Vaughn Dalzell breaks down the four NFL Divisional Round games, featuring a 1H Team Total and player props on Joe Burrow and Ezekiel Elliott.
Bengals at Bills (-5.5): O/U 49.0
Joe Burrow O/U 39.5 Pass Attempts
Joe Burrow O/U 25.5 Pass Completions
Joe Mixon O/U 48.5 Rushing Yards
Let’s run it back on our Best Bet from let’s weekend, but flip the script.
Joe Burrow finished with 32 pass attempts and we had the Under 36.5 versus the Ravens. I teased we would be on the Over versus Buffalo and here we are. Now, the Bengals are without three starting offensive lineman, so if you thought Joe Mixon would make a difference, I highly doubt it now.
Mixon continues to struggle on the ground and his player prop is 47.5 in this game, which is too high after 39 against the Ravens. However, the main play here is on the quarterback as Burrow has an opportunity to add to his young legacy.
With three offensive lineman out, the Bengals will rely on the short/quick pass game to get the ball out of Burrow’s hands ASAP. Burrow was sacked far less this season than either of the last two, but that could revert back to the norm on Sunday if he hangs onto the ball too long.
In the divisional round last season, Burrow threw for 348 passing yards on 37 pass attempts before tossing 38 passes on the Chiefs for 250 yards in the AFC Championship. This is that type of game where the ball should be in Burrow’s hands and the Bengals will lean on him to make plays with his arms and legs.
With all that being said, ride Burrow Over 25.5 completions (-132) on FanDuel and Over 39.5 attempts (-106) on FanDuel.
I faded Mixon Under 48.5 rushing yards (-114) on FanDuel. I would would go to -135 odds on all props and take Burrow up to 26.5 completions and 40.5 attempts, while playing Mixon down to 43.5 rushing yards.
Pick: Joe Burrow Over 39.5 Pass Attempts (1.5u), Joe Burrow Over 25.5 Completions (Risk 1.5u), Joe Mixon Under 47.5 Rushing Yards (1u)
Cowboys at 49ers (-4): O/U 46.0
Ezekiel Elliott O/U 34.5 Rushing Yards
Let’s roll with a prop in this game and focus on Dallas’ Ezekiel Elliott.
The Cowboys running back totaled 27 rushing yards on 13 carries versus the Buccaneers and that was a positive game script. The 49ers are the NFL’s best defense and this season, Zeke has ran for 42 or more yards in 13-straight games up until the past three.
Zeke has ran for 37, 10 and 27 rushing yards over the past three games (74 yards) on 40 carries (1.85 ypc) with a longest rush of nine yards. There is no reason to back Elliott’s rushing Over, especially when Tony Pollard posted 77 rushing yards on 15 carries against Tampa Bay.
Pollard had a higher snap share (56.7%) than Elliott last week (47.8%) and I expect that to continue versus the 49ers. I played Zeke Under 34.5 rushing yards on FanDuel at -114 odds. I would play this down to 32.5 yards.
Pick: Ezekiel Elliott Under 34.5 Rushing Yards (1u)
0.1 Lunch Money TD Scorer Parlay (+1847)
Travis Kelce anytime TD (-150)
Jalen Hurts anytime TD (-120)
Josh Allen anytime TD (+155)
Deebo Samuel anytime TD (+150)
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