Memphis Grizzlies vs Portland Trail Blazers betting preview
Injuries
Memphis: Jaren Jackson Jr. PF (Out), Justise Winslow SF (Out), Tyus Jones PG (Out)
Portland: Nassir Little SF (Questionable), Caleb Swanigan PF (Out), Trevor Ariza SF (Out), Rodney Hood SG (Out)
Find our latest NBA injury reports for every game.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 16-5 in Memphis Grizzlies’ last 21 games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers.
Against the spread pick
Portland’s heart rate is running at peak pace right now, winning its final three games by a combined seven points, including a thrilling one-point victory over Brooklyn in Thursday’s must-win seeding schedule finale.
If we look at those contests, the Blazers probably should have handled things a little easier – at least against Philadelphia (which limited its starters) and Brooklyn (with a no-name roster).
Poor third quarters are the culprit in those previous three outings, with Portland getting outscored by an average of nearly 10 points in those third frames while shooting a collective 37.5 percent from the floor coming out of the break.
And wouldn’t you know it? Memphis boasts the best third-quarter defense inside the bubble, limiting its last eight opponents to just 24.3 points on 38 percent shooting in those third frames.
Get ready for another nail-biter Blazers fans.
PREDICTION: Memphis +6 (-110)
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Over/Under pick
Portland squeezed out a 140-135 overtime victory against Memphis in the seeding schedule opener on July 31. That final score blew away the 224.5-point total for that game, even before they played the extra period.
While that contest was just a little over two weeks ago, it’s a lifetime in bubble days. The grueling pace of the seeding schedule has tested both teams, but Portland has had to dig in a lot harder to qualify for the play-in tournament.
The Blazers have played their starters an average of 35 minutes per game in the bubble – most among the 22 qualifying teams – and will still be catching their collective breath from Thursday’s wild finish against the Nets.
Those heavy legs are starting to show up in the Blazers’ shooting from beyond the arc: Portland is just 39 for 112 from 3-point range the past three games, hitting at under 35 percent. That’s a huge dip when compared to the team’s 45.4-percent clip from outside in the opening five games in Orlando.
And if you take Damian Lillard’s insane contributions out of those recent 3-point shooting stats (21 for 43 the past three games), the rest of the Blazers are 18 for 69 from distance – a putrid 26-percent success rate from 3-point land over the last three games.
PREDICTION: Under 232.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
Grizzlies center Jonas Valanciunas is coming off what is possibly the greatest game of his career, powering Memphis into the play-in with a 26-point, 19-rebound, 12-assist triple-double against the Bucks on Thursday.
And while we can discount that effort a bit, given that Milwaukee was mailing it in, Valanciunas is set up for success versus a Portland defense that’s struggled to stop centers inside the bubble. The Trail Blazers are allowing an average of more than 35 points per game to opposing bigs over their previous eight contests.
Valanciunas scored 16 points in only 14:22 of action due to foul trouble in the seeding opener against the Blazers but has worked himself in shape over the past two weeks, picking up only five total personal fouls in the past three games. In 13 career meetings with Portland, he averages 14.9 points – his third-highest scoring production versus any NBA team.
PREDICTION: Jonas Valanciunas Over 16.5 points (-104)
Grizzlies vs Trail Blazers Betting Card
- Memphis +6 (-110)
- Under 232.5 (-110)
- Jonas Valanciunas Over 16.5 points (-104)
