The NBA’s best will be out in force this weekend in Salt Lake City for All-Star Weekend and the 72nd NBA All-Star Game. In the years since the Jazz last hosted (1993), the weekend has exploded with All-Star Saturday night perhaps even outshining Sunday’s game.
Of all the events Saturday night, the 3-point shooting contest has become the marquee event. Why? Most likely because its rules have remained largely unchanged since its inception in 1986 and the event has always featured stars from around the Association. Larry Bird won the first three years of the event. Other winners include Ray Allen (2001), Dirk Nowitzki (2006), Devin Booker (2018), and Stephen Curry (2015 and 2021).
This season’s roster of competitors from behind the arc offer substantial star power once again and PointsBet has set the market for bettors interested in sweating along with the players. Here is the field with their odds courtesy of PointsBet:
Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers (+375)
Buddy Hield, Indiana Pacers (+400)
Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics (+450)
Lauri Markkanen, Utah Jazz (+475)
Tyler Herro, Miami Heat (+575)
Anfernee Simons, Portland Trail Blazers (+700)
Kevin Huerter, Sacramento Kings (+700)
Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana Pacers (+800)
(Read More: Lillard and Tatum Headline 3-Point Contest)
Should Lillard be the Favorite?
PointsBet may list Lillard as the favorite, and he has proven to be clutch when the lights shine most bright. Over the last five seasons, Damian Lillard is the only contestant to average over four made 3-pointers per game. But is volume the best way to rank these shooters?
Lets dive into the numbers and see if they lead us to another of the marksmen in the field.
Second favorite on the board at PointsBet to the Blazers’ star is Buddy Hield (+400). He buries an average of 3.79 3s per game. No one in the field has shot the three-ball more accurately than Hield (41.85%) over the past five seasons. (Note: Hield won this contest in 2020.) Second most accurate sniper over the past half decade is Lauri Markkanen (39.89%). The Jazz forward (+475) is the 4th choice on the board.
Nobody in the field has made fewer threes per game over the past five seasons than Kevin Huerter of the Sacramento Kings (2.62/gm). That said, the one-time Maryland Terrapin is converting 37.51% of the time from behind the arc over the last five years which ranks 4th in the field. Huerter is listed at +700 on the odds board. Only Tyrese Haliburton (+800) is listed as less likely to hoist the trophy at the end of the night. By the way, the third-year pro Haliburton is connecting 37.51% of the time from 3-point range over the course of his career. That ranks him third in the field of eight.
Hield Sharpest of Shooters This Season
But we are a society of sports fans who suffer from recency bias. What are these eight doing this season? Ranking the eight according to their 3-point FG percentage this season, the order resets as follows (3-point contest odds in parentheses):
Buddy Hield, 42.3% (+400)
Lauri Markkanen, 41.3% (+475)
Tyrese Haliburton, 39.81% (+800)
Kevin Huerter, 39% (+700)
Anfernee Simons, 38.1% (+700)
Damian Lillard, 37.5% (+375)
Tyler Herro, 36.9% (+575)
Jayson Tatum, 35.3% (+450)
(Read More: NBA Power Rankings Post Trade Deadline)
After examining these stats and the odds at PointsBet who ranks as our favorite in the field? Hield has won this contest previously. That counts for something. However, the decision of who to sweat with needs to be a combination of past performance and the environment (Vivint Arena) in combination with the odds listed by PointsBet.
That methodology points us towards either Tyrese Haliburton or Lauri Markkanen as greater value plays than Hield. Why? Because the odds really do not reflect the true merits of the Pacers’ guard from deep and because the breakout star from Utah has also shot extremely well this season AND is shooting on his home court this weekend.
No matter how you break down the field, enjoy All-Star Saturday Night. It is part of a fun weekend in the NBA.
Enjoy it all and enjoy the sweat.
