You obviously want to be able to pick out the guys poised to provide ample value from their draft slot. Avoiding potential land mines that could set you back is also a needed skill to have at the draft table. The following 12 players are more likely to fall into the latter category.
Brian Dozier, 2B, Minnesota Twins
Dozier was a league-winner last season. After putting up a rather anemic .202/.294/.329 batting line with five home runs through the end of May, the second baseman then went on to have a four-month run for the ages, sporting a .294/.358/.631 line with a ridiculous 37 long balls, 82 RBI and 83 runs scored over his final 493 plate appearances. It was an American League record for home runs by a second baseman. Dozier significantly upped his hard-hit and fly ball rates in 2016, which supports the power explosion. However, his 18.4 percent HR/FB ratio was easily a career high and is a number that’s simply not likely to be repeated. Dozier is unlikely to have as bad of a stretch as he did in the first two months last season, but it’s much less likely he’ll have as good of a stretch as he did in the final four months. I’ve seen Dozier regularly selected in the third round and even as high as the second round in early mock drafts. I just can’t buy in at that price, even though I’m a fan of the player.
Kyle Hendricks, SP, Chicago Cubs
Hendricks deservedly appeared on a host of sleeper lists last spring following a 2015 season that saw him post an ERA that was not reflective of how well he pitched. The script was flipped in 2016, as the right-hander went from being one of the unluckiest pitchers in the league to one of the luckiest. Hendricks held opponents to a .250 BABIP (the fourth-lowest mark in baseball), and he also had an 81.5 percent strand rate (fourth highest in the league) and a 9.3 percent HR/FB ratio (third lowest in baseball). Now, Hendricks has consistently done a good job of limiting hard contact during his time in the majors. That’s a skill I feel comfortable in saying he possesses at this point. However, some regression to the mean here is a given. Hendricks doesn’t need a full repeat to provide value where he’s being drafted, but there are still other hurlers being taken around the same time as him that I’d much rather have.
Adam Duvall, OF, Cincinnati Reds
Former Giants general manager and current president Brian Sabean has obviously made plenty of good decisions during his tenure in the Bay Area, but one he wishes he had back was giving up Duvall for two pedestrian months of Mike Leake. Duvall consistently piled up big home run totals in the minors but wasn’t ever given a long look by the Giants. He got that opportunity last season in his first full year with the Reds and ran with it, popping 33 home runs and driving in 103 runs on his way to an All-Star season. I believe in Duvall’s power. He ranked 19th in baseball in hard-hit percentage and seventh in fly ball percentage, which is a terrific combination anywhere, but especially when you play half your games at Great American Ball Park. However, Duvall has also put up an ugly 210/50 K/BB ratio in his first 757 big league plate appearances, and he had stretches last season where he looked lost at the plate. The 28-year-old cranked 20 homers from May-June in 2016, but he was a pretty awful hitter otherwise. Duvall gives fantasy owners nothing when he’s not in the midst of a power binge.
Jean Segura, 2B/SS, Seattle Mariners
Segura was truly one of the worst regulars in baseball from 2014-15, putting up an ugly .252/.285/.331 batting line while playing below-average defense. However, he experienced a massive revival last season in the desert, batting .319/.368/.499 with 20 home runs, 33 stolen bases and 102 runs scored. He was the only player in the National League to pile up over 200 hits. Segura upped his hard-hit percentage significantly last season while still maintaining his usual low strikeout percentage. He was still below average with the former percentage, however, and some likely regression in that area as well as his BABIP (.353) could lead to a big drop in average. Also, while Segura hit more balls in the air in 2016, he very much remains a groundball hitter who is trading Chase Field for Safeco Field. I suspect that Segura will wind up being just fine, but I’d much rather wait multiple rounds and draft an Aledmys Diaz or Addison Russell.
Alex Reyes, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
It’s entirely possible that I wind up falling on my face with this call. I love Reyes. There’s a reason he’s arguably the best pitching prospect in the game, with a fastball that reaches 100 miles per hour, a knee-buckling curveball and changeup that he buries when it’s on. He had great success during his first stint in the majors last season, putting up a microscopic 1.57 ERA with 52 strikeouts across 46 innings. However, the eye-opening stuff and excellent debut is going to lead many to believe the 22-year-old is ready to be a fantasy ace right out of the chute, and I just don’t think that’s the case. After returning from a marijuana suspension last year, Reyes posted a 4.96 ERA and 4.4 BB/9 ratio in 14 starts for Triple-A Memphis. Control and pitch efficiency has been an ongoing issue with Reyes. He walked 23 over his 46 frames with the Cardinals and averaged 5 2/3 innings in his five starts. It’s hard to imagine him rectifying those issues in his first full big league season, especially as teams get a second and third look at him. Reyes is also going to have his workload monitored closely in 2017, as the 111 1/3 innings he threw in 2016 were a career high. I love the talent and believe Reyes will be an ace in time, but I suspect he’s going to be picked too soon in redrafts this spring.
(Editor’s Note: Reyes is out for the season following Tommy John surgery. We don’t believe in jinxes.)
J.A. Happ, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage has developed quite a reputation for getting the most out of his hurlers. He found a worthy student in Happ in the second half of the 2015 campaign, helping to propel the left-hander to a 1.85 ERA and 69/13 K/BB ratio over 63 1/3 innings across 11 starts. Happ parlayed that strong finish into a three-year deal with the Blue Jays last winter, and the southpaw put together the best season of his career with 20 wins, a 3.18 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and sixth-place American League Cy Young finish. The secret to Happ’s newfound success seems to be throwing more fastballs -- both four- and two-seamers -- resulting in better control and groundball rates. Of course, Happ also benefitted from a lot of luck last season, with a .268 BABIP (15th lowest in baseball) and 79.7 percent strand rate (10th highest). Both of those marks are likely to normalize to some degree, and I just can’t see Happ providing a whole lot for fantasy owners without some good fortune helping out his ERA and WHIP. He doesn’t miss a ton of bats, he’s in a hitter-friendly park and in the AL. He’s not really going to be on my radar when I’m looking for pitching in the middle rounds.
Yasmany Tomas, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
We got a glimpse last season of the player the Diamondbacks hoped Tomas would be when they handed him a six-year, $68.5 million contract a couple winters ago. The Cuban defector’s raw power started to result in more home runs, as he banged 31 over the boards to tie for the ninth-highest total in the National League. Tomas was also among the league leaders in hard-hit rate, with his 41 percent ranking ninth in baseball and third in the NL behind only Freddie Freeman and Matt Carpenter. Now here’s the rub. Tomas continues to have awful plate discipline with a career 246/48 K/BB ratio, so he’s going to need to keep hitting screamers or be at risk of his batting average tumbling. He’s also certainly not going to be able to buoy his average again by killing lefties to the tune of a .364/.423/.690 line. Finally, while Tomas upped his fly ball rate from his rookie season, he still hit only 31 percent of his balls in the air. A whopping 25 percent of those balls cleared the fence, which surely can’t be counted on again. If Tomas’ home run total drops to, say, 23, he’s just not going to be giving fantasy owners much.
Rick Porcello, SP, Boston Red Sox
Porcello has traded in his groundballs for more strikeouts the last couple seasons, as he’s topped a 20 percent strikeout rate each of the last two years after hovering mostly in the 12-14 percent range during his time with the Tigers. It obviously didn’t really help him in 2015, as he put up an ugly 4.92 ERA and 1.36 WHIP on his way to a 9-15 record. However, the 28-year-old put together a career year in 2016, holding a 3.15 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 189/32 K/BB ratio over 223 frames while going 22-4. Porcello edged out former teammate Justin Verlander for the American League Cy Young award. The righty’s elevated strikeout rate certainly makes him more interesting for fantasy purposes, but there’s reason to believe his other numbers will backslide in 2017. Porcello’s BABIP (.269) was the lowest of his career and the 18th-lowest in baseball, so you have to figure more balls are going to find holes this season. While he’s always had great control, Porcello’s 3.6 percent walk rate was easily the lowest of his career. His WHIP is more likely to be in the 1.20 range than last year’s 1.01 mark, and I’d bet on an ERA in the high 3s. The total package equates to a guy I’m not targeting in the first 10 rounds.
Aaron Sanchez, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays didn’t announce that Sanchez would be a part of their rotation until a week before Opening Day. The hesitancy looked silly in hindsight, as Sanchez went on to lead the American League with a 3.00 ERA to go along with a 1.17 WHIP and 15-2 record. The Jays flirted with sending Sanchez to the bullpen in the second half, even announcing that they planned to, but they quickly reversed course and kept him in the rotation for the duration of the season. It’s a move Toronto almost had to make as they aimed for a deep playoff run, but it’s one that could have ramifications for Sanchez for the 2017 season. Between the regular season and postseason, the 24-year-old threw 211 innings in 2016. That’s a whopping 109 more than he threw in 2015. Now, it certainly doesn’t mean Sanchez is destined to break down or be less effective in 2017. This isn’t an exact science here. But the massive workload increase is enough to make me skittish in investing in Sanchez for the upcoming campaign. I’m also not sure Sanchez possesses the upside that his stuff suggests he might have. He’s posted a middling 19.3 percent strikeout rate in his big league career and hasn’t whiffed even close to a batter per inning since A-ball.
Brad Miller, SS/1B, Tampa Bay Rays
Miller began last season as the Rays’ Opening Day shortstop, but he ended it as their power-hitting first baseman. The 27-year-old focused on swinging harder and driving the ball more in 2016 and it worked. He slugged 30 home runs, a number that bested his career total coming into the season and was accomplished in fewer than half the plate appearances. It came with tradeoffs, however. Miller had a career-high strikeout rate and career-low walk rate for a full season, which helped lead to an underwhelming .243 batting average. Also, Miller’s 13-steal 2015 season looks like an outlier. He was successful on just six of 10 stolen base attempts in 2016 and tried to steal a bag just three times in the second half. Miller upped his fly ball percentage slightly last year but benefitted from a 20.4 percent HR/FB rate, which was the 17th-highest mark in the league. That number will drop in all likelihood, and there’s no way he’s hitting 22 dingers at pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field again. It certainly helps that Miller will retain shortstop eligibility heading into 2017, but that position is much deeper now, and I’m not sure the power breakout sticks.
Junior Guerra, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
What a cool story Guerra was last season. A former catcher who spent years in independent ball before the White Sox signed him to a minor league deal in 2014, Guerra didn’t make his first start for the Brewers until May but finished the year as their best starter with a 2.81 ERA to go along with a nice 1.13 WHIP over 20 outings. While he can touch the mid-90s with his fastball, Guerra’s splitter is his money pitch. Unfortunately, the splitter is a pitch that maybe more than any other leads to elbow issues, and Guerra went on the disabled list with a sore elbow in the second half. He returned strong late in the year, but it’s certainly something to keep in mind. Guerra is also likely to see his luck turn a bit in 2017, as he benefitted from a .250 BABIP that was the fifth-lowest of pitchers who threw at least 120 innings. Additionally, he had the fifth-lowest HR/FB rate (8.3 percent) on that list. Guerra is not a groundball-heavy guy, and he pitches at hitter-friendly Miller Park, so a rise in his HR/FB rate could be bad news. Finally, I must mention that the Brewers reportedly discussed Guerra in trades both in July and over the offseason. The fact that they’re even pondering dealing a guy who isn’t arbitration-eligible until 2019 has to make you believe they have some doubts as to whether he can keep it up. That makes me nervous.
Steven Matz, SP, New York Mets
Let me just say at the outset that my listing of Matz in this space is purely health-related. The Mets’ left-hander posted a 2.25 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 393/124 K/BB ratio over 380 2/3 innings in the minors, and so far, he’s put up a 3.16 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 163/41 K/BB ratio across his first 168 major league frames. That doesn’t even include a 3.68 ERA and 13/4 K/BB ratio over 14 2/3 postseason innings. Clearly the dude can pitch. However, the only thing that might be bigger than Matz’s talent is his propensity for injury. The left-hander underwent Tommy John surgery while in the minors and labored through a longer-than-normal rehab process. In the majors, he’s missed significant time with a torn lat, a back injury, a blister, a strained shoulder and a bone spur in his elbow (he had surgery in October to have the spur removed). Matz hasn’t made more than 24 starts in a season as a pro, and fantasy owners might be happy to get that many out of him in 2017. As I said, I love the talent, but the price tag hasn’t dropped enough for me to take the plunge.
