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Clint Capela O/U 11.5 Rebounds vs. Mavericks
The Hawks and Mavericks open their seasons in Atlanta for one of the best matchups of the early season.
Last season, Clint Capela averaged 14.3 rebounds per game, which is a discount due to the season-opener. Capela also led the NBA with 23.2 rebound chances per game last season and an impressive 61.9% rebound chance.
Before the All-Star, Capela averaged 23.3 rebound chances, per NBA.com, so he is active and consistent throughout the season in terms of rebounding.
Capela is projected to lead the league in rebounds tonight with 13.0 boards, hitting the Over 11.5, per NBC’s player prop model.
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Capela’s matchups will be against Kristaps Porzingis, Dwight Powell and Maxi Kleber (maybe Willie Cauley-Stein). Luka Doncic will be a rebounding threat to Capela, but nothing he cannot handle.
Capela has had 10 or more rebounds versus Dallas in nine out of the last 12 meetings (75%) and 12-plus boards for five of the past nine (55.5%), per statmuse.
In the last five meetings with the Mavs, Capela has seven, 13, 23, 12 and 13 rebounds -- hitting the Over 11.5 rebounds four times.
Last season before the All-Star break, Dallas was one of the worst rebounding teams.
The Mavs allowed opponents to grab 45.4 rebounds per game (22nd) through the first 34 games. Last year, Capela led the league in boards (14.3) and posted 12.7 and 13.8 rebounds the seasons prior.
It is early in the season, and with teams adjusting to rotations and opponents, there is potential for Capela to clean the glass once again versus Dallas.
I got this at -105 odds and would play this out to -130 and half-unit at 12.5 rebounds.
Pick: Clint Capela Over 11.5 Rebounds (1u)
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