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We’re nearing the beating, bleeding heart of fantasy football draft season, and the people are asking -- begging, pleading, in fact -- for viable Zero RB draft targets.
Not really, of course. Zero RB -- a strategy in which one largely fades running backs until the middle and late rounds -- remains a fringe approach to constructing fantasy squads in the wider fantasy-playing public. Deploy Zero RB in a draft room full of well-adjusted normie fantasy managers and someone might call the cops by the tenth round. Zero RB is a thought crime in 11 states, after all.
Like everything else in fantasy football, our Zero RB targets -- mid-to-late round running backs who could emerge as every-week starters -- will shift over the next month and a half. Training camp injuries, roster cuts, preseason overperformance or underperformance: They can change the way we view a backfield in the weeks before the regular season kicks off.
But we’ll start here, with rookies reporting to training camp. I’ll outline Zero RB targets in the middle, late, and very late rounds of your upcoming drafts. Hopefully you’ll land on guys who find their way into consistent workloads. This always pairs nicely with the elite wideouts and tight ends you scoop up with the Zero RB approach.
Varying Flavors of Zero RB
First, let’s review the inherently volatile Zero RB draft strategy and its many cousins.
-Traditional Zero RB: You wait until the middle rounds to take a running back who can deliver usable fantasy weeks while you wait for your later-round lottery ticket backs to pop. Using this strategy can create a fantasy roster with three top receivers, an elite tight end, and a top-three quarterback. Your league mates will look at the strength of your lineups and ask why you couldn’t have also drafted a couple of the NFL’s best running backs.
-Extreme Zero RB: This approach is usually reserved for PPR formats in which you can start four or five (or more?) receivers. Leagues that artificially inflate tight end scoring are also begging for this strategy. Probably you won’t get a running back until the double-digit rounds, sending your league mates into convulsions. Extreme Zero RB is not for the faint of heart, mostly because anyone who sees the resulting roster will vomit on or near you.
-Hero RB: That thing where you take a top-end running back in the first or second round and fade the position until the double-digit rounds (or thereabouts). The nerds also call this approach Anchor RB. The haters will call it nonsense because you’ve violated the basic tenets of Zero RB. Hero RB is often greeted with jeers like, “Zero RB literally means you draft zero running backs” and “Where’s your god now.” You may be pelted with tomatoes and/or beer bottles. No matter. It’s a viable approach.
The Guys Who Can Make Zero RB Work For You (Yes, You)
Now to our redraft Zero RB targets. I’m using 12-team Yahoo! average draft position data because it’s more reflective of how fantasy gamers at large will draft in the coming weeks. I’m not sure how instructive it is to use ADP data showing the draft valuations of folks who have invested the GDP of Brazil in best ball leagues since March 1.
Rounds 8-10
8.06: Devin Singletary (BUF)
9.06: Rashaad Penny (SEA)
9.08: Kareem Hunt (CLE)
10.03: Melvin Gordon (DEN)
10.06: Kenneth Walker (SEA)
10.07: Tony Pollard (DAL)
-You’re screaming about the lack of one AJ Dillon on this list. I get it. But Dillon, going in the seventh round, is too pricey to be a true Zero RB target. While I won’t come to your house and pelt you with ice cubes if you go ahead and take the plunge on Dillon in the seventh, he’s not someone I’m rostering unless he falls below ADP. (There’s also a chance Dillon, who in 2021 ranked 54th in PFF’s breakaway rate and 24th in elusive rating, is Just A Guy who can’t overtake Aaron Jones, who might be great).
-In many leagues, you’re going to have to take Pollard in the ninth round if you absolutely want to secure him as a pillar of our Zero RB draft. That’s fine -- do it. I’ve written extensively about Pollard as a hyper-efficient pass catcher and (to a lesser extent) rusher who may be called upon as a pass-catching option in a Dallas offense not exactly teeming with great receivers outside CeeDee Lamb. Pollard’s massive, mouth-watering upside is not entirely priced into his redraft ADP. There is, however, the nightmare scenario in which a now-healthy Ezekiel Elliott continues to hog the Cowboys’ high value backfield touches and plays an entire season.
-You may have noticed I included both Seahawks running backs on my list of round 8-10 targets. Though we’ve seen recent reports that Rashaad Penny could be in line for a starter’s workload, training camp and the preseason will go a long way in determining whether Penny or Walker will start the regular season as Seattle’s starter. The Athletic’s Michael-Shawn Dugar has been bullish on the prospects of a Walker backfield takeover, calling Walker a “perfect fit” for the team’s rushing scheme. I prefer Walker at his ADP, in case you can’t tell.
-Devin Singletary is way better than you think he is. In 2021, when he finally seized the primary back role in the potent Bills offense, Singletary trailed only Javonte Williams in evasion rate and ranked sixth in broken tackle rate. He popped in both categories in 2020 as well. Singletary was 14th in expected fantasy points over the regular season’s final seven weeks. That the Bills panicked and took James Cook in the 2022 draft after losing out on J.D. McKissic in free agency shouldn’t scare you off Singletary. The Athletic’s Joe Buscaglia reported this month that Buffalo coaches remain “firmly behind” Singletary -- who posted the league’s eighth highest breakaway rate in 2021 -- as the team’s lead back. You’re going to want the No. 1 backfield option in a wildly efficient offense that led the league in points per play a year ago.
-LateRound.com’s JJ Zachariason has made a compelling case for fading older running backs in the middle rounds. That would include guys like Melvin Gordon. But if Gordon, 29, falls to double-digit rounds -- eight rounds after backfield mate Javonte Williams -- I think he fits well into a Zero RB roster build. Denver’s backs are expected to be an outsized part of a Russell Wilson-centric passing offense that could be little more than a mix between deep shots and dump offs. Gordon in 2021 had a higher receiving fantasy points above expected than Williams and has proven a capable pass catcher throughout his NFL career. At worst, Gordon -- ninth among all backs in rush yards over expected per attempt last season -- should be usable for Zero RB drafters. Don’t reach for him though.
Rounds 11-13
11.01: Chase Edmonds (MIA)
11.06: Rhamondre Stevenson (NE)
12.06: Ronald Jones (KC)
12.08: Nyheim Hines (IND)
12.09: Marlon Mack (HOU)
13.03: Michael Carter (NYJ)
-The uncertainty surrounding Miami’s backfield -- which has the potential to be as maddening as the 49ers backfield -- has suppressed Edmonds’ redraft ADP since he was acquired by the Dolphins for $12.6 million over two years. Some of Edmonds’ peripherals are eye catching, such as his average of three yards before contact per carry, the second highest in the league last season behind only Miles Sanders. He was seventh in yards before contact (indicating explosiveness) in 2020. Edmonds in 2021 had the league’s eighth highest WOPR (a combination of a player’s target share and air yards) among running backs. I had forgotten how good Edmonds has been when given a decent workload. In seven games where Edmonds has seen at least 12 carries, he’s averaged 81.3 rushing yards and 0.58 rushing touchdowns. But it’s his pass-catching prowess that should most interest fantasy drafters this summer. Raheem Mostert, who followed Mike McDaniel to Miami, is struggling with a 2021 knee injury that has (already) made him highly questionable for the start of the season. Edmonds would compete with plodder Sony Michel and Myles Gaskin, who was one of the league’s worst rushers in 2021, posting the NFL’s lowest yards after contact per carry.
-There are no two ways about it: Carter had an outstanding rookie campaign. He was among the league’s most efficient pass-catching running backs and was one of just eight backs who averaged three yards after contact. The Jets might not know this, seeing that they drafted presumed workhorse Breece Hall in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Carter should remain a part of the Jets offense -- most likely as a third down back. He comes with the tantalizing upside of a three-down role should Hall miss time in 2022.
-Colts coaches are doing that thing again where they talk up Hines as if Jonathan Taylor doesn’t exist. It’s tough to find a path for every-week fantasy viability for Hines, but if he drops into the 11th or 12th round, he’s a must-have for Zero RB truthers. A proficient pass catcher with a death grip on the RB2 role is what we want. And it’s what we get with Hines.
-Stevenson ranked second in broken tackle rate among all backs in 2021 and was well above backfield mate Damien Harris in fantasy points over expected. Hopefully a year of experience in the complex New England offense will keep Stevenson from Bill Belichick‘s doghouse in 2022. He’s a proven target commander who could serve as the centerpiece of the Patriots offense should Harris get dinged up. He could also be a better fit for the kind of stretch running plays the revamped Shanahanian New England offense will run in 2022 -- a far cry from the straight-ahead rushing approach of Josh McDaniels’ offense.
Rounds 14-16 (and fliers with no ADP)
14.01: Alexander Mattison (MIN)
14.02: Tyler Allgeier (ATL)
14.02: Isaiah Spiller (LAC)
14.03: Rachaad White (TB)
14.05: Khalil Herbert (CHI)
N/A: Tyrion Davis-Price (SF)
N/A: D’Onta Foreman (CAR)
N/A: Kenneth Gainwell (PHI)
N/A: Isiah Pacheco (KC)
N/A: Zamir White (LV)
N/A: Khalil Herbert (CHI)
N/A: D’Ernest Johnson (CLE)
-Any and all of these backs are worth scooping up as end-of-bench stashes for Zero RB teams that need one or two late-round runners to stumble into opportunity. Rookie Rachaad White has renewed interest among Zero RB adherents because Leonard Fournette is extra thicc headed into Tampa training camp. White has made no qualms about gunning for the team’s starting job. He has quite the resume too: White was an elite receiving back at Arizona State with a 2.59 yards per route run and ran for more than 1,000 yards and 15 touchdowns in his breakout senior season. White could make Giovani Bernard a roster cut candidate. He would probably get first dibs to be Tom Brady‘s RB1 should Lombardi Lenny have more injury issues in 2022.
-Panthers beat writer Darin Gant told us on a recent Good Football Show that Foreman will be Carolina’s lead back should Christian McCaffrey again miss time in 2022. It makes sense. Chuba Hubbard was unspeakably bad as a rusher and pass catcher last season and Foreman is all the way back from an early-career Achilles injury. Foreman is a priority pick in every draft for me.
-A more balanced Eagles offense could mean more snaps and more pass routes for highly efficient pass catcher Kenneth Gainwell. I wrote about his prospects in a less run-heavy Philadelphia attack, and believe he could be a nice surprise in PPR formats. Be aware that Gainwell likely lacks three-down upside in the Eagles offense. He’s more of an option that can hold you over until a later-round back busts out.
-Founding Father Alexander Mattison remains a no-brainer Zero RB target. He has basically no fantasy value outside a Dalvin Cook injury though. Mattison is purely a stash for those filling their bench with lottery tickets.
-In a limited role last season, D’Ernest Johnson was tremendously impressive. He was fourth in yards after contact, fifth in broken tackle rate, and second in evasion rate. He might be really good, even if he’s no one’s idea of a physical freak. Johnson will be buried on the Cleveland depth chart if he remains a Brown this summer. It’s the potential for a trade -- something Browns beat writers have talked about for months -- that makes Johnson a sneaky late-round pick up.
-The Niners drafted Davis-Price because they were so wretched on third and short last year (mostly because Kyle Shanahan refuses to pass the ball on third and short). The big-bodied Davis-Price (the kids are calling him TDP) would have a decent shot to be the lead runner in a run-first 49ers offense should Elijah Mitchell struggle with injuries this season. Jeff Wilson, who is apparently still on the team’s roster, could ruin these best-laid plans, of course.
-The new Raiders regime has no commitment whatsoever to Josh Jacobs and used a fourth rounder on Zamir White. Raiders beat writers have said there’s almost no chance Jacobs resumes the bellcow role he enjoyed in the latter half of the 2021 season. The Athletic’s Vic Tafur suggested new head coach Josh McDaniels already believes White is already a superior option to Jacobs and Kenyan Drake. A solid camp showing from White and his ADP could jump into the ninth round.
-Pacheco, a rookie out of Rutgers, has drawn nothing short of rave reviews from teammates, coaches, and Kansas City beat writers since the start of Chiefs training camp. Pacheco, a big back who grabbed attention with his speed at the 2022 NFL Combine, has taken snaps with Kansas City’s first-team offense and could make Ronald Jones or Jerick McKinnon expendable. As JJ Zachariason points out in his 2022 Late Round Draft Guide, Pacheco’s closest comp if Damien Williams, who thrived as KC’s primary back in 2019. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has quietly had an encouraging training camp but another season of dings and bruises for CEH could give Pacheco the opening he needs to operate as KC’s No. 1 running back.
-Herbert took over as Chicago’s top back from Week 5 to Week 8 with David Montgomery sidelined, scoring the 17th most running back PPR points over that span (while scoring a single touchdown on 89 touches). Only eight running backs had a higher yards after contact per carry in those four weeks. A mere six backs posted a higher evasion rate than Herbert from Week 5 to Week 8. The highly-productive college back could be in line for more regular work in 2022, per Bears beat writers who have said the team’s new coaching staff might split the backfield workload more than Matt Nagy did over the past few seasons. That’s not really why we’re interested in Herbert though; a handful of weekly touches isn’t going to make him fantasy viable in 12-team formats. He’s an ideal Zero RB target because he would be something close to a 20-touch running back should Montgomery miss time again in 2022.
