As stolen bases continue to rise league wide, I will be here every Wednesday to help you track important stolen base trends so you can find more speed for your fantasy teams.
Stealing a base is as much about the opposing pitcher and catcher as it is the actual base runner themself. So, being able to spot which teams and pitchers specifically are being run on most frequently will help you to figure out who can swipe some bags over the next week.
Last week, I highlighted the Rockies as a team that we can stream stolen bases against. While they only allowed three steals against the Mets in their weekend series, they came from Jeff McNeil, Tyrone Taylor, and Starling Marte who are likely three options that could’ve been scooped up off the wire for a free steal.
The Mets head to Colorado to face the Rockies again this weekend.
Before we get to this week’s important trends, here is the stolen base leaderboard over the past seven days.
The cruel irony of Chandler Simpson leading the league in stolen bases over the past week after being demoted only two games into it, but more on that later on.
It’s nice to see Fernando Tatis Jr. remember that he can steal bases after running roughshod through the first few weeks of April and then stagnating in May.
David Hamilton continues to siphon starts from the struggling Kristian Campbell. If Hamilton is playing, he will be stealing bases.
Now, here is the overall stolen base leaderboard on the season.
Pete Crow-Armstrong is a marvel. Stolen base leader, possibly the best defensive player in the league, and 15 home runs already. If he sustains anything close to this level of play for the rest of the season, we could be looking at a first round pick next season.
This is your regular reminder to respect and appreciate José Ramírez as one of the best players of this generation because he doesn’t get that praise enough.
Next, here are some players that we’d hoped would be more aggressive or efficient on the base paths.
Jonathan India is having a disastrous season of epic proportions. He has one COMBINED home run and stolen base this season being one of the worst defensive players in baseball.
Many of the players on this list have lost their green light over the past few weeks and are no longer attempting stolen bases.
Now, let’s go over the most important stolen base trends over the past week.
Fantasy Baseball Stolen Base Targets
The king has returned to their throne with the Marlins being featured as the easiest team to run on in the league by far.
They just allowed eight stolen bases during a three-game series against the Giants. Before that point, the Giants had only stolen 28 bases all season!
Star rookie Agustín Ramírez was once again the primary culprit of this onslaught. While he’s been fantastic at the plate and one of the front-runners in the National League Rookie of the Year race, he routinely gets picked on when he starts at catcher.
He caught one game during that Giants series and they stole four bases on him. Heliot Ramos singled to lead-off the game and stole second just a few pitches later. He and Tyler Fitzgerald executed a double steal of second and third just a few innings later and Luis Matos stole one as well.
This all happened with the left-handed Ryan Weathers on the mound. No bases had been stolen against him in his previous three starts this season and two of which came against the Chicago Cubs, who are third in steals as a team.
Ramírez did catch Monday’s game as well against the Rockies and caught the only would-be base stealer against him. That being said, 25 bases have been stolen against him in just 17 starts behind the plate and he’s only caught three runners.
Focus on the Marlins when streaming stolen bases, especially when Ramírez is catching. Also when Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera are on the mound
Demoted Speed Demon?
Fantasy managers are disappointed with the somewhat unexpected demotion of Rays’ speedster Chandler Simpson. He’d climbed up to third in the league with 19 stolen bases at the time of his demotion in just a little more than a month’s worth of games.
Yet, the team didn’t trust him to play centerfield and he wasn’t progressing much as a hitter. His .285 batting average and .315 on-base percentage were palpable, but he had just a .632 OPS and one of the lowest hard-hit rates in baseball at 15.3%.
That profile at the plate was completely expected of Simpson. In fact, his high batting average that kept his on-base percentage anchored above .300 was probably better than the Rays had hoped for.
The problem tied back to his defense though. He started in center field in his first 11 games after being called up. Then, he moved to left field for 14 of his last 15 starts. He graded out negatively at both spots according to Outs Above Average.
Jake Mangum was activated from the injured list in the corresponding move that sent Simpson down. He’s a plus defender in center field, will likely produce more as a hitter, and has stolen nine bases of his own in 25 games.
Simpson likely showed enough to warrant a promotion later this season if the team is seeking a spark or have another injury to their outfield. For now, he doesn’t offer more to the Rays in real-life baseball than their other options.
