This week’s Prospect Positional will cover first basemen; a position that contains high-ceiling players who need to make substantial strides in their development and extra bats that are being stashed in Triple-A. This is one of the weakest positions, though there are a number of prospects in other positions that could eventually find their homes at first base, most notably third base prospects Miguel Sano, D.J. Peterson and Maikel Franco.
Note: All statistics are current through Sunday, May 25.
Updated top-12
| Updated | Pre-Season | Name | MLB Team | MiLB Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | Jonathan Singleton | Astros | Oklahoma City (AAA) |
| 2 | 3 | Dan Vogelbach | Cubs | Daytona (High-A) |
| 3 | 7 | Greg Bird | Yankees | Tampa (High-A) |
| 4 | 9 | Christian Walker | Orioles | Bowie (AA) |
| 5 | 5 | Ronald Guzman | Rangers | Hickory (Low-A) |
| 6 | 4 | Dominic Smith | Mets | Savannah (Low-A) |
| 7 | 6 | Max Muncy | A’s | Midland (AA) |
| 8 | 8 | Matthew Olson | A’s | Stockton (High-A) |
| 9 | 11 | Hunter Morris | Brewers | Nashville (AAA) |
| 10 | N/R | Rowdy Tellez | Blue Jays | N/A |
| 11 | N/R | Jesus Aguilar | Indians | Columbus (AAA) |
| 12 | 12 | Stetson Allie | Pirates | Altoona (AA) |
Graduates (Pre-season rank)
| Rank | Name | MLB Team |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jose Abreu | White Sox |
| 10 | C.J. Cron | Angels |
The recent successes of Yoenis Cespedes and Yasiel Puig, along with the pre-injury performance of Kendrys Morales helped Jose Abreu receive the largest contract for a Cuban defector to date. Abreu has not disappointed in the power department, blasting 14 home runs while putting up a .260/.312/.595 slash line. His performance, coupled with the possession of a visa from the Dominican Republic could make a potential bidding war for Alfredo Despaigne very interesting.
C.J. Cron seems to only hit while playing on a team based in California. Raul Ibanez’s poor play and Cron’s monstrous .319/.369/.602 line for Triple-A Salt Lake opened the door for Cron’s promotion. Manager Mike Scioscia seems to still prefer the underperforming Ibanez, but if Cron keeps hitting he could push Ibanez into a backup role.
Small sample size
| Updated | Pre-Season | Name | MLB Team | MiLB Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | N/R | Rowdy Tellez | Blue Jays | N/A |
Don’t let the fact that Rowdy Tellez was a 30th round pick in the 2013 draft deceive you, he received an $850,000 signing bonus because of his light-tower power. His power and his potential to hit for high average could turn him into a very potent left-handed bat. He could hit .280 with 25-plus home runs. He should be assigned to Short Season-A Vancouver in June. His first name is actually Ryan, as Rowdy is a nickname that he has used his entire life.
Superb performance
| Updated | Pre-Season | Name | MLB Team | MiLB Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | Jonathan Singleton | Astros | Oklahoma City (AAA) |
| 3 | 7 | Greg Bird | Yankees | Tampa (High-A) |
| 4 | 9 | Christian Walker | Orioles | Bowie (AA) |
| 11 | N/R | Jesus Aguilar | Indians | Columbus (AAA) |
Jonathan Singleton, much like former teammate George Springer, is not long for prospect lists. He has a solid slash line of .269/.392/.537 with nine doubles and 12 home runs for Triple-A Oklahoma City, and the chances that he will qualify for Super 2 status are decreasing by the day. He should be playing first base for the Astros within the next few weeks. Singleton has too much swing and miss to fully utilize his power or hit for a high average, but he has a good approach at the plate and can hit for power and rack up walks.
After missing the first month of the season with a sore back, Greg Bird has made the Florida State League look like batting practice, putting up a .302/.408/.524 line with three home runs and five doubles in only 17 games. A 5th round pick in the 2011 draft, Bird has above-average power from the left side, which could turn into 25+ home runs in the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium.
Christian Walker returned to Double-A Bowie for 2014 and has set the league on fire, hitting .326/.385/.560 with 12 home runs. If Walker keeps hitting, he could split time with Chris Davis at first base and designated hitter, pushing Nelson Cruz into left field full time. He could hit .280 with 10-15 home runs in the major leagues.
Over the past few seasons, Jesus Aguilar has shown that he can hit for both high average and power. He was recently optioned back down to Triple-A Columbus after playing sparingly in the major leagues, hitting just .143/.300/.143. Though he is a first baseman, he is a clunky fielder whose natural position is designated hitter. Aguilar will remain somewhat on the periphery behind Nick Swisher and the resurgent Lonnie Chisenhall, but if he keeps hitting in Triple-A, he will eventually crack the lineup.
Holding serve
| Updated | Rank | Name | MLB Team | MiLB Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Max Muncy | A’s | Midland (AA) |
| 8 | 8 | Matt Olson | A’s | Stockton (High-A) |
| 9 | 11 | Hunter Morris | Brewers | Nashville (AAA) |
| 12 | 12 | Stetson Allie | Pirates | Altoona (AA) |
Max Muncy has hit for a good average with power for Double-A Midland, showing that his power surge was not a California League mirage. In many ways, Muncy is a typical first base prospect for the A’s, as he has good power and will work the count. If he keeps hitting like this, he could see time in Oakland by the end of 2014.
Matt Olson is hitting for a low average, drawing a lot of walks, and hitting for power. Due to his high strikeout totals, his likelihood of reaching his ceiling are lower than other prospects, but batters who can work counts and hit for power often carve out roles as backup first basemen/designated hitters/pinch hitters.
For now, Hunter Morris is stuck playing for Triple-A Nashville, acting as an insurance policy in the event of an injury or prolonged slump to first basemen Lyle Overbay and Mark Reynolds. Though he has put up a solid line in 2014, he struggles against left-handed pitching and is an average first baseman at best. He projects as little more than a serviceable first baseman who hits around .260 with 15-20 home runs.
Stetson Allie received a $2 million signing bonus from the Pittsburgh Pirates to be a pitcher. He spent 2011 struggling, and made the switch to being an everyday player after two disastrous appearances 2012. As a pitcher, Allie possessed a fastball that sat in the upper-90s, and he has a great arm that is masked by his defensive deficiencies, which have made him into a first baseman. He also possesses top of the charts power, but struggles with pitch recognition and strikes out far too much to effectively utilize his power. If he makes the major leagues, and it is a substantial “if” given his .227/.339/.481 line with nine doubles and 10 home runs, he could put up a Rob Deer-like line where he strikes out more than once per game and struggles to hit .200, but hits 30 home runs due to his power.
Struggling
| Updated | Pre-Season | Name | MLB Team | MiLB Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 3 | Dan Vogelbach | Cubs | Daytona (High-A) |
| 5 | 5 | Ronald Guzman | Rangers | Hickory (Low-A) |
| 6 | 4 | Dominic Smith | Mets | Savannah (Low-A) |
Dan Vogelbach, the Cubs’ 2nd round pick in 2011, has struggled for High-A Daytona in 2014, hitting just .255/.326/.370 with four home runs and seven doubles. His entire value comes from his smooth, powerful lefty swing, and his 2014 production has been a disappointment so far. He has hit much better of late, hitting .400/.455/.750 with two home runs over the past six games.
Despite his size and smooth lefty swing, Ronald Guzman has yet to see his power manifest in games. Additionally, he has struggled offensively in 2014, hitting just .218/.288/.301 with eight doubles and one home run. The Rangers’ off-season acquisition of Prince Fielder put up a sizeable roadblock for Guzman, but if he hits, he could be part of an impressive 1B/DH rotation assuming Guzman develops and Fielder comes back in 2015.
Dominic Smith is a better real-world first base prospect than a fantasy prospect, as he is a good fielder who could turn into a gold glove first baseman. He has struggled in 2014, hitting just .271/.335/.312 in 48 games in the South Atlantic League. At the start of the season, he was the sixth-youngest player in the league, and Low-A is an aggressive assignment for most prep draft picks in their first season after being drafted, as most are assigned to Rookie-level or Short Season-A.
On the Bubble (listed alphabetically)
| Updated | Pre-Season | Name | MLB Team | MiLB Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bubble | N/R | Samir Duenez | Royals | Lexington (Low-A) |
| Bubble | N/R | Max Kepler | Twins | Fort Myers (High-A) |
| Bubble | N/R | Daniel Palka | Diamondbacks | South Bend (Low-A) |
| Bubble | N/R | Richie Shaffer | Rays | Montgomery (AA) |
Much like when the Royals assigned Raul Mondesi to Low-A Lexington when he was 17, Samir Duenez is being challenged. He was the youngest player to start the season in the South Atlantic League, and the second youngest player to start the season in organized league games (only Julio Urias is younger). He hit .294/.380/.337 with 12 doubles and two triples for the Rookie-level AZL Royals in 2013, tying for fifth in the league with 55 hits. Though he is only hitting .195/.233/.276 in 2014, he has impressed scouts by limiting his strikeouts (only 18 in 129 plate appearances). He has impressive bat speed and could turn into a .300 hitter with 20-plus home run power, but he has a long way to go before he could reach the major leagues.
In terms of fascinating backstories, few can match Max Kepler. He was born in Germany to parents who were both dancers with the Berlin ballet. Kepler’s mother is an American who grew up in San Antonio, Texas, and Max grew up playing baseball. He was signed for $775,000 by the Minnesota Twins in 2009 and has slowly progressed through the minor leagues. A tremendous all-around athlete, Kepler has struggled in 2014, hitting just .221/.318/.353 in the High-A Florida State League.
Daniel Palka was drafted by the Arizona Diamondbacks in the third round of the 2013 draft out of Georgia Tech. The hulking left-hander (he’s 6’2” and 225 pounds) led the Cape Cod league in 2012 with 11 home runs. He primarily played right field while in college, and hit .369/.462/.693 with 14 home runs as a junior. He has a pull-friendly approach, though his high strikeout totals (111 in 508 plate appearances) as a professional may adversely impact his ability to fully utilize his power.
Since he was drafted with the 25th overall pick in the 2012 draft out of Clemson, Richie Shaffer has shown off his above-average power (.176 ISO), struck out too much (173 strikeouts in 808 plate appearances), and methodically moved up the organizational ladder. Though he has exclusively played third base in his professional career, the combination of his below-average glove work and Evan Longoria should move him to first base. Shaffer has the talent to hit .275 with 20-plus home runs in the major leagues, though he will need to show he can handle AA pitching before he will be given a shot against Triple-A pitchers.
