Welcome back to the Strike Zone. I’m starting things off this year with a sleepers column focusing only on players going outside of the top 300 in NFBC leagues. I’ll be posting my usual underrated/favorite players column later this month.
Listed next to each player is my ranking from this year’s draft guide, along with the player’s ADP over the last month in NFBC leagues. One thing to note: there is some disparity here because my rankings are for one-catcher leagues and the NFBC uses a two-catcher format. If the NFBC were a one-catcher league, the players listed below would probably have higher ADPs by 10-20 spots, closing the rankings gap some.
Alex Kirilloff (1B-OF Twins) - My ranking: 206 - NFBC ADP ranking: 322
Two years of wrist issues have turned Kirilloff into something of a question mark, but the hope is that those problems are in the past now after a second surgery and he’s continued to post quality exit velocity numbers when he’s been able to play. He hit an exceptional .359/.465/.641 in 35 games in Triple-A last season. The Twins have left first base wide open for him in the wake of the Luis Arraez deal, so opportunity isn’t a concern. I have him at .270 with 20 homers, and I think he could go higher in the power department.
Stone Garrett (OF Nationals) - My ranking: 280 - NFBC ADP ranking: 558
I’d rather the Nationals had not signed Corey Dickerson in left field, but on the plus side, it’s just Corey Dickerson. Garrett hit .276/.309/.539 in 27 games for Arizona in his major league debut last season, and he came in at .275/.332/.568 with 28 homers and 15 steals in 103 games for the Diamondbacks’ Triple-A club. OBP figures to be a big issue for him in the majors, and I don’t think he’s a long-term starter. However, the power-speed combination would make him very interesting if he push his way into regular duty for the Nationals, and it’s not like Dickerson is the only member of the team’s starting outfield primed to be overtaken.
Jonathan Aranda (2B Rays) - My ranking: 261 - NFBC ADP ranking: 484
The projection systems aren’t buying into Aranda’s big minor league numbers the last two years (.325/.410/.540 in Double-A in 2021, .318/.394/.521 in Triple-A in 2022), with most giving him a sub-.700 OPS. It surely didn’t help that he came in at just .192/.276/.321 in 87 MLB plate appearances in his major league debut. Still, his exit velocity numbers were pretty good, most notably his 45.5% hard-hit rate. The Rays should have plenty of room for him at first base and/or DH if he produces this year, and he’s carrying second base eligibility from last year. I’m optimistic about him being useful in deeper leagues, though with little speed and only modest HR potential, he lacks a high ceiling.
Jose Siri (OF Rays) - My ranking: 207 - NFBC ADP ranking: 363
Siri came in at a respectable .241/.292/.367 with four homers and eight steals in 178 PA for the Rays after being acquired from the Astros at the deadline last year. He’s always going to be extremely strikeout prone, but his elite defense should keep him in the Rays’ lineup regularly and he offers 15-homer and 30-steal potential from the bottom of the order. He’s just not likely to be of all that much help in runs and RBI in the process.
Franmil Reyes (DH Royals) - My ranking: 254 - NFBC ADP ranking: 521
Late-winter free agents always get hit hard in ADP, and it’s easy to understand why fantasy leaguers aren’t eager to take a chance on Reyes as a DH-only guy who was cut by two teams last year. He was truly lost at the plate while hitting .221/.273/.365 for the Guardians and Cubs in 2022. On the other hand, he came in at .260/.325/.503 with 92 homers in 411 games the previous four seasons. I doubt he’ll be an everyday guy for the Royals initially, but he’ll probably become one of the team’s best bats in time.
J.D. Davis (3B Giants) - My ranking: 281 - NFBC ADP ranking: 408
Among players with 300 plate appearances last year, Davis had the third highest hard-hit rate, behind only Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez, and ninth highest barrel rate. He struggled before getting sent from the Mets to the Giants, but he came in at .263/.361/.496 in 49 games afterwards. The issues here are that Davis has no real defensive value and he’s a right-handed hitter on a team that loves to platoon, so he’ll need to keep crushing the ball in order to play regularly. He’s capable, though.
Mitch Garver (DH Rangers) - My ranking: 312 - NFBC ADP ranking: 383
That Garver currently lacks catcher eligibility after missing much of last season is really holding down his NFBC ADP. Still, there’s a good chance he’ll get it back in April while serving as Jonah Heim‘s backup and at least a part-time DH. Maybe he’ll get off to a slow start and the playing time won’t materialize, but it’s also pretty easy to imagine him hitting 15-20 homers and spending the final five months as a top-10 fantasy catcher.
Josh Donaldson (3B Yankees) - My ranking: 293 - NFBC ADP ranking: 423
Donaldson’s career is clearly winding down, but let’s not completely write him off here. He posted elite exit velocity numbers two years ago, and while pretty much everything went in the wrong direction last season, a dead cat bounce is quite possible. After all, we’re talking about a guy who has played at a Hall of Fame level these last 10 years. I’m guessing he’ll be good for 20-25 homers.
Nick Senzel (OF Reds) - My ranking: 278 - NFBC ADP ranking: 515
Joey Votto (1B Reds) - My ranking: 288 - NFBC ADP ranking: 434
Spencer Steer (3B Reds) - My ranking: 316 - NFBC ADP ranking: 400
Let’s package the Reds together here. Yes, my fondness for Senzel is getting laughable at this point, but he’s essentially free this year. And Great American Ball Park is the league’s best ballpark for homers. One could even say it’s a better situation for hitters than Colorado, since there’s no elevation-fueled road hangover attached it. It’s safe to say than Senzel will never emerge as a star. I have no idea what Votto has left at age 39 and coming off shoulder surgery. Steer is more likely to be solid than spectacular, given the questions about his power. However, at these prices, I’ll take all of the shares.
Leody Taveras (OF Rangers) - My ranking: 257 - NFBC ADP ranking: 375
No one seems to be betting on continued improvement from Taveras, even though he went from hitting .188/.249/.321 in 319 PA from 2020-21 to .261/.309/.366 in 341 PA last season. His Statcast page is mostly unattractive, and his contact numbers make his lower strikeout rate look like a mirage. Still, there’s hope. Taveras is just 24 years old, and it’s hardly his fault he was rushed to the majors. He’s a strong defensive center fielder, and he has excellent speed. If he stays in the lineup, he’s a great bet for 15-20 steals and 10-15 homers, and I still think there’s some growth potential in the OBP department. Also, that he’s out of options helps with his margin for error in case he gets off to a slow start.
Craig Kimbrel (RP Phillies) - My ranking: 178 - NFBC ADP ranking: 296
(Yeah, I know I said outside the top 300. Kimbrel is No. 296, but I’m almost positive he was outside the top 300 the first time I looked.)
Even since signing Kimbrel for $10 million, the Phillies have made a big deal about how he’ll have to get used to not being a traditional closer. My response to that: why in the world would you give Kimbrel $10 million unless you wanted him to close? It’s what he does. Ask the last team that tried it how not treating him as a closer worked out. Now, I don’t know that Kimbrel will be a particularly good closer in 2023, but it’s not like he’s going to help in the seventh and eighth innings if he’s not good enough to close. Anyway, I’m taking a chance at this price.
David Peterson (SP Mets) - My ranking: 313 - NFBC ADP ranking: 417
I’m excited about the progress Peterson made with his slider last year, and I’d have him as a top-60 SP if he were assured a rotation spot. As is, not only is he on the outside looking in, but he has another very intriguing option in Tyler Megill competing with him for any openings on the Mets staff that do arise.
Daniel Hudson (RP Dodgers) - My ranking: 204 - NFBC ADP ranking: 311
Evan Phillips deserves a crack at the closer’s role after amassing a 1.14 ERA last season, but I’m guessing that Hudson will get the nod for the Dodgers initially, provided that he shows he’s healthy this spring as he returns from a torn ACL. Hudson looked very good before getting hurt last season, posting a 2.22 ERA and a 30/5 K/BB ratio in 24 1/3 innings. Either he or Phillips could wind up as a top-10 closer this year.
Edward Olivares (OF Royals) - My ranking: 242 - NFBC ADP ranking: 353
Kyle Isbel (OF Royals) - My ranking: 325 - NFBC ADP ranking: 556
Drew Waters (OF Royals) - My ranking: 381 - NFBC ADP ranking: 451
Nate Eaton (OF Royals) - My ranking: 400 - NFBC ADP ranking: 597
All of these guys should be moving up in ADP after the Royals’ trades of Michael A. Taylor and Adalberto Mondesi. As is, the Royals are looking at an outfield of Isbel in left, Waters in center and Olivares in right. I’m not very excited about Waters -- his ADP might well eclipse my ranking in the end -- but Olivares could offer limited value in traditional mixed leagues and Isbel makes sense in deeper formats. Isbel was disappointing in hitting just .211/.264/.340 in 278 PA last year, but that came with a 45% hard-hit rate. He also has 15-steal potential. Eaton should be a reserve, but he was 11-for-12 stealing bases in 44 games last season. Plus, he’s adequate at third base, which could allow him to unseat Hunter Dozier eventually. He’s limited in the power department, but he has a nice approach at the plate; he’s a fascinating deep sleeper.
Avisail Garcia (OF Marlins) - My ranking: 234 - NFBC ADP ranking: 336
Obviously, Garcia was one of the league’s worst players in the first year of a hideous four-year, $53 million contact. On the plus side, said contract ensures that he’ll get every opportunity to bounce back. Garcia shouldn’t be completely over the hill at age 31. He hit .262 with 29 homers in 2021, and while he traded down in going from Milwaukee to Miami as a free agent, loadDepot park isn’t as much as a negative as it used to be. He’ll likely rebound to being adequate in all five categories.
Seth Lugo (SP Padres) - My ranking: 309 - NFBC ADP ranking: 476
If I thought Lugo could hold up for six months as a starter, I’d have him quite a bit higher. Still, while that’s probably not happening, he’s in pretty much the perfect situation as a member of a likely six-man rotation in San Diego. Lugo’s career numbers as a starter aren’t overly exciting (15-10, 4.35 ERA, 174/53 K/BB in 195 IP), but most of those came 5-7 years ago. His velocity is good, and he’s always been a four-pitch guy, even as a reliever. I like his chances of being quite helpful early on.
Josh Lowe (OF Rays) - My ranking: 364 - NFBC ADP ranking: 517
The hype for Lowe has completely vanished, even though he hit .315/.402/.556 with 25 steals in 27 attempts in Triple-A last season. He was far less impressive in the majors, coming in at .221/.284/.343 in 198 PA, and it’s discouraging that his strikeout issues have gotten worse. Still, I think there’s better odds here than on most lottery tickets.
Trevor May (RP Athletics) - My ranking: 257 - NFBC ADP ranking: 339
Domingo Acevedo (RP Athletics) - My ranking: 391 - NFBC ADP ranking: 532
These two should be moving up a bit after the A’s traded A.J. Puk to the Marlins. I had Puk ranked second among A’s relievers (I wasn’t buying into the rotation talk). Now Acevedo slots in there ahead of Dany Jiménez and Zach Jackson.
Trevor Story (2B Red Sox) - My ranking: 252 - NFBC ADP ranking: 469
There’s a chance Story won’t contribute this season after UCL surgery, but it’s also possible that he’ll be a top-50 player after the All-Star break. Even if his recovery doesn’t go quite as well as hoped, the Red Sox could always bring him back as a DH in the second half. If Bryce Harper‘s ADP is No. 175, it seems crazy to me that Story is here at No. 469.
Nolan Jones (OF Rockies) - My ranking: 315 - NFBC ADP ranking: 466
Elehuris Montero (3B Rockies) - My ranking: 341 - NFBC ADP ranking: 550
Sean Bouchard (OF Rockies) - My ranking: 411 - NFBC ADP ranking: 625
What I’d really like is for the Rockies to just release Charlie Blackmon and Randal Grichuk and give these guys a chance. That’s not going to happen, but Grichuk’s hernia surgery does increase the odds that at least one of these youngsters will start on Opening Day. One issue here is that I have all three projected very similarly for this year. Jones and Montero are more interesting for the long haul, but the 26-year-old Bouchard might be the best player right now. Working in Montero’s favor is that he’s out of options, ensuring his place on the team. Unfortunately, he’s the one of the three that’s not an option in the outfield. Ideally, someone from the trio will separate himself from the others this spring.
A.J. Minter (RP Braves) - My ranking: 265 - NFBC ADP ranking: 462
Yeah, no one wants to draft a true setup man. Minter, though, is an elite reliever, and he’d likely rate as a top closer if anything happens to Raisel Iglesias.
Eric Hosmer (1B Cubs) - My ranking: 300 - NFBC ADP ranking: 477
Yeah, no one wants to draft an Eric Hosmer. Still, he should be a little bargain in deeper leagues with his ability to hit for a solid average and put up decent numbers elsewhere. The Cubs promised him playing time in signing him for the minimum, and hitting fifth behind the likes of Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki will help with the RBI numbers.
Jason Adam (RP Rays) - My ranking: 184 - NFBC ADP ranking: 367
I have Pete Fairbanks higher, but Adam is still my No. 23 RP after pitching to a 1.56 ERA and earning eight saves for the Rays last season. Pairing the two makes a lot of sense to me, particularly when Adam is going this late. There’s a good chance they’ll get 30 saves between them, and both should be of significant help in ERA and WHIP.
Eddie Rosario (OF Braves) - My ranking: 244 - NFBC ADP ranking: 504
Rosario’s 2022 season was ruined by an eye issue and he also wasn’t very good for much of 2021, so it follows that his stock is well down. Still, with the Braves declining to bring in a starting left fielder over the winter, it looks like Rosario will get every chance to bounce back. Rosario posted a .267/.305/.474 line with a 15% strikeout rate from 2019-21. If he can see this year, he should help some even in shallow formats.
Matt Vierling (OF Tigers) - My ranking: 227 - NFBC ADP ranking: 502
Vierling’s .246/.297/.351 line in 357 plate appearances for the Phillies doesn’t stand out, but look at that Statcast page; he hit the ball hard and did so without striking out a ton. He also has elite speed, though that hasn’t made him a big basestealer yet. There’s the chance the Tigers will limit his at-bats against right-handers initially, but my guess is that he winds up winning the starting job in left or maybe at third base. There’s ample upside here, particularly if he gets to work on the finer points of basestealing.
Alec Burleson (OF Cardinals) - My ranking: 334 - NFBC ADP ranking: 639
Burleson hit .331/.372/.532 in 109 games as a 23-year-old in Triple-A last season. He wasn’t as productive in 53 major league plate appearances, but Statcast thought he was unlucky and that his 49% hard-hit rate should have made him an above average hitter. The Cardinals never did bring in a DH over the winter, and while Juan Yepez is probably the favorite for at-bats there now, it’s possible Burleson’s lefty bat could overtake him against right-handers as soon as Opening Day. He doesn’t possess enough home run power to offer big-time fantasy upside, but the all-around bat is pretty strong.
Luis Garcia (2B-SS Nationals) - My ranking: 217 - NFBC ADP ranking: 313
García’s approach leaves much to be desired, but he hit .306/.368/.554 in 364 career plate appearances in Triple-A and he came in at .275/.295/.408 in 377 PA in the majors last season. He should have more to offer in the power department, too; his exit velocities and flyball rates are both trending in the right direction. My guess is that he steps up as a 17-20 homer guy this year, and while that still won’t lead to huge run and RBI numbers, he could settle in the No. 4 or 5 hitter for the Nationals as the season goes along.
Bailey Falter (SP Phillies) - My ranking: 329 - NFBC ADP ranking: 428
One thing I learned in prepping this column is that I just don’t have many starting pitchers outside my top 75 that I see as particularly underrated. That should change some in the coming weeks, as a handful of pitchers will show an uptick in stuff and become more interesting this spring. As for Falter, I expect that he’ll be solid enough to maintain his hold on a spot in the Phillies rotation. He’ll give up too many homers to be of use in ERA, but the WHIP should be nice and he’ll probably get more run support than most.
Myles Straw (OF Guardians) - My ranking: 311 - NFBC ADP ranking: 427
Straw went from .271/.349/.348 with 30 steals in 2021 to .221/.291/.273 with 21 steals last year. I don’t expect him to bounce nearly all of the way back offensively, but he’s so good defensively that he’ll remain a lineup fixture and there’s no reason for him not to run wild, given that he was already an outstanding basestealer before the rules making it a little easier kick in this year. There is a best-case scenario in which he regains the leadoff spot in the Guardians lineup and contends for the MLB lead in steals.
Chas McCormick (OF Astros) - My ranking: 337 - NFBC ADP ranking: 445
I’m not very excited about McCormick, either, but the Astros seem content with him in center field and, given their track record, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they got more out of him than anyone expects them to. He has legitimate power, and he’ll probably be of more use in runs and RBI than the typical No. 8 hitter.
Tyler Wells (SP Orioles) - My ranking: 346 - NFBC ADP ranking: 526
After spending his first year back from Tommy John surgery in pen, Wells joined the Orioles rotation last year was essentially a league-average starter despite having made a total of five career starts in Double-A and none in Triple-A. While his strikeout rate wasn’t as strong as expected, all things considered, I thought it was a rather promising season. He will have to compete to keep his rotation spot this spring, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he winds up as Baltimore’s best pitcher (with the caveat that Grayson Rodriguez could simply blow everyone out of the water there).
Brad Miller (3B-OF Rangers) - My ranking: 374 - NFBC ADP ranking: 681
The Rangers have plenty of at-bats available in left field and at DH, so Miller should get a chance to rebound from a bad first season with the team. He had OPS+s of 122 in 2020 and 107 in 2021 before slipping to 69 last year. Multi-position eligibility helps his case as a depth piece.
Scott McGough (RP Diamondbacks) - My ranking: 380 - NFBC ADP ranking: 609
Someone has to close for the Diamondbacks, and picking the guy who had 69 saves with a 2.44 ERA in Japan the last two years might make the most sense initially. McGough, whose only previous major league experience was a brief stint with the Marlins in 2015, isn’t going to overpower major league hitters, and I’m actually guessing that he’ll wind up as a somewhat below average reliever. Still, I could be wrong there, and the price is definitely right.
Keston Hiura (1B Brewers) - My ranking: 384 - NFBC ADP ranking: 499
I don’t have much hope for Hiura on a Brewers club that’s been stockpiling infielders, but if he gets traded to a rebuilding team this spring, he’d immediately become intriguing. Hiura has 50 homers and 20 steals in his 1,057 career major league plate appearances, and though his strikeout woes were worse than ever last season, he mustered a 115 OPS+ anyway. He’s out of options now, so sending him down is no longer a possibility.
