Vaughn Dalzell shares how he’s attacking the Southwest Division market between the Dallas Mavericks and New Orleans Pelicans.
Southwest Division Winner: Dallas Mavericks (+185)
The Mavericks and Pelicans have already met all four times this year and split the season series, so we have to look for other ways to decipher who is the best bet in the Southwest Division with Dallas trailing New Orleans by 1.5 games.
Dallas awaits Josh Greene and Dante Exum’s return, but other than that, the Mavericks are getting healthier and are finding success with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving (12-11 record) on the court together.
Irving missed much of December and Doncic some of January, so once they are playing together for more than a week, the Mavericks should continue to improve. New Orleans will have to worry about Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum’s health who have missed a combined 22 games.
Both teams have a middle of the ranks strength of schedule remaining, but the final stretch of the season is where Dallas can gain major ground on New Orleans.
Over the last 13 games of the season, Dallas plays San Antonio, Utah (twice), Houston (twice), Detroit, and Charlotte as half of that stretch. The Mavericks have a lot of time before then to take control of the division, but that final stretch will be where Dallas pulls away or regains control.
In comparison, New Orleans plays Boston, Sacramento, Milwaukee, Phoenix (twice), Orlando, Golden State, and the Los Angeles Lakers over the last 11 games of the regular season, a much more difficult schedule.
Tim Hardaway Jr. is the favorite for Sixth Man of the Year (+150) and Doncic continues to climb the MVP ladder (+1000) alongside Irving. Either Doncic or Irving led the Mavericks in scoring over 14 of the past 15 games and the duo gives Dallas an edge over New Orleans short-term, in my opinion.
The best I could get on Dallas to win the Southwest Division at +185 on DraftKings over the +150 on BetMGM and +140 on FanDuel.
Pick: Dallas Mavericks to win the Southwest Division (1u)
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