It was another winning week in the NFL with a 9-2 +7.67 unit finish! I say, let’s keep this money train rolling! Here are my early bets I like for Week 5 and as always, best of luck!
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & team props for every matchup this week on the NFL schedule!
Josh Allen O/U 0.5 Interceptions vs Patriots
Josh Allen threw his first interception of the season against the Saints, which was the most unlikely team to get the first, but nonetheless. Allen tossed six interceptions last year and had a four-game stretch with five interceptions.
In 2023, Allen threw 18 interceptions, so he has drastically cut down on his turnover issues in the last 20-plus games. Allen has tossed an interception in four consecutive meetings with the Patriots, but on Sunday Night Football, I’ll back Allen to be flawless in the turnover department at -152 odds.
I would parlay it with one of the following picks if you don’t want to pay the juice. Shop around because this varies from -150 to -175.
Pick: Josh Allen Under 0.5 Interceptions (Risk 2 units)
Jonathan Taylor O/U 16.5 Receiving Yards vs Raiders
“He can’t keep getting away with this!” — me after Jonathan Taylor caught his fifth pass and reached 20 yards against the Rams.
That catch pushed Taylor to 4-0 to the Over on the season to his receiving line and giving me a little more motivation to go Under 16.5 receiving yards (-114 odds) in Week 5 versus the Raiders.
Over the last two games, 13.5% of opponents’ receptions and 12.9% of targets have gone to the running back position against the Raiders. In that same span, the Colts RBs, and primarily Taylor, have accounted for 25% and 16% of receptions in the two games, plus 17.5% of the targets overall, so I like the Raiders to cut that number down and focus on slowing down Taylor.
Pick: Jonathan Taylor Under 16.5 Receiving Yards (2 units)
Titans at Cardinals (-7.5): O/U 41.5
I was hoping for a +10 when the spread was -8.5, but money is coming in on the Titans, so +7.5 is the last I’d play of the spread. The play I really like is the first quarter team total over 2.5 points for Tennessee.
The Titans scored in three of four first quarters and trailed by three points in two of them (7 and 14 in the other two). Arizona has not been a well-scripted first quarter team and still trying to find an identity in the run game with Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride as the only reliable threats in the pass game.
In a nutshell, I like the 0-4 Titans in the first quarter to go Over 2.5 Points at -135 odds out to -160. Cam Ward’s post game comments hopefully lit a fire in this team and let’s be honest, Kyler Murray should not be laying double digits against anyone in the NFL.
Pick: Titans 1Q Team Total Over 2.5 (1 unit)
Season Record: 29-12 (70.7%) +14.84 units | 28.6 ROI%
Week 4 Record: 9-2 (81.8%) +6.76 units | 44.26 ROI%
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