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Heading into March, there’s varying levels of urgency across each organization as teams begin to gear up for a playoff run or a push to improve lottery standings. Looking at the stakes for each game along with the rest situation for the teams involved can give you an edge in the NBA market and with nine games on tonight’s card, there’s plenty of opportunities for value. I have small plays on the Thunder (+9.5) and Jazz (-3.5) tonight, but there’s two other games I’m eyeing for my best bets of Friday’s NBA slate as I try to improve on my 219-164-7 record for +81.4 units on the season.
Washington Wizards vs. Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta’s frontcourt is definitely a concern in this matchup with Onyeka Okongwu and John Collins out. Okongwu has been a major part of Atlanta’s improvement since a slow start to the season, and opponents shoot 4.3% worse with Okongwu on the floor than when he’s off, a 94th percentile differential per Cleaning the Glass. John Collins will also be out which forces Danilo Gallinari onto the floor as the starter. Not only do the Hawks allow an additional 1.3 points per 100 possessions when Gallinari is on the court, they also grab 3.3% fewer offensive rebounds.
Many people counted out this Wizards team when Bradley Beal went down with an injury but Washington is still alive in the Eastern Conference play-in race with Kyle Kuzma stepping up in a high-usage role. In Kuzma’s rookie season, 35% of his made shots came unassisted but that mark dropped to 30.6 or lower each of the subsequent three seasons after LA signed LeBron James. This year, Kuzma is back to his rookie-year burden and even with a career-high 39% of his made field goals coming without an assist, he’s still putting up the best shooting efficiency of his career.
Kuzma has been even better since the calendar flipped to 2022 with averages of 22.5 points in January and 21 points in February, along with a 21-point outing to kick off March. Kuzma also improved on the boards, with a career-high 2.4 contested rebounds per game. I like his matchup with Gallinari and will be looking at Kuzma’s points or rebounds in the prop market.
Washington’s defense is built to stop opposing three-pointers so Atlanta’s shooters could struggle beyond the arc in this game. The Wizards hold opponents to lowest three-point frequency in the league while forcing the highest rate of mid-range attempts in the NBA. While Atlanta is solid at making shots in the mid-range due to Trae Young‘s ability to hit floaters, Okongwu and Collins are two of their most accurate shooters from that range.
Atlanta ranks just 27th in defensive efficiency while forcing the third-fewest turnovers in the league and allowing one of the five-highest opposing eFG% this year. The Hawks already struggle to defend opponents in transition with the 29th-ranked transition defense per Cleaning the Glass, and that could be even more difficult tonight. Atlanta went just 4-7 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back this season, including a 2-3 record both SU and ATS when listed as favorites without rest. Washington’s spread is my favorite bet of the night and I’d feel even better about backing the Wizards if Trae Young rests after being listed questionable for the game yesterday and playing 39 minutes in a tight win.
EDGE: Washington Wizards +4.5 (2 Units)
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Houston Rockets at Denver Nuggets
I like the Houston Rockets tonight for many of the same reasons I took Oklahoma City against the Nuggets as my pick for our winning Late Sweat parlay this Wednesday. Denver lost outright to Oklahoma City and while some might peg this as a bounce-back spot against another tanking team, the Nuggets may struggle to cover such a lofty spread. Denver went just 1-4 ATS as double-digit favorites this season, including a one point victory as -11.5 favorites for a November home game against Houston.
The Nuggets also own the league’s second-worst fourth-quarter net rating so there should be opportunities for the Rockets to get a backdoor cover if Houston trails late. I don’t expect Houston to follow OKC’s lead and get an outright win against the Nuggets, but this game should be closer than the +13.5 spread implies, especially with the recent performance of Jalen Green.
The second overall pick in this draft had his best full month of the season during February with a jump by nearly 15% in three-point percentage over his January performance. If Green can knock down his threes and Houston gets contributions from snipers like Garrison Mathews and Eric Gordon, this game should stay within +13.5 and I’d take the Rockets up to +11.5.
EDGE: Houston Rockets +13.5 (2 Units)
