Posted Thursday and updated Friday evening, “The Fantasy Blueprint” will get you the stats and information that actually matter for fantasy football, and it will be produced in a way that doesn’t waste our time. If you don’t know what “Fantasy Usage” is, read this. If you want my best bets, they’ll be at the top on Saturday. If you need live Vegas odds, go here. If you simply just want my weekly rankings, subscribe here for $3.99 per month and use promo code WINKS10 for 10% off. If you have other questions, reach out on Twitter (@HaydenWinks).
Best Bets of Week 7
Visit our live odds page. My all-time record: 62-45-3 (58%).
Bengals (+3.5) vs. Browns - CLE without Hooper, Teller, plus Baker, Landry hobbled.
Panthers (+7) vs. Saints - CAR is well coached. No Thomas, Sanders limits offense to YAC.
Chiefs vs. Broncos over 44.5 - DEN finally healthy. Mahomes should never be 44.5 o/u.
Cardinals vs. Seahawks over 55.0 - ARI 2nd in pace, SEA most passes allowed.
Bears vs. Rams under 45.0 - Slow-paced, run-heavy teams vs. good pass defenses.
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Please read this: You’ll see a new chart for each team below called “Fantasy Usage By Week”. If there’s a single thing you should pay attention to in here, it should be this because usage is what truly matters and my usage model does a good job of summarizing how valuable each player’s usage is. The metric holds predictive power for upcoming weeks. Use it for tie breakers. Use it as your home base. It’s what I do. I think you should too.
1. Packers (30.5 points, -3.5 spread) @ HOU
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Quick Notes |
Fantasy Rank: 9, Team Pass Attempts: 15, Rush Att: 11 | |
HOU allows 2nd-most carries. Only expecting Dillon for min snaps. | |
TE14 Robert Tonyan | TD threat, but TE2 usage with Adams. HOU missing top LB. |
32.1 & 14.3 xFPs in two healthy games. HOU 24th vs. WRs. | |
18.7 aDOT means boom-bust. Faces a slow (4.50 forty) CB. WR5. |
Team Overview
I’m willing to mostly throw out the Packers’ Week 6 game in Tampa Bay, as I think the Bucs have the best or second best defense in the NFL. The Texans might be in the bottom-three. Aaron Rodgers should light up the No. 28 passing EPA defense with 10-plus targets to Davante Adams, who will be shadowed by beatable CB Bradley Roby. Adams should be one of a small handful of receivers with a 30% or higher target share moving forward. Adams’ return is bad news for Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Robert Tonyan. MVS only offers big-play potential as a WR5 dart throw, although his odds of hitting deep are improved against a slow corner. Tonyan has been on the injury report and likely sees his fantasy usage drop from TE1 levels to the TE2 range with Adams hogging targets. Tonyan is on the TE1/2 borderline as a player with a high touchdown production in a decent matchup with Houston LB Benardrick McKinney on injured reserve. ... The Packers are projected for the most points of the week (30.5). That’s obviously great news for Aaron Jones and his status as a top-five fantasy back. The Texans have allowed the second-most carries per game (29.8) on defense, are 31st in rushing EPA defense, and are 30th against fantasy running backs.
Updated Friday: After suffering a calf injury Thursday, Aaron Jones appears to be on the wrong side of questionable for Week 7. The Packers have historically been cautious with injuries (most recently with Davante Adams). I expect him to miss. If that happens, Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon would combine for a high-ceiling committee. Dillon has only played minimal snaps, all in garbage time and as a pure runner. I’d bet against him being anything more than the short-yardage back and a season-long RB3. Meanwhile, Williams could be in line for 70% snaps and a 15-20 touch workload. He’s much better on passing downs and is at least somewhat trusted by Aaron Rodgers. He has high-end RB2 value as an upside play. Remember the Texans have allowed the second-most carries per game (29.8) on defense, are 31st in rushing EPA defense, and 30th against fantasy running backs. ... The Packers will be without starting CB Kevin King and starting S Darnell Savage. Wheels up on this game.
Fantasy Rankings
Tonyan is my TE9 this week. Subscribe to Rotoworld EDGE+ here to unlock the rest of my personal weekly positional rankings (posted Wednesday) for only $3.99 per month. Use promo code: WINKS10 for 10% off.
2. Seahawks (29.75, -3.5) @ ARI
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Quick Notes |
Fantasy Rank: 1, Team Pass Attempts: 20, Team Carries: 26 | |
RB16 Chris Carson | RB1/2 usage on career-high receiving. ARI 21st vs. RBs. RB1. |
TE16 Greg Olsen | Old but TE2 usage in elite offense. SEA 2nd in proj. points (29.75). |
WR8 DK Metcalf | Air yards leader in last 4 weeks. Boom-bust WR1 with huge ceiling. |
WR27 Tyler Lockett | 23% target share in last 4. High-ceiling WR2 on career 9.9 YPT. |
Team Overview
The QB1 on the season despite being 20th in pass attempts per game, Russell Wilson enters a potential ceiling contest with the Cardinals Offense playing at the second-fastest pace. Wilson is likely to throw more than normal, setting up DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett for top-15 receiver days. Metcalf’s target share is up, but Lockett is the preferred option underneath and should rebound after slow weeks. Metcalf offers the higher ceiling as the primary deep threat. He’s averaging the most air yards of all players over the last four weeks. Stud. ... Chris Carson has graduated into the RB1 ranks while pacing for career-highs in receptions per game (4.2), all while handling 78% of the inside-the-10 carries. The Cardinals, who are without All-Pro edge Chandler Jones, are 21st against fantasy running backs. The Seahawks are projected for the second-most points of the week (29.75).
3. Saints (29.25, -7.5) vs. CAR
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Quick Notes |
Fantasy Rank: 19, Team Pass Attempts: 12, Team Carries: 11 | |
RB2 Alvin Kamara | The No. 1 overall asset, but MT returning lowers rec. projection. |
RB42 Latavius Murray | Mostly high-end insurance RB only, but CAR is 29th vs. RBs. |
TE25 Jared Cook | Becomes even more TD-reliant with MT back. No-floor TE2. |
No Michael Thomas. No Emmanuel Sanders. |
Team Overview
The QB19 per game, Drew Brees should be left outside of the top-15 despite a good matchup on paper with Michael Thomas (hamstring) and Emmanuel Sanders (COVID-19 list) out. The offense will be predicated on Alvin Kamara’s ability to create between the tackles and after the catch. No player in the 2020 season will have the projected workload Kamara has this week. He’s arguably a lock in DFS even at high ownership. Latavius Murray (and to a lesser degree failed gadget experiment Taysom Hill) should be more involved as ancillary pieces with 5-12 touch projections. With Carolina 29th against fantasy backs, Murray has RB3 appeal. The passing game will be on Jared Cook and Tre’Quan Smith’s shoulders when the ball isn’t going to Kamara. Cook had TE2 usage in past weeks but can be projected for TE1 usage this week. Smith has big-play potential and will be projected for the biggest workload of his career as the clear-cut best receiver left with even Bennie Fowler headed to injured reserve. He’s a volume-based WR3.
4. Bills (29.25, -13.5) @ NYJ
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Quick Notes |
Josh Allen | Fantasy Rank: 4, Team Pass Attempts: 8, Team Carries: 25 |
RB27 Devin Singletary | Touch Shares: Trailing (11%), Leading (37%). NYJ 26th vs. RBs. |
WR11 Stefon Diggs | Talent + 9.3 targets P/G = WR1/2. NYJ 30th in pass EPA defense. |
WR48 Cole Beasley | WR4/5 usage as low-aDOT (8.0) WR. NYJ slot CB Poole is good. |
WR80 Gabriel Davis | Brown backup & No. 4 WR in BUF. |
Team Overview
The Bills are quietly one of the most banged-up teams in the NFL. This week, they’re missing WR John Brown, TE Dawson Knox, and starting LT Cody Gord on offense. It’s arguably worse on defense. CB Levi Wallace is on injured reserve, CB Josh Norman is out, CB Tre’Davious White (questionable) didn’t practice Friday, CB Cam Lewis was limited all week, LB Tyrel Dodson is out, and underrated stud LB Matt Milano (questionable) was limited all week. This could allow the Jets to compete to some degree, which makes Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs great plays in all formats. Cole Beasley will have WR2/3 volume, although he does face the toughest CB matchup against slot CB Brian Poole. Even Gabriel Davis has WR4 potential as a deep threat and red zone target now that he’ll be a near every down player. … Devin Singletary is game-script dependent. His touch share goes from 11% while trailing to 37% while leading, something we obviously expect to happen this week. Singletary still will lose goal-line opportunities to Allen and possibly Zack Moss, so he’s only on the RB2/3 border.
5. Falcons (29.25, -2) vs. DET
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Quick Notes |
Fantasy Rank: 13, Team Pass Attempts: 3, Team Carries: 14 | |
RB19 Todd Gurley | RB2 usage. ATL offense is improving. DET last in rush EPA defense. |
TE20 Hayden Hurst | Top-5 in TE routes, but 13% target share. TE1/2 by default. |
WR2 Julio Jones | Balled out, looked healthy in Week 6. DET 26th vs. WRs. Elite WR1. |
WR12 Calvin Ridley | Top-3 WR days are over but still a WR1. Faces rookie CB Okudah. |
WR75 Russell Gage | Distant No. 3 option. Plus game environment as a PPR WR4/5. |
Team Overview
Third in pass attempts per game, the Falcons re-enter top-five passing potential with Julio Jones (hamstring) appearing at near full-health last week. Matt Ryan has been a top-eight quarterback in all games with Julio and outside of the top-20 without him. Ryan’s floor and ceiling are heightened by the Lions’ No. 24 defense against fantasy quarterbacks and Vegas’ 29.25-point team total (5th on the week). Julio immediately goes back into top-five WR rankings, albeit with a lower floor due to re-injury risk, but I’m not too nervous for Calvin Ridley’s status inside top-12 WR rankings. This week, in particular, Ridley faces struggling first-round CB Jeffery Okudah, who is still only 21 years old. Even ancillary pieces like Hayden Hurst and Russell Gage are in play due to matchup. Hurst remains top-five in tight end routes despite average production. Julio’s presence could actually be spun as a positive with softer coverages opening over the middle and down the seam. There’s no reason to believe the Lions’ No. 2 defense against tight ends is legit, by the way. ... Todd Gurley’s red zone chances are enhanced by Julio’s return and the Lions’ dead last ranking in rushing EPA defense. Gurley has RB2 volume and a light’s out matchup with touchdown potential. He can still run in a straight-line. Cutting is his issue.
Updated Friday: Lions CB Desmond Trufant is out. Good luck Detroit.
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6. Chiefs (28.5, -10) @ DEN
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Quick Notes |
Fantasy Rank: 3, Team Pass Attempts: 9, Team Carries: 9 | |
Not convinced Bell sees a big role until he learns offense. RB1/2. | |
RB43 Le’Veon Bell | Not signed to start. May only know a small portion of KC plays. RB3. |
TE2 Travis Kelce | Top-10 overall fantasy asset. 10.4+ PPR in 7-straight vs. DEN. |
WR50 Tyreek Hill | More 2-high safeties means fewer Tyreek deep shots. WR1/2. |
WR94 Mecole Hardman | “Mecole Handcuff”. A gadget player only. 38% Week 6 route rate. |
Team Overview
Defenses are playing Kansas City differently. Patrick Mahomes destroys under pressure as the league’s best blitz-beating passer. That’s led to fewer pass rushers and more defensive backs. Mahomes can obviously still beat zone and 2-high safety looks (Kansas City is 2nd in passing EPA), but it does make completing deep balls to Tyreek Hill a bigger challenge. Hill’s weekly upside is still elite and his touchdown projection keeps him in the top-12 receiver mix, but his production may be more touch-and-go. While the scheme change is bad for Hill, it’s been okay for Travis Kelce, who must be treated as a top-10 fantasy asset in season-long leagues. He’ll crush even the No. 4 tight end in points this year. Kelce has averaged 21.4 PPR points and 105 yards per game against Denver since 2016. Elite. … The deeper coverage looks have been most fruitful for the run game. Kansas City is now 9th in carries per game, setting up Clyde Edwards-Helaire for at least one more game as a top-12 fantasy quarterback. Coach Andy Reid said the team will “see what Le’Veon Bell is comfortable with” before determining his availability for Week 7 and blatantly told reporters that Bell wasn’t signed to be the starter. I only expect Bell to have a minimal Week 7 role. I’d set CEH’s touch projection at 19.5.
Updated Friday: Broncos LB Jeremiah Attaochu is out. This defense is simply really hurt.
Updated Saturday: Current weather projections include snow and 20-degree temperatures. It’s something to factor in for the passing game in particular, although I wouldn’t overreact for season-long formats. Here’s some DFS data from one of the legends Jonathan Bales:
As wind speed increases, QB performance declines (but so does DFS ownership, as people know strong winds hurt the passing game). As temperature decreases, QB performance declines (a lot), yet DFS ownership actually increases substantially. Why? pic.twitter.com/wBO6KMcZaW
— Jonathan Bales (@BalesFootball) September 2, 2020
7. Chargers (28.25, -7.5) vs. JAX
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Quick Notes |
Fantasy Rank: 7, Team Pass Attempts: 18, Team Carries: 4 | |
RB36 Justin Jackson | Started, played over JK. JAX allows 3rd-most carries. Top-25 RB. |
RB47 Joshua Kelley | No. 2 as a short-yardage grinder behind JJ. RB3/4 in plus script. |
TE15 Hunter Henry | TE1/2 usage, 18% targets with Herbert. JAX 25th vs. TEs. TE1. |
WR4 Keenan Allen | WR1 usage when back is healthy. Slot CB Herndon has struggled. |
WR31 Mike Williams | 18.1 aDOT. Unlike Phil, Herbert can throw deep. Boom-bust WR3. |
Team Overview
Ex-running backs coach Anthony Lynn is costing the Chargers games and fantasy points by ranking dead last in neutral pass rate, meaning they pass the ball on only 42% of plays in neutral situations. With Justin Herbert showcasing high-end upside and with the offensive line unable to run block, why not sling the ball around to Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Hunter Henry? The Chargers’ passing game has tons of upside with their 28.25-point team total against the league’s worst passing EPA defense. Herbert, who is the QB7 per game, is a top-10 option, while Allen has top-12 upside after dominating targets prior to his back injury. He faces one of the worst slot corners this week, too. Williams’ fit in the offense is clearer with a quarterback actually able to throw the ball downfield, and his 50/50 ball ability makes him an easier-to-stomach WR3. … The Jaguars have allowed the third-most carries per game (28.0) on defense, so there’s room for at least one of the two Chargers’ running backs to operate. Justin Jackson is the best bet for RB2/3 production after finishing with RB2 usage on 59% Week 5 snaps. Joshua Kelley’s upside is mostly tied to being the bigger back and best bet for goal-line carries, but I think he’s a forgettable talent in other situations.
Updated Friday: Stud LB Myles Jack and S Jarrod Wilson are out for the Jaguars.
8. Bucs (28.0, -3) @ LV
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Quick Notes |
Fantasy Rank: 14, Team Pass Attempts: 7, Team Carries: 22 | |
RB7 Ronald Jones | All 25 touches on 1st/2nd down. RB2 while Lenny (ankle) is iffy. |
RB44 Leonard Fournette | Ankle injury should be improving now, but RoJo is running well. |
TE9 Rob Gronkowski | TE1/2 usage since OJ injury. Still slow, but red zone upside. TE1/2. |
WR32 Chris Godwin | Week 6 targets: CG (8), ME (2). LV slot CB Joyner is bad. WR2. |
WR39 Mike Evans | WR3 usage while playing on bum ankle. Target competition. WR2. |
Team Overview
A slower offensive pace (21st) and a lower average depth of target (8.9) has capped the firepower of the Bucs’ offense for fantasy purposes, at least compared to 2019 with Jameis (10.5 aDOT last year). Tom Brady is still playing well (QB14 per game) and projects better as Chris Godwin (hamstring) and Mike Evans (ankle) move past early-season injuries. Neither are great bets for top-10 usage and production right now but belong in WR2 rankings on talent alone. The Raiders, who are 20th in passing EPA defense, are without their first-round corner and are potentially without S Jonathan Abrams (COVID-19 list). No Abrams would solidify Rob Gronkowski’s emergence into top-12 tight end rankings after two-straight TE1 usage games post O.J. Howard (Achilles). I’m biased against old tight ends, so I remain one foot in, one foot out on Gronk. … Leonard Fournette (ankle) remains a wait-and-see bench hold while Ronald Jones handles almost all early-down work. All 25 of his touches were on first- or second-down last week. Jones is running his ass off between the tackles as a borderline RB1/2. His upside can be enhanced if the Raiders’ entire offensive line is ruled out on the other side of the ball. Go pick up the Bucs at -4 everywhere you can. Vegas is 29th in rushing EPA defense.
9. Lions (27.25, +2) @ ATL
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Quick Notes |
Fantasy Rank: 20, Team Pass Attempts: 22, Team Carries: 16 | |
RB30 Adrian Peterson | Doubt AP holds RB3 value with Swift. ATL is a pass funnel. |
RB34 D’Andre Swift | Pass-down RB with bellcow upside. RB2/3 in plus game script. |
TE7 T.J. Hockenson | 5.3 targets P/G over the last 4 games is 2nd on the team. TE1. |
WR26 Kenny Golladay | WR2 usage. Good game environment. CB Sheffield is BBQ chicken. |
WR91 Marvin Jones | Air yards P/G in last 4: Jones (39), Marvin Hall (44). No-floor WR4/5. |
WR99 Danny Amendola | Not involved, but the Falcons are 5th in pass attempts allowed. |
Team Overview
Matthew Stafford’s averaged depth of target has increased with Kenny Golladay back, but it’s still down 1.4 yards (10.7 to 9.3) compared to last year when the offense was pacing for 5,000 passing yards. Perhaps the Lions want to protect Stafford’s back. Either way, I’m treating Week 7 as a make-it or break-it week for Stafford’s top-15 outlook. He’s the QB20 per game right now and faces the No. 32 defense against fantasy quarterbacks. Vegas believes in a passing rebound with Detroit projected for 27.25 points (9th on the week). Golladay will cook up PFF’s lowest-graded CB Kendall Sheffield as an upside WR1/2, especially with the Falcons having allowed the fifth-most pass attempts per game (41.8) on defense. Maybe that’s enough for Marvin Jones to get going. He has fewer air yards per game (39) than Marvin Hall (44) over the last four weeks. He’s a good tournament option in DFS and a trust-the-process WR4 in season-long formats. Jones was pacing for WR2 production with Stafford in 2019. … Because their pass defense is so awful, the Falcons have allowed the fourth-fewest carries per game (21.8) on defense. This doesn’t project for an Adrian Peterson game on paper with Detroit sitting as 2-point road dogs, especially following D’Andre Swift’s Week 6 breakout. Swift has the passing-down role locked but could begin eating into early-down work after Detroit got him going post their Week 5 bye. Swift could pay off as a top-25 back this week even if he splits early-down work with AP because the Falcons are second in receptions and receiving yards to opposing running backs. One more strong game on the ground could vault Swift into weekly top-20 consideration as soon as Week 8.
10. Texans (27.0, +3.5) vs. GB
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Quick Notes |
Fantasy Rank: 8, Team Pass Attempts: 23, Team Carries: 31 | |
RB13 David Johnson | More Week 6 routes (32) than expected. GB last vs. RBs. RB2. |
RB52 Duke Johnson | Week 6 routes: David (32), Duke (11). Insurance only. |
TE26 Darren Fells | xFPs P/G: With Akins (8.1), w/out (4.4). Potential TE2 streamer. |
WR22 Will Fuller | 113 air yards P/G (6th) in last 4 weeks. Faces CB Alexander. WR2. |
WR34 Brandin Cooks | WR3 usage in last 4 after slow start. Easiest CB matchup. WR3. |
WR65 Randall Cobb | 6.9 aDOT as slot receiver. Low-upside PPR WR5. |
Team Overview
Despite facing the Chiefs, Ravens, and Steelers early, Deshaun Watson is the QB8 per game and playing elite football with more play action post Bill O’Brien. The entire Texans passing offense has shootout potential with the Packers CB Kevin King and S Darnell Savage doubtful to play. It’s unclear if elite CB Jaire Alexander will match up with Will Fuller or Brandin Cooks, but the other will have an elite ceiling and both are fast enough to beat Alexander for big plays. I won’t be shying away from Watson, Fuller, Cooks, or TE Darren Fells with Jordan Akins (ankle) unable to practice all week. … David Johnson’s passing-game role was bigger than expected last week with Duke Johnson only running 11 routes. The Packers historically have dared teams to run against them (25th in rushing EPA defense) which has made them the easiest defense against fantasy running backs this season. With RB13 fantasy usage over the last four games, Johnson can safely be rostered as an upside RB2.
11. Browns (27.0, -3.5) @ CIN
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Quick Notes |
Fantasy Rank: 30, Team Pass Attempts: 30, Team Carries: 3 | |
RB21 Kareem Hunt | Rebound candidate post-PIT game. 3-down role is secure. RB1. |
Austin Hooper is out. Bryant + Njoku to start in 2-TE sets. | |
WR28 Odell Beckham | Inconsistent but strong WR3 usage. Baker flat out stinks. WR2/3. |
WR57 Jarvis Landry | Hobbled. 22% target share in OFF that’s 30th in passes. WR4/5. |
Team Overview
Baker Mayfield is a bad NFL starter and even worse fantasy quarterback. He’s the QB30 per game and shouldn’t be ranked any higher than around QB20 despite a reasonable team total (27.0 points) and plus matchup, especially with TE Austin Hooper out and Jarvis Landry dealing with hip, knee, and rib injuries. Landry doesn’t belong in the WR3 conversation after seeing WR57 fantasy usage in the last four weeks. Odell Beckham and Kareem Hunt are the only 10 or 12-team viable options in Cleveland. Odell’s individual matchup is improved with CB William Jackson out and he’s popped for 15+ expected PPR point games in 3-of-6. He’s an upside WR2/3. … Kareem Hunt is a big-time bounce back candidate in a far easier matchup compared to the Steelers, who are allowing the least carries in the league. The Bengals, meanwhile, are 20th in rushing EPA defense and will be without high-end run-stuffing DT D.J. Reader. As 3.5-point favorites, Hunt is a top-five back with tons of potential. The loss of OG Wyatt Teller isn’t as big of a deal against a defensive line that’s 28th in adjusted sack rate. Get him in DFS.
12. Steelers (26.5, -1.5) @ TEN
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Quick Notes |
Fantasy Rank: 18, Team Pass Attempts: 25, Team Carries: 5 | |
RB12 James Conner | RB1/2 usage as PIT bellcow. TEN 24th in rush EPA defense. |
TE13 Eric Ebron | TE1/2 usage as PIT red zone option. TEN 26th vs. TEs. TD or bust. |
WR24 Chase Claypool | Best PIT WR. Had WR2/3 usage without DJ. Boom-bust WR3. |
Average talent. WR1/2 usage before Claypool popped. WR3/4. | |
WR72 JuJu Smith-Schuster | PIT rushing more + career-low aDOT = WR4/5 outlook. Sad! |
WR55 James Washington | Goes to bench when Diontae returns. Big-play WR5 if DJ out. |
Team Overview
Ben Roethlisberger is only 25th in pass attempts per game and his average depth of target is at career-low levels as the team attempts to keep him healthy. In close games, that’ll go out the window and even if he’s limited in volume, Roethlisberger has a mid-range QB1 ceiling given the talent around him. That could be the case in an intriguing AFC matchup against a defense that’s 28th against fantasy quarterbacks because they can’t rush the passer (31st in adjusted sack rate). Roethlisberg should put up numbers. “To who?” is the question. Sometimes in this job, I have to say things I could very-well regret. Here’s one of them. Chase Claypool is by far the best Steelers receiver. He’s easily the most athletic and he’s the one seeing touches downfield, behind the line of scrimmage, from the slot, and in the red zone. His ceiling is highest, although I still only have him on the WR2/3 border because of total volume concerns. It’s possible that Claypool rotates with vertical-threat James Washington (likely the No. 4) and Diontae Johnson, who is healthy now. Johnson’s ceiling is the lowest as a third-round, undersized, below-average athlete with a 5.7 YPT average, but he did see a 31% target share in Weeks 1-2 before Claypool’s emergence. I simply think things have changed for Diontae, making him a boom-bust flex play only until there’s more clarity. JuJu Smith-Schuster hasn’t produced and is actually outside the top-100 receivers in air yards per game in the last four weeks. His aDOT is at career-low levels, and it’s hard to see 8+ targets in non-shootouts with more target competition. Like Johnson, JuJu is merely a boom-bust flex right now.
13. Cardinals (26.25, +3.5) vs. SEA
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Quick Notes |
Fantasy Rank: 2, Team Pass Attempts: 19, Team Carries: 7 | |
RB24 Kenyan Drake | Big Week 6 vs. bad DEF, but only 1.0 target P/G. RB2 in iffy script. |
RB38 Chase Edmonds | 4.0 targets P/G, but insurance only, even in decent game script. |
WR19 DeAndre Hopkins (Q) | Improving on ankle. SEA has most pass attempts allowed. WR1. |
WR60 Christian Kirk | 15% target share. 38% targets 20+ air yards. SEA 32nd vs. WRs. |
WR83 Larry Fitzgerald | Laughable 5.6 aDOT & career-low 5.0 YPT. Simply bad. |
WR92 Andy Isabella | 16.7 aDOT as situational deep target. Kingsbury, Please start him. |
Team Overview
The Cardinals are obvious candidates to pass the ball more than usual. They’re 3.5-point dogs against the defense that’s allowed the most pass attempts per game (50.4) on defense. Kyler Murray should have better success as a passer (14th in passing EPA) here with S Jamal Adams and other Seattle starters still sidelined. Murray’s position-leading rushing (61.7 yards per game) adds to his top-four fantasy QB intrigue. Murray to DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk stacks are well-within play in DFS tournaments with Seattle dead last against fantasy receivers. Hopkins’ ankle issue should be improving now, and we saw Kirk’s upside as the primary deep threat (15.5 aDOT) in Arizona. 38% of his targets are 20 or more air yards downfield. Kirk needs one of those to hit to pay off as a WR3/flex. … After being called out by his own mother, Kenyan Drake rebounded in ideal game script against a bad defense in Week 6. Drake is still not involved as a receiver (1.0 targets per game in the last four) and looks replaceable between the tackles on tape, but he’s a candidate for 15-plus touches as the primary rusher and goal-line back. Drake is an RB2, while Chase Edmonds rotates in on third downs as a high-end insurance back in season-long.
14. Rams (25.25, -5.5) vs. CHI
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Quick Notes |
Fantasy Rank: 16, Team Pass Attempts: 28, Team Carries: 6 | |
RB18 Darrell Henderson | All 14 Week 6 touches on 1st/2nd down. Pure runner. RB2/3. |
RB41 Malcolm Brown | McVay called him the passing-down back. Slow RB3/4. |
WR23 Cooper Kupp | WR2/3 usage. Career-low 8.3 YPT. CHI 3rd vs. WRs. WR3. |
WR33 Robert Woods | WR3 usage on 24% target share. Tough matchup. WR3. |
TE35+ Tyler Higbee (Q) | 4th in yards per route run, but 29th in TE routes. No-floor TE2. |
Team Overview
Still conservative with a low neutral pass rate and low average depth of target, Jared Goff is expected for a floor game against the No. 6 passing EPA defense. For the first time this season, the Rams’ offensive line faces a relentless pass rush, something Goff historically struggles against. It’s worth knocking Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods a point or two in projections, making them more WR3s than WR2s. Tyler Higbee (hand) is questionable to play. He’s no longer TE1 viable in 12-team leagues, especially with an injury putting his status up in the air. ... Darrell Henderson is expected to play through an injury as a low-floor RB2 with 15-20 touch potential in what should be a slug fest. Malcolm Brown remains the passing-down back while Cam Akers hangs out on the sideline as a 21-year-old inexperienced rookie. The latter two aren’t fantasy viable while Henderson starts. The Bears are 9th against fantasy backs this season.
15. Titans (25.0, +1.5) vs. PIT
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Quick Notes |
Fantasy Rank: 5, Team Pass Attempts: 16, Team Carries: 2 | |
RB4 Derrick Henry | Not playing 3rd downs. PIT allows fewest carries. Boom-bust RB1. |
TE4 Jonnu Smith | Athlete. Had TE1 usage, but AJB back. PIT 7th vs. TEs. |
WR14 A.J. Brown | Star player. WR1/2 usage enhanced by wild games. WR2 outlook. |
WR36 Adam Humphries | Had WR4 usage, but now Davis returns from COVID list. |
WR63 Corey Davis | Hasn’t been WR4/5 viable with AJB. PIT 3rd in pass EPA defense. |
Team Overview
Efficiency king Ryan Tannehill is leading the NFL in adjusted yards per attempt by a country mile since 2019, but Week 7 will be his toughest challenge to date. Already without his RT from last year, Tannehill will be missing his starting LT Taylor Lewan (ACL) and faces the No. 1 defense in adjusted sack rate. The Steelers blitz a lot and play ball control on offense, limiting opposing offenses to the fourth-fewest plays per game (57.6) overall. Tannehill will have to be sharp to be a top-10 fantasy quarterback, but he’s earned a QB1/2 border ranking with elite play even in tough spots. A.J. Brown is back to dominating opposing corners as a real-life top-15 receiver following a knee bruise, but his target projection is always lower than other fantasy WR2s, especially with Corey Davis, Adam Humphries, and Jonnu Smith all in the lineup for the first time since Week 1. Of the three secondary targets, Smith easily deserves the most fantasy attention after showcasing TE4 overall fantasy usage over the last four weeks. With former speedy former first-round LB Devin Bush out, Smith’s matchup improves as a locked-in TE1 with game-breaking athleticism. … Fresh off a slate-altering Week 6, Derrick Henry faces the most difficult matchup for running backs. The Steelers are not only 2nd in rushing EPA defense but also allowing the fewest carries per game (18.0) in the NFL. Henry still projects for 20-plus touches as a rare two-down workhorse, so he belongs inside the top-10 no matter what even if his floor and ceiling are compromised.
16. Raiders (25.0, +3) vs. TB
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Quick Notes |
Fantasy Rank: 15, Team Pass Attempts: 13, Team Carries: 10 | |
RB14 Josh Jacobs | Touch share: Trailing (21%), leading (50%). TB DEF owns the run. |
TE3 Darren Waller | 22% target share. Faced a tough schedule. My No. 3 TE. |
NA Henry Ruggs | Changes offense, but faces PFF’s No. 1 CB Dean. Volatile WR4. |
WR52 Hunter Renfrow | Likely No. 3 target behind Waller, Ruggs. TB DEF: 2nd-fewest plays. |
Team Overview
The Raiders offensive line is expected to play, but they haven’t practiced all week and will be without their best player in RT Trent Brown (COVID-19). It’s poor timing with the Bucs No. 2 passing EPA defense coming to Vegas. Luckily for Derek Carr and his QB2 chances (currently the QB15 per game), Henry Ruggs is healthy and changes the entire offense by forcing the defense to respect the deep ball. Carr also seems more likely to throw deep, too. It’s still an offense to bet against with the Bucs playing like arguably the best unit in the NFL. Darren Waller is the best asset of the week but even he’s facing a top-10 defense against his position. His volume and talent keep him locked into top-3 tight end rankings, however. ... Josh Jacobs is playing more passing downs, but he remains one of the most game-script sensitive backs in the NFL. His touch share drops for 50% while leading to 21% while trailing. The Bucs, of course, are No. 1 in rushing EPA defense and are allowing the second-fewest carries per game. Jacobs would be close to the RB2 range if not for injuries at the position.
17. Eagles (24.75, -4.5) vs. NYG
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Quick Notes |
Fantasy Rank: 12, Team Pass Attempts: 6, Team Carries: 27 | |
NA Boston Scott | Busted as Miles’ Week 1 fill-in. NYG 23rd vs. RBs. Low-floor RB2/3. |
Apparently nicknamed “Dick Rod”. Default starter as TE2 streamer. | |
WR13 Travis Fulgham | ‘X WR’ for PHI, so faces stud CB Bradberry. WR2/3 if no DJ, AJ, JR. |
NA DeSean Jackson (Q) | Untrustworthy on 34-year-old hammy. Dodges top CB. Big-play WR4. |
WR43 Greg Ward | Forgettable low-aDOT (5.5) as slot in 3-WR sets if D-Jax returns. |
Team Overview
Decimated by injuries, Carson Wentz is now without multiple starting offensive linemen and multiple skill-position players, including Jalen Reagor, Miles Sanders, Dallas Goedert, and Zach Ertz. Wentz has upped his rushing production because he’s among the worst passers in the NFL right now. It’s worked for fantasy (QB12 per game). This week, Wentz gets a deep threat back in DeSean Jackson, who will mostly dodge elite CB James Bradberry. He’ll cover Wentz’s new X receiver Travis Fulgham. He has WR1-level volume in two-straight games, but the matchup and Jackson’s return move him back to WR2/3 territory. Greg Ward could only play in 3-receiver sets if Jackson is truly playing a full-complement of snaps. His upside is limited by his low average depth of target (5.5) in the slot. Richard Rodgers will move into a near full-time role as a checkdown option at tight end. That alone makes him TE2 viable. The Eagles’ below-average offensive line puts Boston Scott in no-floor RB2/3 territory, especially with New York stronger in the trenches (15th in rushing EPA defense) compared to the back-seven (25th in passing EPA defense). Scott’s receiving potential makes him more palatable in PPR formats. Corey Clement could eat into Scott’s ground-game workload but is off the radar outside of single-game DFS tournaments.
18. Bengals (23.5, +3.5) vs. CLE
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Quick Notes |
Fantasy Rank: 22, Team Pass Attempts: 2, Team Carries: 19 | |
Joe Mixon is out. Gio has been active. Trayveon should play, too. | |
WR16 Tyler Boyd | 21% targets in pass-heavy OFF. CLE 4th in PaAtt allowed. WR2. |
WR18 Tee Higgins | 112 air yards per game (7th) in the last 4 weeks. Boom-bust WR3. |
WR38 A.J. Green | Inconsistent usage as mad, no-floor WR3. CIN 2nd in passes. |
Team Overview
The Browns have allowed the fourth-most pass attempts per game (42.0) on defense, and the Bengals will be replacing Joe Mixon with pass-first back Giovani Bernard. Joe Burrow is projected to pass 35-50 times this week as a volume-based top-15 fantasy option. He’s been the QB22 per game despite facing some tough opponents. The Browns are 22nd against fantasy quarterbacks despite generating pressure. Picking the right Bengals receiver will be a headache. Steady slot man Tyler Boyd (WR16 fantasy usage) and explosive rookie outside WR Tee Higgins (WR18 fantasy usage) are the best bets, but A.J. Green (WR38 fantasy usage) came alive last week as a boom-bust WR3 play with Burrow’s passing volume through the roof. There’s paths to upside for all three. … Giovani Bernard was paid handsomely by this coaching staff last season and can be projected for 70% snaps with Trayveon Williams and Samaje Perine as depth options who have been inactive this year. Bernard’s passing role gives him some sort of floor, and he’s reached ceilings in spot starts historically.
19. Football Team (23.5, -1) vs. DAL
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Quick Notes |
Fantasy Rank: 29, Team Pass Attempts: 10, Team Carries: 27 | |
RB25 Antonio Gibson | All 14 Week 6 touches on 1st/2nd down. DAL allows most carries. |
RB33 J.D. McKissic | Pass Situation Targets: McKissic (5), Gibson (1). PPR RB3. |
TE21 Logan Thomas | TE2 usage on top-3 TE routes. Iffy situation as a fantasy TE2. |
WR7 Terry McLaurin | 10.3 targets P/G in the last 4. Exits CB gauntlet. Buy-low WR1/2. |
Team Overview
The Cowboys nonexistent defense opens up ceiling opportunities for the core pieces of the Football Team offense. After facing a gauntlet of upper echelon corners in recent weeks, Terry McLaurin finally gets a plus matchup against rookie CB Trevon Diggs. Dallas is 27th versus fantasy receivers, and McLaurin is up to WR7 overall fantasy usage while racking up 10.3 targets per game over his last four. He’s on the WR1/2 borderline here. Logan Thomas finally did something last week but has exited the TE1 conversation with his fantasy usage dipping to TE21 overall over the last four games. The Cowboys getting healthier at linebacker should make them better against tight ends, too. … Antonio Gibson is more interesting this week than he’s been all season despite ceding almost all pass-game work to J.D. McKissic. In fact, all 14 of Gibson’s 14 touches last week were on first- or second-down. This week, Gibson should see at least 14 touches with Dallas allowing the most carries per game (30.7) on defense. High-teen touches and Dallas’ 30th-ranked rushing EPA defense place Gibson on the RB2 radar for the first time all season. Washington’s 23.5-point total could be the highest it will be all season.
Updated Friday: Washington will be without full-time WR Isaiah Wright and No. 4 receiver Antonio Gandy-Golden this week. Jam Terry McLaurin in.
Cowboys Week 7 OL vs. Washington:
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) October 23, 2020
LT Erving (3rd-stringer on 3rd team)
LG Williams (3rd-year avg player)
C Biadsz (backup, 4th-round rookie)
RG McGovern (backup, 84 career snaps)
RT Steele (backup, UDFA rookie)
20. Patriots (23.25, -1.5) vs. SF
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Quick Notes |
Fantasy Rank: 6, Team Pass Attempts: 29, Team Carries: 1 | |
RB20 James White (Q) | Handled all 3rd-down RB touches in Week 6. PPR RB2/3. |
RB28 Rex Burkhead | Splitting 1st/2nd-down role with Harris as low-floor RB3. |
RB58 Damien Harris | 0% of his touches are “High Value”. Empty calorie RB if no goal line. |
WR53 Julian Edelman | 14.0 xFPs per game with Cam, but unhealthy. Boom-bust WR3. |
WR64 N’Keal Harry | 11% target share. Slow feet don’t eat. SF DEF: 5th fewest plays. |
WR66 Damiere Byrd | Cam’s deep threat on WR6 usage. Faces stud CB Verrett. |
Team Overview
This game will be near the bottom in total plays. The Patriots’ run-heavy offense with Cam Newton slows the game down, and the 49ers are 31st in neutral pace, causing them to face the fifth-fewest plays per game (59.3) on defense. Newton’s goal-line rushing keeps him inside QB1 rankings, but this is not a ceiling game on paper for anyone. Julian Edelman doesn’t look healthy and has seen his fantasy usage drop to flex levels in recent weeks. Edelman is the only Patriots receiver on the season-long radar with N’Keal Harry’s goal-line fade projection down with Newton running things in himself and Damiere Byrd sitting at WR66 fantasy usage with CB Jason Verrett waiting for him. … New England’s three-back rotation is bad news for fantasy. James White is, by far, the best bet for RB2/3 production in PPR formats as the clear-cut third-down back. He led the entire team in expected PPR points last week. Damien Harris and Rex Burkhead are splitting the first- and second-down role, but those are low-calorie touches unless it translates into goal-line carries. It’s unclear who would have the role, and it may not matter with Cam being the true goal-line back. Harris is a low-floor RB3 with the Patriots only projected for 23.25 points (20th on the week).
Updated Friday: The 49ers remain very injured on defense. In addition to their injured reserve list, San Francisco will be without S Jimmie Ward, S Jaquiski Tartt, and LB Kwon Alexander.
21. Cowboys (22.5, +1) @ WAS
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Quick Notes |
Fantasy Rank: NA, Team Pass Attempts: 1, Team Carries: 23 | |
RB3 Ezekiel Elliott | 3rd-string LT, 2nd-string RT. Bottom-5 OL. Elite usage as top-5 RB. |
TE17 Dalton Schultz | Doubt Andy supports the No. 5 target. WAS 27th vs. TEs at least. |
WR3 Amari Cooper | Had elite WR1 usage, but more volatile now with Andy. WR1/2. |
WR15 CeeDee Lamb | +10.3 xFPs in all games. Leading NFL in yards from slot. WR2/3. |
WR47 Michael Gallup | 12% target share in last 4. Big-play WR4. Faces WAS top CB Fuller. |
Team Overview
The Cowboys are on their third-string left tackle, backup right tackle, backup center, and likely backup right guard. Dallas’ offensive line went from top-five to bottom-five within seven weeks. It’s putting excess pressure on Andy Dalton, who is a sum of his parts player. He’ll be heavily challenged by the No. 3 defense in adjusted sack rate, making this a potential disaster spot as road dogs. Dalton likely won’t have time for many deep shots to WR4 Michael Gallup, who also catches Washington’s top corner Kyle Fuller, so expect the passing offense to go through Amari Cooper and elite slot receiver CeeDee Lamb. Both deserve to be dinged a half-dozen spots weekly post-Dak Prescott, but remain a quality WR1-WR2 punch. TE Dalton Schultz, who has been below 7.5 expected fantasy points in each of the last two games, could be the biggest loser with Dalton unlikely to support a fifth passing-game option. … Ezekiel Elliott is playing horribly, although that doesn’t matter too much for fantasy. He has RB3 overall fantasy usage still, and the Football Team has allowed the fifth-most carries per game (27.5) on defense because they’re better at rushing the passer than defending the run. With both teams inside the top-five in neutral offensive pace, Zeke remains a top-five fantasy back.
22. Panthers (21.75, +7.5) @ NO
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Quick Notes |
Fantasy Rank: 21, Team Pass Attempts: 17, Team Carries: 14 | |
RB1 Mike Davis | Bellcow in all game scripts. RB1 overall usage in the last 4 weeks. |
WR20 Robby Anderson | Targets P/G in last 4 weeks: Robby (8.5), DJ (6.5). 11.1 YPT. |
WR46 D.J. Moore | Team-high 12.6 aDOT as primary deep-threat. Upside WR3. |
WR56 Curtis Samuel (Q) | 13% target share as a gadget project. NO 7th vs. WRs. |
Team Overview
Teddy Bridgewater has game-managed his way to a QB21 per game start in the Panthers’ balanced offense (17th in pass attempts, 14th in carries), largely predicated to spreading out defenses and getting the ball out quick. The combination of the Panthers’ 21.75-point team total (21st this week) and the Saints’ No. 29 ranking against fantasy quarterbacks keeps Bridgewater in the QB2 mix, especially with Robby Anderson pacing for career highs. Over the last four weeks, Anderson is averaging 8.5 targets on WR2 fantasy usage while D.J. Moore continues operating as the primary deep threat (team-high 12.6 aDOT) on WR3 fantasy usage. Neither are in particularly tough matchups with CB Marshon Lattimore having his worst season so far. … Mike Davis is up to RB1 overall fantasy usage over the last four weeks (read: CMC role). He’s been returning RB1 value, too, because he’s a hard-nosed runner with soft hands. The Saints have the advantage in the trenches on paper, yet rank middle of the pack in rushing EPA defense (16th) and against fantasy running backs (11th). Davis, who is second in “high value touches” per game, is a top-six fantasy option in PPR formats. He’s seeing 3.5 inside-the-10 touches per game right now.
Updated Friday: Curtis Samuel was limited in all three practices and is questionable. Wheels up for Anderson and Moore if he’s out.
23. 49ers (21.75, +1.5) @ NE
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Quick Notes |
Fantasy Rank: 25, Team Pass Attempts: 14, Team Carries: 17 | |
16.2 & 18.0 xFPs without Mostert, but a RB2/3 vs. No. 5 RB DEF. | |
100% of his Week 6 touches in garbage time. Boom-bust RB3. | |
TE1 George Kittle | Value as a top-10 fantasy asset. NE allowing fewest pass attempts. |
WR42 Deebo Samuel | 12.5 & 10.0 xFPs in two healthy games. Faces CB Jackson. WR4. |
WR37 Brandon Aiyuk | Only 9.8 & 7.0 xFPs with Deebo back. NE fewest passes allowed. |
Team Overview
A slow-paced game awaits Jimmy Garoppolo. The Niners are 31st in neutral pace, and the Patriots, who have allowed the fewest pass attempts per game (30.2) on defense, play slower with Cam Newton healthy. This, paired with his inconsistent play, pushes Garoppolo towards the QB2/3 border and makes the 49ers’ receivers iffy WR3/flex plays. Deebo Samuel has wr42 fantasy usage in his two healthy games, while Brandon Aiyuk has posted 9.8 and 7.0 expected fantasy points since Deebo’s return. George Kittle’s dominance and the 49ers’ 49% neutral pass rate make targets hard to come by. Between the two, give me Deebo. … No Raheem Mostert means early-down touches are up for grabs. Last time he missed, Jerick McKinnon stepped into a three-down role as a high-end PPR RB2. I’m less convinced that it repeats with the Niners wisely looking to limit McKinnon’s total touches coming off multiple years of injuries. McKinnon still vaults into RB2/3 consideration, but springy rookie JaMycal Hasty could sneak into 8-12 touches as a committee member after showing well in garbage time in Week 6. The Patriots’ No. 5 defense against fantasy backs further complicates their outlooks. McKinnon will be ranked a few spots higher than Hasty in my rankings, although things will change if Jeff Wilson (calf) is healthy.
Updated Friday: Stud LT Trent Williams and RB Jeff Wilson are both questionable. Both of them were limited in practice all week, making them truly game-time decisions.
24. Jaguars (20.75, +7.5) @ LAC
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Quick Notes |
Fantasy Rank: 17, Team Pass Attempts: 4, Team Carries: 32 | |
RB17 James Robinson | Touch share: Trailing (24%), leading (40%). LAC: 3rd fewest carries. |
WR6 D.J. Chark | 113 air yards per game (5th) in last 4 weeks. Upside WR2/3. |
WR41 Laviska Shenault | Emerging WR4 usage in gadget role. Bench hold as stud athlete. |
WR44 Keelan Cole | Outlier 184 air yards in Week 6. Faces stud CB King. WR5. |
Team Overview
With more tape out there to study, Gardner Minshew is beginning to look like a below-average athlete and former sixth-round pick. Vegas only projects Jacksonville for 20.75 points (24th on the week), and the Chargers are expected to get stud DE Melvin Ingram back from injury. Minshew will need excess pass attempts or rushing production to backdoor into a top-16 finish. He enters the week as the QB17 per game. Minshew will primarily peppering D.J. Chark with targets, while Laviska Shenault (underneath gadget project) and Keelan Cole (slot) round out the passing game. The latter two are outside the top-40 in fantasy usage over their last four weeks and are best left on the bench while facing tough individual matchups. Chark’s outlook is palatable, if not underrated. He’s up to WR1 usage over the last four weeks following his injury and is averaging the 5th-most air yards per game (113) over that stretch. He has WR2/3 upside. … This is a bad matchup on paper for James Robinson, who has a 40% touch share while leading compared to a 24% touch share while trailing. The Jaguars are 7.5-point road underdogs of course, and the Chargers have allowed the third-fewest carries per game (21.8) on defense. Robinson should be downgraded to low-end RB2 levels while Chris Thompson chips in on third downs.
25. Giants (20.25, +4.5) @ PHI
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Quick Notes |
Fantasy Rank: 31, Team Pass Attempts: 23, Team Carries: 30 | |
RB23 Devonta Freeman | 20 touches as bellcow in Week 6, but RB2/3 behind awful OL. |
TE19 Evan Engram | 5.0 targets per game (mostly curls) in the last 4 weeks. Sadly, TE2. |
WR30 Darius Slayton | WR3 usage as deep threat, but Shepard due back. Faces CB Slay. |
WR78 Golden Tate | 14% target share without Shepard. Droppable. |
NA Sterling Shepard (Q) | Mostly avoid the first week back from injury. Potential WR4/5 later. |
Team Overview
A below-average offensive line and a coaching staff that’s limited once-explosive playmakers has the Giants 23rd in pass attempts and 30th in carries through six weeks. Luckily, the Eagles have allowed the fourth-most plays per game (65.7) on defense, so volume should be up for all involved. Daniel Jones will possibly get Sterling Shepard (toe) back in the lineup, but that’s bad news for deep-threat Darius Slayton, underneath slot target Golden Tate, and Evan Engram. All should be projected for 1-2 points less when Shepard is fully healthy. Slayton catches coverage from his long-lost cousin CB Darius Slay (without the ton), who is good not great. He’s still the best bet for WR3 production by far. The Eagles are 21st in rushing EPA defense but still have the advantage in the trenches against the Giants’ OL and Devonta Freeman, who now has a near-bellcow role. He’s a volume-based RB2/3 with a 15-22 touch projection. I’m expecting the Eagles defensive line to have a decent game overall.
26. Bears (19.75, +5.5) @ LAR
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Quick Notes |
Fantasy Rank: 24, Team Pass Attempts: 5, Team Carries: 29 | |
RB11 David Montgomery | xFPs per game: With Cohen (11.4), without (18.5). So slow tho. RB2. |
TE5 Jimmy Graham | 1.7 red zone targets per game means he’s somehow a TE1/2. |
WR1 Allen Robinson | 12 targets per game (1st) in last 4 weeks. Usage-based top-10 WR. |
WR61 Darnell Mooney | Plays like a rookie on WR5/6 usage. LAR 2nd vs. WRs. |
WR74 Anthony Miller | Usage still trending down. Could see some CB Ramsey. Droppable. |
Team Overview
The Rams are No. 1 in passing EPA defense and are top-10 in adjusted sack rate with Aaron Donald once again playing out of his mind. Nick Foles, who is the QB24 per game, shouldn’t be counted on with the Bears projected for 19.75 points (27th on the week). Allen Robinson can be counted on, however. He could even dodge CB Jalen Ramsey, who has oddly transitioned into the slot in recent weeks. Even if Ramsey does defend Robinson, it shouldn’t move the needle much. Robinson is now the WR1 overall in fantasy usage over the last four weeks on 12.0 targets per game. We can argue the quarterback’s efficiency, but I’ll put my eggs into elite volume and talent here. Robinson is a top-10 option, especially with Darnell Mooney (WR61 fantasy usage) and Anthony Miller (WR74 fantasy usage) offering nothing. In fact, they’re behind Jimmy Graham in the pecking order. Graham is averaging 1.7 red zone targets per game as a touchdown-or-bust TE1/2. … David Montgomery offers no long speed, but he’s averaging 18.5 expected fantasy points per game since Tarik Cohen’s injury. He won’t live up to those expectations because he’s bad, but it’s enough to work with as a volume-based RB2 now that he’s playing passing downs in addition to his 14-plus carries per game. The Rams have struggled defending the run (23rd in rushing EPA) at times, too.
27. Broncos (18.5, +10) vs. KC
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Quick Notes |
Fantasy Rank: 38, Team Pass Attempts: 25, Team Carries: 21 | |
RB15 Melvin Gordon | Had RB2 usage but Lindsay is healthy. No-floor RB2/3 in RBBC. |
RB26 Phillip Lindsay | All 23 Week 6 touches on 1st/2nd down. RB2/3 without Gordon. |
TE8 Noah Fant | Elite prospect + TE1 usage if healthy (ankle). |
WR40 Tim Patrick | Deep-threat (16.5 aDOT). KC allowing the 4th-fewest PaAtt. WR5. |
WR45 Jerry Jeudy | 17% target share in the last 4. KC 5th vs. WRs. Upside slot WR4. |
Team Overview
After weeks of injuries, the Broncos will have Drew Lock, Melvin Gordon, Phillip Lindsay, Noah Fant, and KJ Hamler back in the lineup to pair with deep-threat Tim Patrick and first-rounder Jerry Jeudy. It’s a crowded offense that only projects for 18.5 points according to Vegas, and the Chiefs have allowed the fourth-fewest pass attempts per game (33.7) on defense. There’s simply not a single player that offers any floor here, but hopefully the Broncos can begin sustaining drives. Fant is the best fantasy asset here after practicing in full for two-straight days and seeing TE8 fantasy usage prior to his injury. His athleticism should earn him five-plus targets. … Running back touches between Lindsay and Gordon will be a storyline to watch. Last week, all 23 of Lindsay’s touches came on first- or second-down. I expect that to continue with Gordon best-suited for third downs. It could be a frustrating committee where Gordon gets the high-value touches (targets + goal line) and Lindsay gobbles up 6-12 touches, too. Gordon should be downgraded to the RB2/3 border even with the Chiefs 28th in rushing EPA defense.
28. Jets (15.75, +13.5) vs. BUF
Fantasy Usage (Link) | Quick Notes |
Fantasy Rank: 26, Team Pass Attempts: 11, Team Carries: 24 | |
RB40 Frank Gore | Please don’t. Would rather roster rookie RB Lamical Perine. |
WR2 usage Week 6. Primary deep threat. Faces CB White. WR5. |
Team Overview
The Bills are very injured right now on defense, but so are the Jets on offense. Sam Darnold is expected to play on a slightly bummed shoulder, while Jamison Crowder seems to be more questionable after going from limited to DNP to limited in practice this week. Crowder’s floor is lower than normal due to injury but offers WR1/2 potential in PPR formats if healthy. The Bills have been lit by slot receivers and could be without their top-three corners. Breshad Perriman (ankle) was left off the injury report and could be a legit WR3 option if Crowder is out after seeing WR2-level usage last week. His matchup is nothing to worry about. It just comes down to Crowder’s health. If there’s an ugly play of the week, it’s Braxton Berrios (only if Crowder is out). Berrios had 13 expected PPR points in his lone game without Crowder and with Darnold this week, although that was without Perriman. … Frank Gore was the Week 6 starter, but how could the Jets continue trotting him out there with rookie Lamical Perine deserving looks to see what they have. Neither are top-30 options.
Updated Saturday: Jamison Crowder is out, pushing Breshad Perriman to WR3/flex consideration. Braxton Berrios could be in large-field DFS tournament player pools, particularly in Bills stacks.
Charts of the Week
From a league-wide perspective, there are a lot of teams in good (not great) spots this week. It’s cool to see the Chargers playing with above-average offensive pace while having a high-upside, dual-threat quarterback. That’ll help everyone in that offense. The Falcons are also back on track offensively with Julio back in the lineup. Despite some up-and-down passing performances, the Cardinals continue to project well for fantasy production with their fast-paced offense. As for the Cowboys, I expect them to slow their pace over the second half of the season but still play at near league-high speeds. Dalton just has to play a little better than he did in his debut to keep this offense alive for fantasy. I’m cautiously optimistic, although not expecting Dak-level production from anyone.
A new chart! You love to see it (I hope). What it shows is if a team is expected to pass more (or less) this week compared to their usual average pass attempts due to their opponent. For example, the Cardinals are the biggest candidate to pass more this week because their opponent (Seattle) has allowed the most pass attempts on defense this season. The number you see is the Cardinals’ average pass attempts this season minus the Seahawks’ average pass attempts allowed on defense this season. So on the flip side, the Cowboys are expected to pass less than they’ve been passing because they play Washington this week.
A quick rant: Defensive efficiency is only moderately helpful for fantasy purposes because it can be skewed by the differences in scheduling. I prefer looking at plays allowed, passes allowed, and rushes allowed on defense when targeting positive matchups. They are better stats because they have some signal in how good a defense is at stopping the pass or run while also telling us about game script and offensive pace. Even if a defense is okay at stopping the run, if they’re offense sucks, it’s a good defense to target for fantasy because there’s a higher chance our fantasy running back will be in positive game script. The rushing efficiency stat doesn’t tell us that story. Their rushing attempts allowed does.
The Bills and Packers are in eruption spots when it comes to projected efficiency. Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs should shred the Jets, while Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams are rebound candidates against the Texans. It’s a good week to get Chargers’ pass-catchers into lineups with the league-worst passing EPA defense on the schedule. On the flip side, it’s hard to trust any receiver outside of Allen Robinson from the Broncos, Bears, and Giants this week.
As described earlier, what this chart shows is if a team is expected to rush more (or less) this week compared to their usual average pass attempts due to their opponent. I expect Washington, the Giants, Seahawks, and Bills to rush the ball more than usual this week, while the Titans, Raiders, Patriots, Rams, and Browns are expected to run slightly less than usual.
Sadly, there’s not a running back in a total eruption spot this week, at least in terms of rushing efficiency. The Cardinals and Patriots are smashing everyone else in rushing EPA efficiency this year with their mobile quarterbacks, while the Rams and Titans are doing the best among teams without rushing quarterbacks. On paper, this is not a Josh Jacobs game because the Bucs have been dominant in rushing EPA defense for not only this year but in 2019 as well.
If the Chargers don’t vault up the neutral pass rate leaderboards, coach Anthony Lynn deserves to be fired. They have everything in place to sling the ball around right now, and don’t have the offensive line talent to run the ball (nor Austin Ekeler). It’s also worth pointing out that the Chiefs aren’t leading the NFL in neutral pass rate as they did in 2019 and before that. It’s because the Chiefs are seeing a ton of two-high safety looks with defenses doing everything to keep things in front of them instead of trying to defend Tyreek Hill down the field. This has made Kansas City run the ball more than usual. I do think this will continue as it’s worked to a certain degree in matchups this season.
It’s a great week for fantasy defenses compared to earlier in the year. The Bills, Chiefs, Eagles, and Bucs are all in decent spots. They’re expected to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks and aren’t expected to give up many points. That’s the combination we want. I lean towards the heaviest-pressure defense when debating between two units for fantasy. Pressures created turnovers, and we need turnovers to make a difference in our stupid little game.
