This weekly article gets us ready for NFL DFS by considering some of the safest stacks, contrarian stacks, and a mini-stack or two. The premise is based on research showing the degree of correlation between one player’s fantasy output and another in his game. Among the strongest correlations are QB-QB(opponent), QB-WR1, QB-WR2, QB-WR1(opponent), QB-TE, and RB-D/ST.
Safe Stacks:
Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle: Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett
You’ll have to bargain hunt to round out a lineup stacking this game, my favorite of the week. All three DFS sites demand you pay top salaries for the stars of Seattle and Arizona. Murray is the most expensive QB on Yahoo ($40), but fourth-most on DraftKings ($7100) and FanDuel ($8400). I’m fine with using Russell Wilson instead on FD or Yahoo, but the savings you get with Murray, who is now fantasy’s leading scorer, are worth it on DK. Murray has six rushing touchdowns, tied for second in the league among ALL players (with Derrick Henry, behind Dalvin Cook, who has seven). His favorite target, Hopkins, was overshadowed on MNF by Christian Kirk, who happened to get two nice scores vs. Dallas. The target volume that Hopkins sees is irresistible in this, the best WR matchup for fantasy. Seattle ranks first in fantasy points to WR, second to QB, and second overall. I think a lot of people will chase Kirk’s points and lower salary, but the safe move is rostering Hopkins in what Vegas thinks will be one of the highest scoring shootouts of the day.
Which brings me to the Seahawks, who are 3.5-point road favorites in this high scoring game. Wilson has made it abundantly clear that he can sustain two WR1s in this offense. The Cardinals’ defense is no pushover, another reason to prefer Murray to Wilson, but Lockett and Metcalf, not to mention Chris Carson and Wilson himself, test defenses in ways that few other teams can. I personally find it really hard to decide between them, so I’m taking both in this game stack. If you’re less inclined to believe in Seattle or can’t live with the rest of your lineup if you build this full Top Tier stack, Lockett is pretty significantly cheaper than Metcalf on Yahoo and DraftKings. [[ad:athena]]
LA Chargers vs. Jacksonville: Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Justin Jackson
It’s no secret that I love the Chargers this weekend. The combination of coming off BYE, low salaries and fantastic matchups all around make this an easy stack for me. The Jaguars are one of nine teams allowing opponents more than 30 points per game, on average, and Vegas has LA as 8-point favorites at home this Sunday. Herbert ($6400 DK, $7500 FD, $32 Yahoo) has seen his salary rise, but he still feels like a bargain on sites like DraftKings, where he is the 10th-most expensive option. In the two games prior to the BYE, Herbert threw for seven touchdowns with only one interception. Game script here suggests an early, sustained lead for the Chargers. As much as I like Mike Williams as a salary-saving option, I would only prioritize Williams over Allen if Allen continues to be limited in practice with his back. Mostly, I’m slotting Williams into various tournament lineups for his upside, while relying on Allen in a cash game stack. Finally, it would be silly to stack the Chargers without a running back in one of the league-best RB matchups for fantasy. The Jaguars are giving up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing backs, and Jackson is the back that had been getting the majority of work –both rushing and receiving. He’s also generally cheaper than Joshua Kelley. If you’re using this stack in multi-entry tournament lineups, it absolutely would be prudent to hedge with Kelley in one.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee: Ben Roethlisberger, Chase Claypool, A.J. Brown
This is another game with a high over/under and narrow spread where we should expect some fantasy fireworks on both sides. Pittsburgh has the strong defensive advantage, allowing the third-fewest points per game and fourth-fewest overall fantasy points to opponents. When it comes to scoring, the teams are much closer, with the Titans ranking second in points per game and the Steelers coming in fourth. The Titans have been a Top 6-7 matchup for opposing WR and QB, respectively, so no surprise to see Big Ben heading up this stack. Although he is coming off a disappointing fantasy performance vs. Cleveland, a day when his team scored 38 points, Ben does have an impressive 11:1 TD:INT ratio and four of five multi-touchdown games. The fantasy world is divided between crowing Claypool the new No. 1 in Pittsburgh or taking a wait and see approach with Diontae Johnson, James Washington or JuJu Smith-Schuster. I’m a Claypool believer, based on years of watching this team operate with Roethlisberger at the helm. He likes “his guy”, even if that is a different guy every year, and this year it clearly seems to be Claypool. It helps that he’s proven versatile, rushing for two touchdowns, and reliable, catching 71 percent of the passes thrown at him this season.
The Titans should also be expected to adopt a game plan that favors the pass. Although Pittsburgh’s pass rush and sack rate are tops in the league, their defensive front has been exceptionally good at stopping the run (allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to RBs). A.J. Brown has re-emerged as the star he became last season, with 12 catches on 16 targets and three touchdown receptions in the last two weeks. He’s the easy counterpoint to a Steelers stack.
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Contrarian Stacks:
Detroit Lions at Atlanta: Matthew Stafford, Kenny Golladay, D’Andre Swift, Calvin Ridley
The Falcons are favored here and Matt Ryan is coming off a terrific, 4-TD game. I expect that side to have higher roster percentages. I do love Ridley in this game, although he took a backseat to Julio Jones in Week 6, I think he’ll be featured this Sunday. Watch for updates on his elbow between now and Sunday. Since the salaries are so similar, it’s easy to swap from Ridley to Jones in this stack to cover both bases. I am going back to the Stafford well this week, despite his coming up short in last week’s similarly good matchup. Atlanta actually does give up the most fantasy points to opposing QBs and to opponents overall and it’s often because their offense pushes teams to keep up, which was part of Stafford’s Week 6 problem. Expecting a higher pass volume this week makes the very affordable Stafford and his WR1 an easy pairing. Adding Swift might not seem contrarian based on last week’s results, but his volume is still not where I would consider it trustworthy given that Adrian Peterson is still lurking in this backfield. Considering his salary has also risen, Swift is a risk/reward play in the stack.
New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina: Alvin Kamara, Latavius Murray, Teddy Bridgewater, Robby Anderson
The Saints are pretty big home favorites in this division rivalry game. I fully expect Alvin Kamara to be the most popular RB of the week, but most people won’t pair him with Murray, who is one of my favorite bargain plays. I expect a huge effort from the Saints ground game in one of the league’s softest rushing matchups. Murray is averaging more than 10 carries per game and is often used in the red zone. Both backs have a chance to smash in this game, while I expect Drew Brees and Michael Thomas (especially with his new hamstring injury) to be quieter on the fantasy front.
New Orleans is quietly not as tough a matchup as they once were. Joining Jacksonville and others in the 30-points per game allowed club, and ranking fourth in fantasy points allowed to QBs this season, you can pass on the Saints. Bridgewater has had his ups and downs this season, with a 6:5 TD:INT ratio, so rostering him as your DFS QB is not for the faint of heart. His worst games have come in his worst matchups (e.g. Tampa Bay, Chicago and the Chargers), so I’m optimistic that we see one of his best efforts of the season in this one. If Bridgewater has a good game, there’s a good chance Robby Anderson is on the receiving end of it. Anderson has only a slight edge over D.J. Moore in targets, but in terms of reliability, Anderson’s 78 percent catch rate blows Moore’s 56 percent catch rate out of the water. Both have room to improve in the touchdown department, hopefully starting this Sunday.
Mini-Stacks of the week:
Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams at Houston
Look for this to be the bounce-back game of the week, as Rodgers and Adams will look to shake off last Sunday’s embarrassing loss to the Buccaneers. Adams caught only six of his 10 targets for 61 yards in the loss, and Rodgers threw two picks along with only 160 yards. I am tempted to say mini-stack Rodgers and Aaron Jones, who scored the Packers’ lone touchdown in Week 6 and is fantasy’s overall RB5 (despite playing only five games). Houston is such a fantasy-friendly matchup that it does seem hard to go wrong with the star Packers trio.
Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill at Denver
The Chiefs can always (almost always) find a spot in this article, so routine are they. Mahomes and Hill are my favorite pair against a Denver defense that looked pretty good against Cam Newton and the Patriots in Week 6. The Chiefs are the biggest favorite of the week despite that, and I expect the points to come through the air. The Broncos have been effective at stopping the run, so I’m avoiding the LeVeon Bell/Clyde Edwards-Helaire situation entirely this weekend. I have nothing against Travis Kelce, but think Hill’s speed will be more valuable here than Kelce’s toughness at the point of catch. Also, while Kelce tops the TE salary charts, Hill is a real bargain on DraftKings ($6400) and Yahoo ($29).
