 games per statmuse.
Over those 10 games, Doncic averaged 34.7 points per game and 31.7 points per game away from Dallas during that span.
Doncic scored 23 and 34 points in his two games post the All-Star Weekend versus the Jazz and Warriors. The Lakers’ defense will be much easier to navigate through.
The Lakers allow the most points per game in the NBA to point guards at 24.85. Los Angles also permits the second-most rebounds (7.11) and the fourth-most assists (9.03), which means Doncic is live for a triple-double.
Los Angeles is without Anthony Davis and Avery Bradley, so expect Doncic to hoist a ton of threes and get the rim repeatedly.
Let’s rock with Doncic Over 31.5 points as the Lakers shouldn’t have any answers for him.
Pick: Luka Doncic Over 31.5 Points (1u)
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