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This NBA Free Agency class is filled with guards, so if your team is looking for one, there is a chance they will find one. This 2021 class is not as star-studded as it could be, and even at the top with Kawhi Leonard available, it still does not seem top-heavy.
Leonard is reportedly listening to offers but intends on resigning with the Clippers. If Leonard does resign with the Clippers, then the +1600 price to win the NBA Finals will probably be lowered immediately.
Here is how the Eastern and Western Conference prices stack up on PointsBet with free agency underway, plus what players can shift odds to make worth buying in now or later.
East Conference NBA Finals Prices:
Nets (+240), Bucks (+800), 76ers (+1600), Heat (+2000), Hawks (+3000), Celtics (+4000), Knicks (+6000), Hornets, Pacers, Raptors (+10000), Bulls, Wizards (+150000), Cavs (+30000), Pistons, Magic (+50000)
The most notable prices here are the Bucks to repeat at 8-to-1 (+800) and the Raptors at 100-to-1 (+10000) odds to win the NBA Finals. If Kyle Lowry returns to Toronto, that price will skyrocket down to +2000 to +3000, cutting your profit tremendously.
So far, I am hearing that a favored player to replace Lowry is former Laker and Pelican Lonzo Ball, which would not shift the Raptors’ championship odds dramatically.
So far, Lowry is being pursued and favored to land with the Miami Heat (+2000), who have the fourth-best odds in the East. That would likely land Miami ahead of Philadelphia, so 20-to-1 (+2000) sounds like a good deal on basically the same Miami team that lost in the Finals two summers ago with an added third potential All-Star.
The Nets (+240) have Bruce Brown, Spencer Dinwiddie, Jeff Green and Blake Griffin on the free agency market with a chance to bring them all back. Dinwiddie is the most interesting as he tore his ACL. There is a chance he leaves elsewhere for a more prominent role or more money, but retaining him would be beneficial for the postseason.
Ben Simmons remains on the trade market with a price so outrageous that the 76ers (+1600) will likely miss out on signing any impactful free agents. It is hard to picture Philly being the third-best team in the Eastern Conference, so this is a price I will not even consider.
The Hawks, Knicks, Hornets and Celtics all remain years away from a chance at an NBA Finals. The Hawks came close in a weird postseason, but picking them to repeat that success is not a safe selection, even at the temping 30-to-1 price (+3000).
Boston brought back Al Horford in a deal for Kemba Walker and more, but if they can do a sign and trade for an All-Star caliber free agent, that 40-to-1 (+4000) seems appropriate in a top-heavy East. With Horford on the roster, I will pass.
The top only notable line movement in the East thus far has been the 76ers from +1600 to +1200, the Raptors from +8000 to +10000 and the Nets moving slightly from +250 to +240.
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West Conference NBA Finals Prices:
Lakers (+400), Warriors (+900), Jazz (+1400), Clippers (+1600), Suns (+1600), Mavericks (+2500), Nuggets (+3000), Blazers (+5000), Grizzlies, Pelicans (+8000), Spurs (+20000), Kings, Timberwolves (+25000), Rockets, Thunder (+50000)
Let me start by saying no team from the Blazers at 50-to-1 (+5000), and lower is worth betting on, before and likely after free agency.
The West will remain top six or seven heavy, with a few teams making their case throughout the season pending injuries. The favorites that I think are worth taking a look at are the Lakers (+400), Warriors (+900) and Mavericks (+2500).
Dallas is a front-runner for Kyle Lowry and currently battling Miami, New Orleans (+8000), New York and Toronto for his services. The Mavs at 25-to-1 is a solid grab if the Lowry news moves towards more official in favor of Dallas, but Miami is the No. 1, for now.
The Mavs are interested in Leonard, while a 1-2 punch of Luka Doncic and Leonard will seal this bet for me -- I have serious doubts Leonard leaves the Clippers. The +1600 could be worth something small now as L.A. will likely bring back all three of its free agents and since their price opened at +700 after the season.
The Clippers have Leonard, Nicolas Batum and Reggie Jackson on the free agent market.
The Hornets are paying for Batum’s contract over the next two seasons, so he will likely return at the least. The Clippers own Jackson’s early bird rights, so he may play for a lower amount than he wants in the 2021-22 season.
The Warriors are my favorites to take the West and contend for another title banner. Golden State reloaded in the NBA Draft with its two lottery picks, selecting Jonathan Kuminga (No. 7) and Moses Moody (No. 14), two players who could make an immediate impact off the bench, depending on what happens with Kelly Oubre‘s future.
With Klay Thompson and James Wiseman returning too, plus Stephen Curry having an entire offseason to train -- the Warriors are worth a bet at 9-to-1 odds. If Golden State can get something in return from a sign and trade for Oubre -- that would make me like this bet even more.
The Lakers lead the West with 4-to-1 odds (+400) for an NBA Championship. Their offseason is defined by acquiring Russell Westbrook for Kyle Kuzma, Montrezl Harrell, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and the No. 22 selection.
That trade may have forced Dennis Schroder out of town, especially since he has turned down two contracts from the Lakers, $84 million over four years being the highest. If Schroder is gone, the Lakers bench depth will concern me enough not to bet them, even at 4-to-1.
The sneak play of the entire West could be the Pelicans if they sign Lowry. That would give them four All-Star-caliber starters in Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Jonas Valanciunas and Lowry at 80-to-1 odds. Those odds would be cut in half to +4000 or lower at reopening.
Keep an eye on if Lowry to New Orleans, Dallas or Miami can happen. He will give those teams immediate chances at making a run.
A few free agents that are worth noting that can impact teams’ odds, DeMar DeRozan (unrestricted), John Collins (restricted), Mike Conley (unrestricted) and Chris Paul, but he is expected to resign with Phoenix.
The biggest odd movement among notable teams has been form the West. The Lakers from +650 to +400 after the Westbrook news and the Mavericks odds have moved from +3300 to +2500.
The Jazz dropped from +1100 to +1400, the Clippers drastically from +700 to +1600 and the Suns went from +900 to +1600. As of now, the Warriors at 9-to-1 are my favorite bet of the offseason.
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