Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how to bet Game 5 of the series between the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors.
Lakers at Warriors (-6): O/U 227.0
The Lakers stole Game 4 at home to go up 3-1 in the series and now back to Golden State means do or die for the Warriors.
This is the biggest desperation spot you’ll get and unlike teams in the first round that are down 3-1, there is hope in the second and third rounds for comebacks, or at least a Game 5 win.
The Warriors have been here before and being at home for Game 5 is crucial given Golden State’s road struggles all season. Golden State is 3-2 at home in the postseason with losses in Games 5 against Sacramento and Game 1 to Los Angeles. Two of the three home wins resulted in 17 and 27-point victories.
Out of all the remaining playoff teams, only the Knicks have a worst-rated offensive net rating than the Lakers on the road and the same goes for true shooting percentage.
The Lakers had a chance to close out the series in Memphis during Game 5 of the first round and Los Angeles lost 116-99 before winning Game 6. Los Angles trailed by 14 points at the end of the first quarter to Memphis and allowed 38 points in the first 12 minutes. I can see a similar result for the Warriors at home.
I played the Warriors 1Q spread at -1.5 (-130) and 1Q Team Total Over 29.5 (-125) with the full game spread at -6.
I expect a quick start in the first quarter and a strong third quarter at home to gain some separation in favor of Golden State. If I lose one of the first quarter bets, I will likely live bet the Warriors 1H spread or ML pending price.
Pick: Warriors 1Q -1.5 (1u), Warriors 1Q Team Total Over 29.5 (1u), Warriors -6 (1u)
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