In this weekly article, we’ll use the early betting lines from Vegas to take a deeper look at which games to target and avoid for NFL DFS. Implied team totals have positive correlations with fantasy output, especially for quarterbacks. Plus, we’ll highlight some potentially under the radar teams with high implied team totals despite a lower over/under. Note that these lines will probably change over the course of the week, which is why we call it ‘starting’ points.
Target:
Cleveland at Tennessee, Total 54
Titans minus-5.5
The Titans and Browns both carry an impressive 8-3 record into Week 13. Both look to be in good shape for the playoffs, but the game definitely matters to both teams. As these teams are pretty well-matched, this should be an interesting game to watch as well as pick on for fantasy. Both defenses have weaknesses to exploit. Cleveland allows the 10th most fantasy points to QB, and third-most to TEs. With a game total, and team total this high, Ryan Tannehill should be on your radar. He’s had a couple highs and a couple lows, but generally Tannehill is a high floor, good cash game option. I’m expecting around 25 fantasy points from him this weekend. Jonnu Smith is one of several tight ends used by the Titans, and although I think highly of him, he is coming off a game without a target. Consider him a risk/reward play this week, especially on DraftKings where he is most affordable. A.J. Brown has had his salary fluctuate a bit lately, but coming off a surprisingly big game, in which he scored on special teams, it’s near the top of WR salaries this weekend. The question is whether the Titans will throw a lot or rely mostly on Derrick Henry, as they like to do. The matchup is better on the passing side, but Henry doesn’t care about that. Plus, it’s December officially now. This is his time. However, he’s not easy to afford, except on Yahoo ($34), since his salary is approaching that of Dalvin Cook this week. My advice is Tannehill alone, or Tannehill plus Henry on the Titans side.[[ad:athena]]
For Cleveland, the matchups are good across the board as Tennessee gives up the eighth-most overall fantasy points. Baker Mayfield may be tempting based off matchups alone, and he and Jarvis Landry seem to have a newfound connection, but I for one do not trust it. This is a team that will run the ball like their life depends on it, so the only real must-play in this game is Nick Chubb. Fortunately, he does get a Top 8 RB matchup, and with his elusivity and big-play potential, should equal or surpass Henry’s output. No one has more big plays than Chubb this season (nine, 15 yards or more), despite him missing significant time. You can try to make a ‘playing from behind’ game script justification for rostering Mayfield, but I think there are too many better options in his range to risk another low-volume effort from him.
Jacksonville at Minnesota, Total 52
Vikings minus-9.5
One of those cheaper QBs I like more than Mayfield is Kirk Cousins. Can he be trusted? No guarantees, but the way Justin Jefferson has been playing is a big boost to my confidence in Cousins. He has been averaging about 22 fantasy points per game the last month, but is still priced for his floor on FanDuel. With Adam Thielen also likely back this weekend, in this fantastic matchup, I’m all in on the Vikings pass game. Cook, as noted above, remains the most expensive running back on all three sites this week, and his roster percentage should be down after the poor effort vs. Carolina. He, like Cousins, gets a Top 5 fantasy matchup against the Jaguars, and should bounce back in a big way, assuming the ankle that caused him to miss a few plays Sunday is no big deal. He might be too expensive for the perfect cash game lineup, but in big tournaments could make a nice impact.
The Jaguars will have to decide between Gardner Minshew and Mike Glennon this week. Glennon played surprisingly well after not starting for over two years, but Minshew had his moments early this season too. Another question mark is D.J. Chark. He has a chance to return, and if he does, and Minshew starts, I love them together. The Vikings secondary hasn’t gotten much better as the season wears on, as they still give up the third-most fantasy points in the league to wide receivers.
Avoid:
Cincinnati at Miami, Total 42
Dolphins minus-11
The Dolphins could easily appear in the section below with their being such large favorites over the lowly Bengals but their offense is hard to trust. Brandon Allen does not appear to be a great answer to the loss of Joe Burrow, and the Bengals are one of the lowest scoring teams in the league. Miami allows the second fewest real points per game. Moreover, the Bengals have turned the ball over 17 times this season, and Miami ranks third in defensive turnovers (19) which altogether makes the Dolphins D/ST an attractive option this week, regardless of cost (they are the most expensive option, but not by a lot).
On the offensive side, it sounds like Tua Tagovailoa and Myles Gaskin could be back, but there are more questions than answers at this point. The Bengals are really, truly unable to defend opposing tight ends, and that puts Mike Gesicki on the radar at the hard-to-fill position. He scored in Week 12, and has exactly five targets in each of the last three games.
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Consider:
Seattle vs. NY Giants, Total 48
Seahawks minus-10
Seattle was something of a fantasy letdown Monday Night, with Russell Wilson and Tyler Lockett having zero connection, and Chris Carson getting outworked by Carlos Hyde. DK Metcalf was his normal dominant self, spurred on, as we learned Tuesday, by negative comparisons to Calvin Johnson. The Giants have looked good on defense at times this year, but you have to remember what division they play in and add in a couple other easy matchups to put any worry out of your mind. The main problem I see is that the Seahawks may not have to try too hard here as the Giants look prepared to start Colt McCoy again in Week 13. Wilson is the most expensive QB on the boards this week, and I probably won’t be paying up for him given my concerns about what he will be asked to do to win this game. Carson was more effective than Hyde against a soft Philly run defense, and could be worth a roster spot on DraftKings or Yahoo. He’s a little pricey for me on FanDuel (which should keep him out of most lineups). Lockett and Metcalf are always GPP options, but the solid cash game play is the Seattle D/ST.
Green Bay vs. Philadelphia, Total 46.5
Packers minus-9.5
Speaking of that soft Eagles’ run defense, Jones, not Rodgers, is the first Aaron that comes to mind for this game. Jones hasn’t had a PPR game under 10 fantasy points yet this year, averages almost 10 more fantasy points at home than on the road, and while he’s expensive, he is fairly priced across the sites. Philadelphia is allowing 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game, tied for the league lead, and opponents run on them at the second highest rate. Green Bay is the highest scoring team in the league, so I can’t argue with playing Rodgers or Davante Adams this week, either, though given their salaries, Jones is the safest option. That is, not counting the Packers’ D/ST. I’ve long loved them at home when it’s cold, and while the Packers don’t top any defensive stats rankings, the Eagles have made it easy on their opponents, allowing a league-high 4.2 sacks per game and turning the ball over 21 times (third-most).
Las Vegas at NY Jets, Total 47.5
Vegas minus-8.5
When you consider the spot the Raiders were in in Week 12, it seems unfair to even call the Seahawks fantasy let-downs. Las Vegas was one of, if not the worst offense facing what used to be the most generous defense for fantasy. Perhaps they succumbed to the jet lag, which doesn’t give me a lot of hope for another cross-country matchup. I had to include them given how much respect Vegas is showing them (is there a hometown bias now?), but I admit my confidence is low. Yes, the Jets are terrible on both sides of the ball, but Vegas is almost equally bad on defense and based on last week, their downside is the equal to any New York team. The other angle here is that Derek Carr, Henry Ruggs III and Darren Waller should find their way into very few lineups this week, so if you do use them in a GPP and they perform as well as others in this situation have, it could be a big swing.
Consider the Raiders pure risk/reward, and focus on the pass game over the run game. With Josh Jacobs on the injury report to start the week, I don’t want to rely on Devontae Booker for DFS points, or to see Jacobs lose any to him in a time share scenario. The Jets also get top passing and rushing matchups, but there is no way I’m rostering Frank Gore or Sam Darnold this week. If you try a tournament lineup with a Raiders stack, you might run it back with Denzel Mims or Breshad Perriman.
