If you love prospects, then it doesn’t get any better than the Arizona Fall League. With six teams comprised of players from all 30 organizations, the AFL offers top prospects an opportunity to refine their skills long after the end of the minor league season.
For some players, the competition in the AFL is superior to anything they’ve previously experienced as a professional. For others, it’s a chance to prove to their organization that they’re ready to be challenged at the highest level.
Then, of course, there are the reclamation prospects—guys who were once highly touted but have since dropped off the major-league radar as a result of injuries, poor performance or stunted development. With these prospects, teams use the AFL to gauge whether or not they’re deserving of a spot on the 40-man roster, especially with the Rule V draft roughly two months away.
The 2013 AFL produced a diverse group of promising big leaguers this season, a group that includes Marcus Stroman, Jorge Soler, Tommy La Stella, Aaron Sanchez, Andrew Heaney, Ken Giles, C.J. Cron, Mookie Betts and Jonathan Schoop, just to name a few.
Believe it or not, this year’s AFL class is likely to churn out an even more impact talents, and we have you covered with an early in-depth look at eight of those players.
Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers (Glendale Desert Dogs)
Seager posted gaudy numbers this season at High-A Rancho Cucamonga, as the 20-year-old mastered the California League with a robust .352/.411/.633 batting line, 34 doubles, 18 home runs and 70 RBI in 80 games.
The hitter-friendly parks of the Cal tend to inflate hitters’ numbers, so it was great to see Seager continue his torrid production after moving up to Double-A Chattanooga. In his first taste of the Southern League, the 6’4”, 215-pound shortstop batted .345/.381/.534 with two home runs, 16 doubles and 27 RBI in 37 contests.
Overall, Seager amassed 75 extra-base hits and led all minor leaguers with 50 doubles. On top of that, he actually fared equally well against same-side pitchers as he did righties this season, posting a 1.065 OPS and 24 extra-base hits in 126 plate appearances against southpaws compared to a .984 OPS with 51 extra-base hits in 400 plate appearances. There are questions as to whether he will stick at shortstop or need to move to third base long term, which obviously could impact his fantasy value. However, he’s continually surpassed expectations at his natural position and should be able to hold his own for at least the first few years of his big league career.
Seager is one of best pure hitters in the minor leagues, with the potential to hit .280+ and 20 home runs annually while driving in plenty of runs in the middle of the Dodgers’ lineup. With only a month of Double-A baseball under his belt, Seager probably won’t debut before mid-to-late 2015, though that timeline could change depending on how Hanley Ramirez’s free agency plays out.
Kyle Zimmer, RHP, Kansas City Royals (Peoria Javelinas)
Injuries delayed Zimmer’s season debut until mid-August, but the right-hander was able to work his way up to Triple-A Omaha in early September and ultimately pitched out of bullpen in the Pacific Coast League playoffs.
Zimmer, the No. 5 overall pick in the 2012 draft, underwent surgery to remove bone chips in his right elbow after his 2012 professional debut, but appeared healthy throughout 2013 until August, when he was shelved with shoulder tightness. The same injury delayed his start to the 2014 season, while a subsequent lat injury suffered while rehabbing cost the 23-year-old right-hander a crucial year of development.
Zimmer’s fantasy impact, much like his real-life impact with the Royals, will come down to whether he can stay healthy for an extended period of time. The right-hander’s combination of stuff and command gives him four-category fantasy potential, with ERA and strikeouts representing his greatest strengths.
Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians (Peoria Javelinas)
Lindor returned to Double-A Akron to begin the season and held his own as one of the Eastern League’s youngest players, batting .278/.352/.389 with 22 extra-base hits and 25 steals in 88 games.
The Indians moved him up to Triple-A Columbus in July, suggesting that the 20-year-old defensive wizard might get his first taste of the major leagues in September. However, even after dealing Asdrubal Cabrera at the trade deadline, the organization decided not to call up Lindor for the season’s final month.
After swiping 25 bags in 32 attempts in 2013 (78.1%), Lindor took a step back on the basepaths this season with a 63.6 percent success rate (28-for-44) between the two levels.
Defense will always be Lindor’s greatest strength, but he should also offer enough with the bat to be a fantasy-relevant shortstop. Specifically, Lindor’s advanced approach should lead to a respectable batting average at the highest level, and it makes him even more valuable in OBP leagues. Beyond that, he’s also a safe bet to swipe upwards of 20 bags annually and could pile up runs if stationed in the top-third of the Indians’ lineup.
Josh Bell, 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates (Scottsdale Scorpions)
Bell opened eyes in 2013 during his first full minor league season—he appeared in only 15 games in 2012 before requiring season-ending knee surgery—as the switch-hitter posted an .806 OPS with 52 extra-base hits in 119 games for Low-A West Virginia.
Moved up to High-A Bradenton for his 2014 campaign, the 22-year-old Bell continued to make offensive strides in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, batting .335/.384/.502 with 33 extra-base hits (nine home runs) and an improved 43-25 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 84 games. His red-hot bat carried over to the Eastern League for the final month of the season, as he batted .287/.343/.309 over his final 24 games.
Bell has hit nearly three times as many doubles (64) as home runs (23) as a professional, and it’s only a matter of time until some of those two-baggers start clearing fences. In his prime, Bell could be good for 20-25 bombs annually. However, given his career strikeout and walk rates of 15.8% and 8.3%, respectively, and his knack for making hard contact, it wouldn’t be surprising if Bell also hit for average in the major leagues.
It’s also worth noting that Bell, a corner outfielder for his entire professional career, is playing first base in the AFL. The Pirates will have one of baseball’s best outfields for years to come, so it’s possible the organization is beginning to explore other ways to get his bat in the lineup.
Dalton Pompey, OF, Toronto Blue Jays (Mesa Solar Sox)
Pompey, a 21-year-old switch-hitter, emerged as one the game’s more intriguing power-speed prospects this year, excelling at four different levels and finishing with an impressive showing in the major leagues as a September call-up.
Pompey began his season with High-A Dunedin in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League before moving up to Double-A New Hampshire in late June. He played in only 31 Eastern League games before he received another promotion, this time moving up to Triple-A Buffalo.
After batting .358/.393/.453 with 15 runs scored and six stolen bases in 12 Triple-A games, Pompey was officially called up to the major leagues, where he posted a .738 OPS with four extra-base hits in 43 plate appearances.
He finished his second full professional season in the minors with a .313/.388/.462 batting line, nine home runs, nine triples, 20 doubles, 43 stolen bases and an 84-52 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 494 plate appearances (112 games) across three levels.
Pompey has a high-end combination of hit/speed potential while also playing a solid center field—all attributes he showcased during his time in the major leagues. Though he’s still young and relatively raw, the fact that Pompey’s secondary skills developed so rapidly this season bodes well for his future.
Mark Appel, RHP, Houston Astros (Salt River Rafters)
Appel struggled mightily in High-A Lancaster’s rotation to begin the season, even spending a month trying to straighten things out in extended spring training. After his July 24 start, Appel was sitting on a dismal 9.74 ERA and 1.92 WHIP through 44.1 innings, with opposing hitters raking against him at a .372 clip.
However, the Astros weren’t as concerned as the rest of the baseball world and promoted Appel to Double-A Corpus Christi for the final month of the regular season—a decision that potentially saved his campaign.
Appel finally showed the promise that made him the No. 1 overall pick in the 2013 draft (and the No. 8 pick in 2012) after moving up to Corpus Christi, as he pitched to a 3.69 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 38-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 39 innings.
Appel’s second-to-last outing easily was the best of his brief career, as he struck out 10 batters over eight scoreless innings, allowing just two hits and one walk. After his unexpectedly successful final month of the season in Double-A, Appel now has the potential to further resuscitate his prospect stock with a strong showing in the AFL.
He still has plenty to prove before it’s once again safe to considering him an impact fantasy pitching prospect; yet, even as a mid-rotation starter for the Astros, Appel could still carry value as a modest three- or four-category contributor.
Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (Salt River Rafters)
Bradley spent a majority of the season on the disabled list due to a mild flexor strain in his right elbow, but the 22-year-old was given a clean bill of health in late June and returned to Double-A Mobile, where he pitched to a 4.12 ERA with 46 strikeouts and 36 walks over 54.2 innings.
Bradley logged only 83 innings this season due to his time spent on the disabled list, so his September call-up snub wasn’t related to any concerns about his workload. Rather, Bradley’s performance this season made it clear his command, particularly his fastball command, requires further refinement. An inability to pitch off a located fastball made it difficult for Bradley to consistently execute his curveball against upper-level hitters and impeded the development of his changeup.
The injury and his subsequent command regression back in Double-A hurt Bradley’s fantasy stock this season, but he still has the makings of a four-category (W, K, ERA, WHIP) at maturity. He still has the ceiling of a No. 2 starter at maturity, and I don’t think anybody would be surprised if he eases some of the concerns regarded his season with an impressive AFL campaign.
D.J. Peterson, 3B/1B, Seattle Mariners (Surprise Saguaros)
Peterson was viewed as the most advanced college hitter—arguably the top overall hitter—in the 2013 draft class due to his potential for plus hit and power tools. He showcased both last summer in his professional debut, which, unfortunately, ended prematurely after an errant pitch fractured his jaw.
With the injury behind him entering 2014, Peterson make quick work of the California League with a .997 OPS, 18 home runs and 73 RBI in his first 65 games at High-A High Desert. The 22-year-old cooled off a bit following a midseason promotion to Double-A Jackson but still batted a very respectable .261/.335/.473 with 13 home runs, eight doubles and 38 RBI in his first taste of the Southern League.
Peterson may not remain at third base long term, but his bat is good enough to support a move to first base. Dude can flat-out rake. And after hitting 31 home runs and 31 doubles in his first full professional season, the 22-year-old will have everyone’s attention entering 2015—including the Mariners, an organization that doesn’t shy away from challenging its top prospects in the major leagues.
