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The NBA continues Sunday with an eight-game slate, with the first match tipping off at 1:00 pm ET.
Best Bet #1 - Jalen Green Over 16.5 Points (-105 Draftkings)
Jalen Green is starting to find his stride in the NBA. Since the All-Star break, the rookie has been averaging 19.6 points on 48% shooting.
Rookies head coach Stephen Silas has shown far more trust in the recently turned 20-year-old to lead the offense, as Green has seen an increase in usage rate and minutes played since the start of February.
Thread: I decided to look at how Jalen Green performs based on how many touches per game he got. I decided to view TS% because it would mitigate the effects of an increased offensive volume and show scoring efficiency. Here's what the data shows. Surprised?#rocketstrends #rockets pic.twitter.com/M4lGzcmGHS
— Apathetic (@ftank58) March 4, 2022
The Houston Rookies will be up against the Memphis Grizzlies tonight, which is a match that favors Green’s scoring totals. While the Grizzlies are one of the hottest teams in the NBA and currently second in the Western Conference standings, they have allowed shooting guards to average 28.76 in the previous seven games, most in the NBA.
Jalen Green has reached this prop value in just 18 of his 48 games this season (37.5%). However, he has scored 17 or more points in his last seven of his last ten, and given his increased role offensive and Memphis’ struggle to defend shooting guards, look for the G-League product to cash this prop.
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Best Bet #2 - Devonte’ Graham Over 1.5 Threes (-130 DraftKings)
While Devonte’ Graham is shooting slightly below his career average from three this season at 34.3%, volume is the main number you need to consider when assessing 3-point props, and their a few players that let it fly more than the 27-year-old.
Graham is 12th in the NBA for 3-pointer attempts per game, averaging 9.5 shots from behind the arc. Also, since CJ McCollum’s arrival, Graham’s shot selection is becoming even more three-focused. The Kansas product’s three-point frequency is 76.9% post-All-Star break, which is an 8.2% increase from before the break.
Defense turning into offense as DeVonte Graham hits the corner pocket 3 on the break 🙌pic.twitter.com/LDHQPSaCD6
— Pelicans Nation (@PelsNationCP) March 3, 2022
The New Orleans Pelicans will be up against the Denver Nuggets tonight, which is a matchup that favors players who enjoy shooting from long range. Post-All-Star break, the Nuggets are allowing opponents to attempt an average of 38.8 3-pointers per game, which is the fourth-most in the NBA over that span. Moreover, in the first matchup between these two teams this season, Graham took 12 3-pointers and made four.
Devonte’ Graham has reached this prop value in 46 of his 59 games this season (78%) and six of his last ten.
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