Today’s column looks at play-types such as pick-and-rolls, spot ups and isolations, adding depth to last week’s analysis of fantasy matchups. Knowing the strengths and weaknesses of an opponent can make all the difference. To get there, we’ll be using player-tracking data from Synergy sports, which can also be found on NBA.com’s excellent statistics pages.
As an example, consider tonight’s game between the Thunder and the Magic. OKC has the second-best defensive rating this season, behind Boston, but they’ve been especially ruthless against pick-and-roll ball-handlers. In those situations, they’ve allowed a league-low 0.68 points per possession. They’ve even discouraged teams from attempting to end plays with P&R ball-handlers (a situation they face defensively just 12.3% of the team, also lowest in the league).
The Thunder have also effectively prevented teams from getting out in transition, facing that play-type just 12.1% of the time (second-lowest in the league). Elfrid Payton, meanwhile, relies on exactly those two plays offensively -- ‘P&R ball-handler’ and ‘transition’ account for 65.0% of all of his plays. Take away Payton’s bread-and-butter offense, as OKC surely will, and we’re likely to see him struggle.
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That type of analysis can quickly be performed for any matchup in the league -- this column breaks down every team’s performance vs. different play-types at a glance.
Before going any further, let’s clarify what we’re referring to with ‘play-types’. These definitions come from Synergy (if you’re familiar with them, skip ahead!):
Transition: When the possession-ending event comes before the defense sets following a possession change and a transition from one end of the court to the other.
Isolation: When the possession-ending event is created during a “one-on-one” matchup. The defender needs to be set and have all defensive options at the initiation of the play.
Pick-and-roll, ball handler: A screen is set on the ball handler’s defender out on the perimeter. The offensive player can use the screen or go away from it and if the play yields a possession-ending event, it is tagged as a pick and roll.
Pick-and-roll, roll man: When a screen is set for the ball handler, and the screen setter then receives the ball for a possession-ending event. This action can include: pick and rolls, pick and pops and the screener slipping the pick.
Post-up: When an offensive player receives the ball with their back to the basket and is less than 15' from the rim when the possession-ending event occurs.
Spot-up: When the possession-ending event is a catch-and-shoot or catch-and-drive play.
Hand-Off: The screen setter starts with the ball and hands the ball to a player cutting close by. This enables the player handing the ball off to effectively screen off a defender creating space for the player receiving the ball.
Cut: An interior play where the finisher catches a pass while moving toward, parallel to or slightly away from the basket. This will include back screen and flash cuts as well as times when the player is left open near the basket.
Off Screen: Identifies players coming off screens (typically downs screens) going away from the basket toward the perimeter. This includes curl, fades, and coming off straight.
Putback: When the rebounder attempts to score before passing the ball or establishing themselves in another play type.
Miscellaneous: When the action doesn’t fit any of the other play types. This includes, but is not limited to, last second full court shots, fouls in the backcourt, or errant passes not out of a different play type, etc.
It’s also important to remember that not all play-types are created equal. If you’re analyzing a matchup for Andre Drummond or Marcin Gortat, it doesn’t really matter how well their opponent defends spot-up shooters or off-screen plays. Furthermore, some play types are simply much more common than others. Here is the breakdown of play-type frequency and average points per possession this season, from most- to least-common:
As you can see, spot up attempts dominate, followed by P&R ball-handler and transition. If you combine both types of P&R plays (ball-handler and roll man), however, that would make pick-and-rolls the single most common play -- no surprise there. The column displaying ‘Average PPP’ also reveals that ball-handlers haven’t been scoring with efficiency this season. The 0.81 PPP is lowest among any play type, whereas ‘cuts’ emerge as extremely efficient.
Here’s a one-stop look at each team’s performance vs. each play, as expressed by points per possession:
Now, let’s add ‘play frequency’ to the mix for a complete picture. For example, in the chart below for spot ups, you’ll see that the Thunder face spot-up plays on 24.5% of their defensive possessions, more than any team in the league. At the other end of the spectrum, the Nets face spot-ups just 13.9% of the time -- this is partly because Brooklyn has made themselves a target in pick-and-rolls, so teams are attacking them there instead. After each chart, I’ll list a handful or so players who are uniquely dependent upon that specific play-type -- these are the guys most likely to be impacted by matchups, good or bad.
Spot-Up
OG Anunoby (league-leading 55.0% of his offensive possessions)
Al-Farouq Aminu (50.0%)
Wesley Johnson (49.6%)
Danny Green (46.7%)
Stanley Johnson (46.3%)
Trevor Ariza (43.1%)
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (41.2%)
Serge Ibaka (40.6%)
P&R Ball-Handler
Tyler Ulis (58.4%)
Mike James (55.9%...the Suns’ PGs really lean into this play type)
D’Angelo Russell (54.3%)
Kemba Walker (54.1%)
Reggie Jackson (50.3%)
Dennis Schroder (49.4%)
Damian Lillard (47.7%)
Jarrett Jack (47.6%)
Lou Williams (47.3%)
Chris Paul (44.8%)
Ricky Rubio (42.8%)
DeMar DeRozan (41.5%)
Transition
Elfrid Payton (35.1%...as mentioned, Payton is uniquely dependent on transition buckets)
Darren Collison (30.3%)
Norman Powell (30.3%)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (29.2%)
James Ennis (28.6%)
DeMarre Carroll (28.2%)
Robert Covington (28.0%)
Bojan Bogdanovic (27.7%)
Will Barton (27.4%)
Isolation
James Harden (26.9%, also at a whopping 1.22 PPP in isolations)
Harrison Barnes (26.3%)
Carmelo Anthony (26.0%)
John Wall (23.5%)
LeBron James (22.2%)
Austin Rivers (19.7%)
Jamal Crawford (19.5%)
Dion Waiters (19.4%)
Cut
John Henson (44.1%)
Zaza Pachulia (33.1%)
Rudy Gobert (31.6%)
Omri Casspi (30.8%)
Noah Vonleh (30.1%)
Taj Gibson (29.1%)
Marcin Gortat (29.1%)
Ed Davis (27.3%)
John Collins (24.3%)
P&R Roll Man (includes pick-and-pops)
Nene (42.0%)
Myles Turner (41.7%)
Domantas Sabonis (40.7%)
Clint Capela (35.1%)
Jarrett Allen (33.9%)
Dwight Powell (33.3%)
John Collins (31.7%)
Tyler Zeller (31.0%)
Jonas Valanciunas (27.4%)
Nikola Jokic (27.2%)
Dirk Nowitzki (27.2%)
Post-Up
Joel Embiid (41.8%, by far tops in the league...0.95 PPP)
Dwight Howard (36.4%)
LaMarcus Aldridge (36.4%)
Marc Gasol (31.5%)
Skal Labissiere (31.4%...a mere 0.68 PPP)
Zach Randolph (30.0%)
Enes Kanter (28.2%)
Willy Hernangomez (28.1%...he’s at 0.33 PPP...yuck)
Hassan Whiteside (26.2%)
Also at or above 20% frequency on post ups are...Jusuf Nurkic, Kristaps Porzingis, Blake Griffin, Al Horford, Dirk Nowitzki, Kevin Love, Jonas Valanciunas, Anthony Davis, Greg Monroe, Marcin Gortat, Markieff Morris, Willie Cauley-Stein and Karl-Anthony Towns.
Hand-Off
Wayne Ellington (27.9%)
Avery Bradley (27.8%)
Luke Kennard (26.6%)
J.J. Redick (20.2%)
Gary Harris (19.8%)
Allen Crabbe (18.2%)
Off Screen
Kyle Korver (41.1%...more than 10% above anyone else!)
Klay Thompson (30.5%)
Jodie Meeks (28.7%)
Troy Daniels (26.2%)
Allen Crabbe (25.7%)
Marco Belinelli (22.7%)
J.R. Smith (20.3%)
Nicolas Batum (20.0%)
Stephen Curry (19.2%)
Putback
Tyson Chandler (31.6%)
DeAndre Jordan (29.4%)
Andre Drummond (28.1%...4.5 putback attempts per game, nearly double the next-closest player)
Alex Len (26.1%)
Steven Adams (24.2%)
I encourage everyone to spend some time with these numbers, and to use the play-type data above in conjunction with the player-specific data available on NBA.com. This is only one way of analyzing fantasy values, of course, but it can be a powerful tool -- especially in points leagues and DFS, where scoring is paramount. As usual, if you have any insights or questions, just send me a message via email or Twitter (@Knaus_RW). Good luck this week.
