Now that the NFL Draft is complete, fantasy players can begin to fully assess the incoming rookie class. Along with the film and metrics that we’ve all been studying for months, draft capital and team situation can now be factored in to give us a complete picture of these players entering their respective NFL careers.
I recently hosted ten dynasty rookie mock drafts on behalf of Dynasty League Football for the purpose of forming rookie average draft position (ADP) data. This data is more important than ever in 2019 as we all try to formulate rankings and tiers in order to identify individual player value. Here are the results…
Note: Full rookie ADP data can be found at Dynasty League Football
Tier One:
1.01 N’Keal Harry, WR NE
Fantasy players got a nice surprise at the end of the first round when the New England Patriots chose a skill position player for the second straight year. After making him the top player off the board, dynasty players are counting on WR N’Keal Harry to have a similar early impact as RB Sony Michel did last season. The retirement of TE Rob Gronkowski, departure of WR Chris Hogan and uncertainty surrounding WR Josh Gordon could offer Harry a starting gig from day one.
1.02 Josh Jacobs, RB OAK
While Harry is the favorite of hardcore dynasty players, expect Raiders first-round RB Josh Jacobs to be the top pick in the majority of rookie drafts. In one of the most telegraphed picks of the weekend, Oakland used one of their three first rounders on Jacobs with visions of making him their feature back. Veteran RB Marshawn Lynch retired just before the draft and the recently-signed Isaiah Crowell didn’t even cause the Raiders to doubt their Jacobs pick. Crowell would go on to tear his Achilles, ending his 2019 season. Jacobs is now locked into a major role for the revamped Oakland offense and is a lock top two pick in dynasty leagues.
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Tier Two:
1.03 Miles Sanders, RB PHI
After sitting behind RB Saquon Barkley for years at Penn State, former top recruit Miles Sanders got his shot in 2018 and showed off, totaling over 1,400 yards and nine scores. It took fantasy players a little while to catch on to Sanders’ potential, making him a steady riser throughout the pre-draft process. Sanders became the second back drafted, landing with the progressive Eagles Offense. Sanders has the do-it-all prowess to overtake recently-acquired Jordan Howard, putting him at the top of this second tier.
1.04 David Montgomery, RB CHI
Long considered the favorite to be the top back drafted for fantasy purposes, Iowa State’s David Montgomery lost some value since the college season ended after an ordinary Combine performance and concerns about his long speed. Montgomery’s landing spot is ideal though, giving some much-needed life to his long-term value. After dealing away Howard, the Bears have an opening and Montgomery is the early favorite to be the team’s lead back. He also is a much more capable pass catcher than Howard, which could hurt the production of RB Tarik Cohen.
1.05 A.J. Brown, WR TEN
Ole Miss WR A.J. Brown was a favorite of many entering the draft, but he fell further than expected, landing with the Titans in the middle of Round Two. Tennessee’s new coaching staff has already proclaimed their desire to build the offense around RB Derrick Henry and QB Marcus Mariota enters the season with some serious concerns. Each of these acts as dings on Brown’s short-term outlook, making it a surprise to see him landing in this second tier.
1.06 D.K. Metcalf, WR SEA
One of the most-discussed prospects entering the NFL Draft was beefcake WR D.K. Metcalf, who blazed the 40 at the Combine but then showed pitifully in the agility drills. Once considered a lock first-rounder and potential top ten pick, Metcalf tumbled to the end of the second round, where the Seahawks ended his fall and added to their suddenly very thin receiver corps. With veteran WR Doug Baldwin considering retirement, Metcalf could step into a major role immediately.
Tier Three:
1.07 T.J. Hockenson, TE DET
The first pass-catcher drafted leads off the third tier according to our rookie ADP. The Lions once again spent a top-ten pick on a tight end, grabbing Iowa’s T.J. Hockenson to hopefully do what Eric Ebron couldn’t in Detroit, contribute as an all-around player. Hockenson can block and catch and does both at a near-elite level for his position. The Lions and QB Matthew Stafford failed to get past the loss of WR Golden Tate last season and made little effort to improve their pass-catching corps. Despite the typical slow development of the tight end position, Hockenson is yet another rookie who could see action early in his career.
1.08 Parris Campbell, WR IND
Fantasy players had already targeted the Colts’ rookie receiver as a player to focus on in all formats, we just had to wait until the draft to learn the identity of that player. Indianapolis used one of their second-round picks on Ohio State’s Parris Campbell. One of the pre-draft knocks on Campbell was his very low aDot, catching only two passes of 20+ Air Yards. Surprisingly, the Colts have plans to deploy the speedy Campbell as a deep-threat. While he has the upside, he hasn’t proven he can excel in this role. Landing with QB Andrew Luck and paired with WR T.Y. Hilton, Campbell’s stock is on the rise.
1.09 J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, WR PHI
The Eagles have reportedly been shopping disappointing WR Nelson Agholor, which makes the selection of Stanford jump-ball receiver J.J. Arcega-Whiteside. With presumed top receivers Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson on the back-end of their respective careers, there is a legitimate long-term opportunity for JJAW in Philly. While his ADP has settled in here at 1.09, he’s being drafted all over the board, as early as top-five and as late as the third round of early rookie drafts.
1.10 Deebo Samuel, WR SF
In a class full of big-name and big-bodied wideouts, it was South Carolina’s Deebo Samuel who was the third receiver selected, coming off the board early on Day Two to the receiver-needy 49ers. Samuel is a versatile and underrated athlete who can line up all over the field. He does have some injury concerns and is a year older than most of his peers in this class but remains a solid value later in the first round of drafts.
1.11 Noah Fant, TE DEN
It is rare to see two tight ends drafted in the first round of rookie drafts. It is unheard of for both of those players to hail from the same school, but that’s what we have with Iowa’s Noah Fant and Hockenson. Fant was also a top-twenty pick in the NFL Draft, being snatched up by Denver after they traded down. The Broncos have not had a productive tight end since Julius Thomas was catching touchdowns from QB Peyton Manning. With injuries and inexperience among the Denver pass-catching group, Fant could make a fast impact.
1.12 Kyler Murray, QB ARI
In some ways, you might be surprised to see QB Kyler Murray in the top-twelve rookies, making him a first-rounder in the typical rookie draft. After all, with the depth of the quarterback position, fantasy players typically wait as long as possible to focus on the position. Coming off a Heisman season at Oklahoma, Murray’s hype has been quickly building with some already considering him a top-ten dynasty quarterback. He’s piggy-backing on the success of his former teammate QB Baker Mayfield but is said to have a stronger arm. If we were re-drafting the 2018 rookie class, Mayfield would surely be a part of the top 12 picks, so maybe this idea isn’t so outlandish.
