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NBA Player Props, ATS, November 3rd: Bulls vs 76ers, Vucevic Prop

Nikola Vucevic

Nikola Vucevic

Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

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Nikola Vucevic O/U 18.5 Points vs. 76ers

Nikola Vucevic has had a rough start to the season, falling behind the pecking order of guys like Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan.

The emergence of Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso have also taken away from Vuc’s touches and left him with a less than ideal statistic start to the season, if you’re an Over bettor, of course.

The Bulls’ center averages 15.1 points, 10.9 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game, combining for 30.3 PRA per game.

Our player prop model projects him at 15.0 points tonight, going well Under his 18.5 point line. It also shows value in the Under 33.5 PRA prop. I prefer the points for a few reasons.

He is 6-1 to the Under 18.5 points (85.7%).

Vuc

Vuc

The 76ers allow the second-fewest points per game to opposing centers (14.96). That would be thanks to the combination of Joel Embiid and Andre Drummond.

Philly ranks seventh in the NBA with 42.6 points per game allowed in the paint and the ninth-fewest points per game overall (103.6). Vucevic has scored 35% or less of his points each of his last four games in the paint, per NBA stats.

Most of Vucevic’s points have come assisted lately and on the season, so I like the Under 18.5 points. He will have to stretch the floor and his shot has not been falling lately -- 9-of-30 (30%) from the field in the last two games and 3-of-11 from deep (27.2%).

Vucevic recorded 11 points, 10 rebounds and 9 assists in the previous game at TD Garden versus Boston (I was there), and he did not look aggressive enough to score 19-20-plus points.

Opposing big men like Jonas Valanciunas, Jusuf Nurkic, Jerian Grant, Isaiah Stewart, Clint Capela, John Collins and Julius Randle all went Under this 18.5 point total versus Philadelphia.

The total on the game opened at 216.5 and was beat down to 214 as both teams rank atop the NBA in points per game allowed, three-point defense and come in at bottom of the NBA in rebounds per game.

This should be highly competitive game that leaves Vucevic grinding for each basket.

Back the Under 18.5 Points for 1 unit down to 17.5 points for 1 unit.

Pick: Nikola Vucevic Under 18.5 Points (1.5u)

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Bulls at 76ers (-2) O/U 214.0

This -2.5 line is fishy because the 76ers are 61-10 on the ML in the last three regular seasons (85.92%), but not the better team.

Philly is 42-25-3 (62.24%) ATS in those 71 games, but 8-8-1 in the past 17 (50%).

PHI ATS

PHI ATS

Philadelphia usually receives a spread of -5 or more at home, and going back to 2019 -- the 76ers have only been home favorites of -3 to -1 seven times, twice in 2020.

The 76ers will be without Tobias Harris (COVID health and safety protocols) and Danny Green (left hamstring tightness). Philly beat Portland 113-103 at home as +2 home dogs without Harris and Green to extend the winning streak to three consecutive.

However, Philly were the home dogs and that was the important part. The 76ers are 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine as home dogs. They were home dogs once in all of 2020 and seven times in 2021, so not very often.

Chicago is on a two-game winning streak and sits at 6-1 on the season, just ahead of Philadelphia (5-2). The Bulls are 3-0 ATS and on the ML away from Chicago this season, beating the Pistons, Raptors and Celtics.

Philadelphia beat Portland, Atlanta and Detroit at home this season, honestly catching the Hawks and Blazers at great times. Atlanta and Portland played their third game in four days when they faced Philly amid a three-game road trips. That was not a positive spot for either team, but it was for Philly.

Chicago has had a day off in between each of their last three games and will have two days off before getting Philadelphia at home on Saturday. The 76ers have a road trip to Detroit with the Pistons sandwiched in the middle.

The two teams play back-to-back home-and-home sets this week, so if we miss here, we go back with the Bulls spread on Saturday as the home team. However, PointsBet already tossed Chicago to -104 on the ML, so we can expect more and more money to come in on the Bulls to win outright and cover.

Philadelphia is also 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following consecutive ATS wins. They do not cover three straight very often. Take the Bulls with the points as they can win outright.

The books keep sleeping on Chicago, let’s keep riding this train until they wake up and start making Chicago road favorites.

Pick: Bulls +2 (1u)

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