Sometimes the sports betting industry dehumanizes me too much.
Take yesterday for example. Alabama head football coach Nick Saban tested positive for COVID-19. Most people react with worry about Saban’s health and the safety of his players. Meanwhile, I receive three e-mails and 10 text messages asking about what happens to the point spread.
This is the life I live.
Washington quarterback Alex Smith broke his tibia and fibula on Nov. 18, 2018 in a game against the Houston Texans. Many believed he would never play football again. Smith endured 17 surgeries, a life-threatening infection and the possibility of amputation during his two-year recovery.
Smith returned to the field this past Sunday in Football Team’s matchup against the Los Angeles Rams. He entered the game after a crunching hit to starting quarterback Kyle Allen. Smith finished the game under center and his return ignited a wave of positivity throughout the football universe.
Yesterday, PointsBet Sportsbook posted new odds for their NFL Comeback Player of the Year betting market. It’s an annual award that is decided by a nationwide panel of football media members. PointsBet’s trading room is dealing Smith as a heavy favorite to win at -400. That implies an 80 percent chance of probability.[[ad:athena]]
“We opened Smith at +1400, and moved to +1000 when Dwayne Haskins was benched,” PointsBet senior sports analyst Andrew Mannino told NBC Sports. “After getting in the game on Sunday, the trading room feels confident that Smith has Comeback Player of the Year wrapped up. Given the severity of the injury he suffered, the sentiment here is that he won the award the moment he took a single snap.”
One football writer told me it’s already a done deal for Smith to win. Peter King declared on NBC’s Pro Football Talk Live last week that he would vote for Smith once he took a snap. And here I am on a Thursday morning wondering if there’s “betting value” on other players with much higher odds.
A player who overcomes adversity and plays at a high level usually wins the award. And the latter has always been more important than the former. This year might be an exception to the rule.
Let me be perfectly clear that I have absolutely no issue at all with Smith winning the NFL Comeback Player of the Year. In fact, I really hope it happens because the story is sensational.
My bettor’s brain just cannot compute that a player with nine completions for 37 yards is a -400 favorite. Allen also returned to Football Team’s practice Wednesday, so that might be all we see from Smith this season. ESPN’s John Keim reported that Allen will start this Sunday.
Every contrarian bone in my body wants to bet on Ben Roethlisberger to win CPOY at +420 odds. A $100 bet would win $420 to collect $520. He has clearly been a much better player this season and it’s not like he hasn’t dealt with any adversity over the last 12 months.
Big Ben and the first place Steelers are off to a 4-and-0 start behind his 10 touchdown passes. And he missed 14 games last year after undergoing surgery on his throwing elbow. Talk about a great comeback while playing at an extremely high level. If Pittsburgh finishes 12-and-4 and Roethlisberger throws 40 touchdown passes, he wins the award 99 times out of 100.
It’s also fair to wonder about the recency bias in the market. Smith returned literally four days ago. If you don’t think that has an affect on the market, you’re not paying attention. If Smith doesn’t take another snap this season and Roethlisberger or Cam Newton keep winning and playing at a high level, odds are good that the market will change.
“Obviously we’ll adjust our lines in reaction to how the season goes,” Mannino explained. “Right now, it just seems like Smith is going to win.”
Will an incredible comeback story that may have concluded with two quarters of play in October hold more weight than a relatively less compelling story that’s tied to a full season of great football?
Only time will tell.
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