Off to a 2-11 start and with three very important players (Josh Donaldson, J.A. Happ and Aaron Sanchez) on the disabled list, the Blue Jays are already looking like future sellers on the trade market. Things aren’t hopeless; Sanchez’s problem is only a blister, so he should be back before the end of the month, and no structural damage was found in Happ’s elbow. Assuming they get over the injury bug, the Jays should still be a fairly formidable for in the AL East.
Still, this is a Toronto team with holes under the best of circumstances. Going with a patchwork first base-left field situation of Steve Pearce, Justin Smoak and Ezequiel Carrera was a big mistake, especially given the abundance of affordable alternatives over the winter. Angel Pagan still makes a lot of sense here; it’s no lock that he’d be a solid starting left fielder, but he was one last year. Giving him a shot there and going with a strict Smoak-Pearce platoon at first would help. Pearce isn’t as bad as he’s looked thus far (he’s batting .162 with no extra-base hits), but his primary strength is as a starter against lefties.
The Jays thought they’d contend this year based on the strength of five above average starting pitchers and a lineup without any real sinkholes that’s led by two All-Stars. The healthy starting pitchers are still looking pretty good, but there’s little depth behind them and the lineup just isn’t very imposing with Jose Bautista scuffling. Bautista is 36, Russell Martin in 34 and Troy Tulowitzki is 32. No one there is a sure thing to rebound. Bautista will start hitting homers again, but he’s likely to finish with closer to 25 than 35. Martin overcame a very slow start last year, but still ended up with a big spike in his strikeout rate and his issues there have gotten even more severe in the early going this season. Tulo is far more solid than spectacular these days.
I don’t think the Jays are going to remain bad, but they strike me as more average than good and they’ll probably need to play .600 ball from here on out to claim a postseason spot. That seems quite unlikely. It could well be that Bautista, Marco Estrada and Francisco Liriano will finish this season playing for other teams.
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American League notes
- Donaldson is out 2-4 weeks with his calf injury. With the Jays searching for offense, Chris Coghlan has started at third the last two times the team has faced right-handers. I’m not sure that makes sense, given Darwin Barney’s considerable defensive advantage, but it gives Coghlan some AL-only value. If Coghlan hits, he’ll enter the mix in left field and at first base once Donaldson returns.
- Marcus Semien’s wrist surgery will cost the A’s arguably their best position player for at least the next two months. The club resisted the temptation to promote top prospect Franklin Barreto in his place and will try to get by with Adam Rosales and Chad Pinder for now. Barreto, though, is hitting .310/.375/.524 through 11 games in Triple-A Sacramento, and if he keeps that up, we could see him in early May. Odds are that he wouldn’t have mixed-league value initially; while he’s been a frequent basestealer in the minors, he hasn’t been a particularly good one, finishing 30-for-47 last year. He’s 0-for-1 in that department this season. He’d probably be limited to AL-only value for this year.
- Matt Bush’s shoulder issue turned out to be nothing major, so he’s expected to close while Sam Dyson spends a couple of weeks rehabbing a “hand contusion.” There’s plenty of time for Dyson to get his mojo back, and I imagine the Rangers would prefer to return him to the closer’s role rather than push Bush’s future arbitration salaries into the stratosphere. Still, that all hinges on Dyson coming back strong next month. Bush should be owned everywhere in the meantime.
- Orioles pitchers already have enough working against them in Camden Yards and the AL East, but the defense has been a serious problem in the early going, too. Surrounding an average-at-best center fielder in Adam Jones with the likes of Seth Smith, Hyun-Soo Kim, Mark Trumbo and Trey Mancini didn’t figure to work out very well, but what’s really surprising is that the infield has been just as bad as the outfield. I think that’s something of a fluke, but it gives me one more reason to bet against Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy this year.
- The Orioles seem optimistic that Zach Britton’s absence due to a forearm strain won’t be a long one. They’re not naming a closer in his place, but Brad Brach has to be the clear favorite for saves, given Darren O’Day’s struggles.
- Cleveland demoting Tyler Naquin in order to play Lonnie Chisenhall in center field was one move I did not see coming. I wasn’t very high on Naquin -- he was my No. 71 OF going into the season -- but he deserved a chance to show his fine rookie performance (.296/.372/.514 in 321 AB) wasn’t a fluke. What he got was 18 plate appearances. Chisenhall wasn’t even a very good defensive right fielder, and it’s not like the club was in desperate need to free up at-bats for Abraham Almonte and Austin Jackson. Sending Naquin down would have made sense if he were hitting .210 on May 15. Demoting him on April 13, particularly when they had the flexibility to send down Almonte… that I didn’t get.
- Whit Merrifield was one of my deep mixed-league sleepers early this spring, as I was hoping the Royals would play him regularly at second base and bat him leadoff. Instead, they chose to send him down and go with Raul Mondesi at second, a decision that they’re probably regretting now. Mondesi is looking as overmatched as he did last year, and Merrifield, playing right field, homered and reached four times in his season debut Tuesday. Unless Mondesi gets hot, the Royals should send him down and move Merrifield to second when Jorge Soler comes off the DL next week. Merrifield isn’t an immediate mixed-league pickup or anything, but he has enough pop and speed to help in deeper leagues.
List #1: 10 slow starters worth acquiring in trade
1. Anthony Rendon (3B Nationals)
2. Jose Quintana (SP White Sox)
3. Jonathan Villar (2B-SS Brewers)
4. Masahiro Tanaka (SP Yankees)
5. Edwin Encarnacion (1B Indians)
6. Kyle Seager (3B Mariners)
7. Devon Travis (2B Blue Jays)
8. Tim Anderson (SS White Sox)
9. Byron Buxton (OF Twins)
10. Jose Abreu (1B White Sox)
We went through this last year with Rendon; he hit .229 with two homers and six RBI through May 17 and then .285 with 18 homers and 79 RBI over the final three-quarters of the season. He’s too talented to struggle for long.
Encarnacion has typically been a slow starter -- his career OPS in April is 100 points lower than his rest-of-season mark -- so it’s not shocking that he’s hitting just .221 with two homers to date. What is concerning is that he’s striking out at more than twice his career rate. His K rate took a jump last year, but it was still plenty good for a power hitter. It’s still early enough that I don’t think panic is warranted, but I would insist on something of a discount if I were trading for him. His exit velocity is fine, so he’s hitting the ball pretty hard when he’s making contract.
I’m a little nervous about including the White Sox in this list, mostly because the team is only going to get worse as time goes on. I don’t worry about Quintana; his velocity is fine and his value will jump once he’s finally traded. I’m not as high on Anderson and Abreu as I was on Opening Day, but I still think they’ll be mixed-league assets when all is said and done.
I didn’t think Nicholas Castellanos qualified for the “slow start” list, but he’s now hitting .204 after all of the hype he was getting at the end of the spring and the first week of the season. He’s still a buy for me, as he’s demonstrated top-notch exit velocity to date.
National League notes
- Starling Marte’s 80-game steroid suspension was a stunner. We’re talking about someone who is the same player now as when he entered the league five years ago (his power has actually trended downwards a bit) and who has no real financial incentive to cheat (he’s signed through 2019 with $11.5 million and $12.5 million options for 2020 and 2021 that would surely be exercised if he were just a solid regular). So many people think of steroid usage as being all about the money, but the timing of so many steroid suspensions suggest that it isn’t really the case.
Unfortunately for the Pirates, top prospect Austin Meadows doesn’t seem ready to fill Marte’s shoes. He’s off to a .162/.220/.270 start in 10 games in Triple-A this year, and he hit a modest .214/.297/.460 in 37 games after moving up to Triple-A last season. I’d expect to see him in June if he starts to swing the bat better. I’m not optimistic that he’d be a mixed-league guy initially; that’ll probably have to wait until 2018. He is the team’s best defensive option in center with Marte out, which should help his case for a callup once his numbers come up.
For now, the Pirates figure to go with Adam Frazier and Josh Bell in right field. Josh Harrison, who was in danger of losing time to Frazier against right-handers, will resume playing second base pretty regularly. The newly recalled Jose Osuna can take over some of Bell’s time at first base. Osuna was a spring sensation for Pittsburgh, hitting .407 with five homers and 19 RBI in 54 at-bats. He’s not the power hitter that the line suggests, but he makes a fair amount of contract and he’s hit a ton of doubles in the minors. He should have NL-only value. Frazier is worthy of consideration in deeper mixed leagues, but while he should continue hitting for a nice average, his lack of home run power and modest stolen base ability make him a low-ceiling guy.
Marte’s absence will take minor tolls on the fantasy values of Andrew McCutchen and Gregory Polanco, though it could help McCutchen’s in the long run; the Pirates are a worse team now, which increases the chances that McCutchen will be traded in July, and a trade would most likely put McCutchen in a better ballpark for right-handed hitters and possibly surround him with more offensive talent.
- The Nationals might bail on Blake Treinen as closer after a shaky outing Tuesday left him with a 7.11 ERA. It seems awfully premature to be making any judgments about Treinen -- his one blown save came because he allowed an inherited runner to score -- but it’s not like Baker was all that sold on him in the first place. Assuming the switch is made, Shawn Kelley will probably step in, even though he still has the same durability issues that cause Baker to shy away from him this spring; the Nats won’t want him working back-to-back particularly often and certainly never three straight days. Koda Glover could also be a factor, but it seems telling that Baker turned to Kelley to finish Tuesday’s game even though Glover, too, was available.
- Instead of coming off the disabled list on Wednesday, Trea Turner (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment that figures to last a couple of days. It’ll be interesting to see if the Nationals’ success with Adam Eaton at the top of the order has changed Baker’s thinking on Turner as a leadoff man. It always made a lot of sense to bat Turner second behind Eaton, breaking up a string of three lefties with Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy, but Baker was so set on Turner as a leadoff man that he was planning on hitting Eaton sixth or seventh in order to keep those lefties separate. Batting second wouldn’t seem to hurt Turner’s fantasy value at all, and it’d certainly be good for Eaton if he got to keep hitting first.
- I’m not sure how much I buy in, but Cubs manager Joe Maddon hinted that the velocity declines among his starting pitchers are by design, partly in the hopes of keeping them strong at the end of the year. While Jake Arrieta being down 2-3 mph with his pitches in the early going has gotten most of the attention, I’ve been more alarmed about Kyle Hendricks’ issues; he’s down a similar amount from a much lower base, leaving him with an 85-mph fastball at the moment. Movement and command count for a great deal, but throwing 85 mph just doesn’t leave one for much margin for error against major league hitters. If what Maddon says is true, the idea is that the lost velocity should steadily come back over time. We’ll see if that materializes. There hasn’t been anything at all to suggest either Arrieta or Hendricks is dealing with an arm problem or injury of any sort.
- While I never had any expectations that it would happen, I felt benching Jay Bruce to play Michael Conforto regularly would be a significant upgrade for the Mets. So far, though, Curtis Granderson has been the outfield’s weak link by a rather hefty margin. I still believe the ideal option for the Mets is to trade Bruce, something that should be easier to do after his hot start. Try as he might, even Noah Syndergaard can’t strike out enough batters to make a Yoenis Cespedes-Conforto-Bruce outfield palatable. For that reason, Granderson will likely continue to start against most righties. Conforto would be at least a top-40 and probably a top-30 fantasy outfielder if given the chance to play regularly, making him a great use of a bench spot in mixed leagues.
- The Phillies could give Roman Quinn a look after placing Howie Kendrick on the DL with an abdominal strain Tuesday, but it probably wouldn’t be much of one. Both Daniel Nava (5-for-10, 2 HR, 4 BB) and Aaron Altherr (.891 OPS in 12 AB) have done well in their limited roles and Kendrick seems probably to return within a couple of weeks, so even if Quinn gets the call, it wouldn’t be for long. I’d like to see what Altherr can do; judging by how he looked this spring, he might be an upgrade over Michael Saunders in right field anyway.
- Clay Buchholz never seemed right from day one this spring, and now he’s done for the season with a torn flexor tendon. Stepping into his place Tuesday was Zach Eflin, but I’m not optimistic that he’ll be more than a stopgap. Eflin is good at spotting his pitches, but he just doesn’t have enough on them to make it as a quality starting pitcher. Ideally, either Jake Thompson or Mark Appel would step up and take over that spot at some point within the next two months. Unfortunately, Thompson has given up 15 runs over 4 2/3 innings in his first two starts at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Appel hasn’t been a lot better, with an 8.22 ERA and a 4/6 K/BB ratio in 7 2/3 innings. Right now, Nick Pivetta looks like the next guy up. The former Nationals prospect (he came over for Jonathan Papelbon in 2015), is a groundball pitcher with a 0.69 ERA and a 13/0 K/BB ratio in 13 innings.
- Maybe nothing this season has baffled me more than Cardinals manager Mike Matheny favoring Matt Adams over Jose Martinez in left field while simultaneously favoring Martinez over Adams at first base. Unfortunately for the rest of the NL Central, it sounds like we’ve seen the last of Adams in left for now.
List #2: 10 slow starters I’m not betting on
1. Jose Bautista (OF Blue Jays)
2. Trevor Story (SS Rockies)
3. Jose Reyes (SS-3B Mets)
4. Mike Napoli (1B Rangers)
5. Hisashi Iwakuma (SP Mariners)
6. Rajai Davis (OF Athletics)
7. Evan Longoria (3B Rays)
8. Victor Martinez (DH Tigers)
9. Carlos Beltran (OF Astros)
10. Adam Wainwright (SP Cardinals)
I’m not writing people off after 2 1/2 weeks; most of these were players I was already down on prior to Opening Day. If there are exceptions, it’s Davis and Wainwright. I thought Davis would have significant early-season value as Oakland’s leadoff man, but he’s just 1-for-3 stealing bases and he isn’t even leading off regularly. Davis always figured to be a well below average regular for the A’s, and it’s already time to start wondering how long they’ll live with him in center field. Fortunately for Davis and his fantasy owners, they’re lacking in quality alternatives. Jaff Decker doesn’t possess the range to play center regularly. Jake Smolinski is out for months after shoulder surgery. It was suspected that Barreto would see some time in center in Triple-A, but that hasn’t come to fruition and probably won’t now with Semien hurt. Alejandro De Aza would have been a better option against righties, but he wasn’t kept out of spring training. Davis might yet have some mixed-league value, but probably not into the second half of the year.
Wainwright’s velocity was just fine during his disappointing 2016, and I thought his control would be better this year, which, combined with an improved Cardinals defense, would make Wainwright viable in mixed leagues again. However, Wainwright’s command is worse than ever and the players behind him have been awful; the Cardinals defense ranks 28th at turning balls in play into outs and 29th when it comes to grounders. It doesn’t look like Wainwright will be worth using in mixed leagues anytime soon.
