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Goran Dragic O/U 22.5 PRA vs. Bucks
Goran Dragic again proved he is one of the most valuable veterans any team can ask for. The Dragon stepped up in Game 1, leading the Heat in scoring with 25 points.
An unfamiliar sight to success, as last year Dragic was arguably the key to their NBA Finals run. Dragic was a money-maker on the PRA line and books did not release his props for Game 1, because they knew he would be vastly undervalued.
Well, for Game 2, we have Dragon props. His points line opened at 15.5 and moved to 16.5. While I do like that, his PRA line is appealing.
NBC’s model projects Dragic to record 16.9 points, 3.8 assists and 3.2 rebounds (23.9 PRA) in 29 minutes. Dragic played 35 minutes in Game 1’s OT loss, totaling 25 points, two rebounds and one assist (28 PRA).
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In the 2019-20 postseason, Dragic hit the Over 22.5 PRA in 14-of-16 (87.5%) healthy playoff games. He hit the Over on the 23.5 PRA line in 11-of-16 (68.75%). So, the value of getting 22.5 is also critical.
Versus the Bucks, Dragic has recorded postseason PRA numbers of 38, 32, 23, 29, 23 and 28 in the last six. With Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo commanding much of the offensive attention, Dragic draws more opportunity for driving and scoring or passing.
I expect Dragic’s assist and rebound numbers to increase in Game 2. His two rebounds and one assist were his lowest in the last six postseason meetings versus the Bucks. [[ad:athena]]
Milwaukee allows the third-most points per game to point guards (25.62) on the season, which is positive for Dragic, who already scored 25.
Game 1 combined for 115 rebounds and 41 assists. Dragic will have a few more boards and assists even if there are fewer totals due to no OT or more/less made shots.
Over the last 10 games of the season, the Bucks were 13th in rebounds to opponents (44.3) and 15th in assists (25.2)—vulnerable numbers for Dragic to pick apart.
I like Dragic’s points at 16.5 or assists at 3.5 as a pivot play. I would play this at 23.5, but no higher for one unit.
Pick: Goran Dragic Over 22.5 PRA (1u)
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