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The best way to avoid losing your mind completely if you fall short in your league’s playoffs is to avoid, by any means necessary, the toxic Coulda Shoulda Woulda Game.
You know this game. You’ve played it. I’ve played it. We hate it as much as we love it as it rages between our ears. It goes something like this: If I would’ve simply played Player B over Player A, I’d be competing for my league’s championship. A nice little extension to this perverse game is to compare your fantasy team’s championship week point total to the league winner. If you scored more -- if you would’ve won the damn thing -- you have enough mental anguish to last you through the offseason. So you’d have that going for you, which is nice.
Avoiding the Coulda Shoulda Woulda game is easy. It starts with your start-sit decisions, and it requires you to make the best process-based choice you can make. Don’t get stupid and definitely don’t get cute. Don’t plug in a borderline guy because, in some universe, he will outscore the more entrenched, reliable option who has underperformed of late. Don’t put too much emphasis on a player’s matchup. Don’t be stubborn about keeping a guy in your lineup just because you spent a mid-round draft pick on him or he delivered a handful of usable weeks in the season’s early going.
Making decisions that won’t haunt you for the rest of your days is the antidote to the Coulda Woulda Shouldas. If you’re confident in your choices, the horrible game stops before it starts. And if the worst comes to pass and the process does not deliver the desired results, call the Men in Black and have them wipe your mind clean.
Week 14 Results
Brandon McManus
1/1 field goals
10 fantasy points
Rank: 10th
Randy Bullock
2/2 field goals
9 fantasy points
Rank: 11th
Jason Myers
2/2 field goals
7 fantasy points
Rank: 18th
You crave weekly kicker notes. Who am I to deny such a wholesome craving?
-Dustin Hopkins is fantasy relevant now that he’s attached to the high-powered Chargers offense. He’s fantasy’s seventh-highest scoring kicker over the past four weeks following his three field goal performance last week against the Giants. While Hopkins doesn’t fit the process in Week 15 with LA entering as four-point home dogs to the Chiefs, you could do far worse than the Bolts kicker. Thursday night’s game should be a close one -- most KC games have been since the Chiefs committed to winning with defense, running, and soul-killing checkdown passes. Hopkins has multiple attempts in five of his seven games as a Charger.
-I’m loath to write about Houston and Jacksonville kickers. Truly, no human has endured anything worse. It is my fiduciary responsibility to tell you both kickers are in play as desperation options this week. The Jags are at home, favored by three points against the Texans in what should be the saddest game in the history of organized sports. Here’s the upshot: Davis Mills, who tore up the Seahawks last week for 331 yards, might -- just might -- make Ka’imi Fairbairn viable. Fairbairn, who was once the fair-haired child of this here Kicker Corner, managed nine fantasy points last week against Seattle with two field goals. This week he faces a Jacksonville team allowing the sixth-most field goal attempts (29). Way back in Week 1, then-Texans kicker Joey Slye nailed all three of his field goal tries against the Jaguars in a 37-21 Houston loss. I’d prefer Fairbairn over Jaguars kicker Matthew Wright. The process might smite me but I can’t put faith in anyone trapped in Urban Meyer’s dysfunctional hellhole.
-Daniel Carlson is a borderline no-go option this week against the Browns (unless the team’s COVID outbreak ravages the Browns roster to the point of a Week 15 skeleton crew). Right now, the Raiders are 5.5-point road underdogs. Not even the team’s love of short field goals could save Carlson in last week’s meltdown against KC. You’re better off with a streamer this week.
-I remain hesitant to declare Ryan Succop a set-it-and-forget-it starter with the Bucs discovering that one weird trick to winning football games (scoring touchdowns). Tampa is now 6.85 field goal tries under expectation. Only seven teams have attempted more field goals than the Bucs. This week, they have another massive total (28.5 points) against a New Orleans defense that could be ripped by Tampa’s passing attack. Succop at the very least is a floor option in Week 15.
Plug-and-Play Starters
Matt Prater (ARI) at DET: Prater came through for you last week in the Cardinals’ Monday night loss. His 16 fantasy points led all kickers and surely vaulted you into the playoffs. As the fantasy industry’s foremost Prater truther this summer, I will accept flowers and chocolates. You’re playing Prater against the moribund Lions; Arizona is a 13.5-point road favorite with the week’s highest total (30). The Cards are 0.45 field goal attempts below expectation.
Matt Gay (LAR) vs. SEA: The Rams are at home, favored by 6.5 points over the Seabags. Gay scored eight fantasy points with two field goals when these teams squared off in Week 5. The Rams are 0.91 field goal tries over expectation.
Harrison Butker (KC) at LAC: Fantasy’s third-highest scoring kicker since Week 8, Butker stayed hot (warm, at least) in Week 14 against the Raiders with two field goals and six extra points. The Chiefs are favored this week against the Chargers and have the league’s third-highest total (27.75 points). Kansas City is 3.44 field goal tries under expectation.
Greg Zuerlein (DAL) at NYG: Legatron stays in your lineup this week against the floundering G-people. New York -- a 10.5-point underdog -- has allowed the tenth most field goal tries this year and gave up three field goals to Zuerlein in Week 5. Dallas is 2.22 field goal attempts over expectation.
Tyler Bass (BUF) at CAR: Things have been rough for our guy Bass. His fortunes have gone the way of Buffalo’s struggling offense, as 15 kickers have scored more fantasy points than Bass over the past six weeks. This is what the zoomers call a “get right spot.” Buffalo is favored by 10.5 points with a 27-point implied total. The Bills are 1.01 field goal tries over expectation -- nothing that should concern fantasy managers.
Greg Joseph (MIN) at CHI: The Vikings are 3.5-point favorites, making Joseph a passable process option. The Vikings are concerningly 5.49 field goal tries over expectation through Week 14.
Nick Folk (NE) at IND: In one of the most baffling lines in NFL history, the Colts are 2.5-point favorites against New England this week. Bill Belichick’s suboptimal fourth down decision making -- owning the analytics nerds -- and the Patriots’ shutdown defense should create enough neutral and positive script for Folk to post decent numbers against Indy. Folk has logged multiple field goals in three of the Pats’ four 2021 losses (if you think the Patriots could possibly lose this game).
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Week 15 Streaming Options
Robbie Gould (SF) vs. ATL (25 percent rostered)
Gould seemingly fits the process every week. Even when he doesn’t, the Niners’ solid play over the past month has kept game script stable enough for Gould to get his shots. The old man -- fantasy’s sixth-highest scoring kicker since Week 10 -- has three attempts in three of the team’s past four games. He missed two of those kicks, but that’s beside the point. The process reigns supreme.
Gould is a solid option again in Week 15 with the 49ers at home, favored by 8.5 points over the Falcons. Only Dallas and Kansas City have higher Week 15 implied totals than the Niners (27.25) as of this writing.
Atlanta, allowing the league’s eighth-highest rushing success rate, should be primed for domination by Kyle Shanahan’s run-heavy offense. That the Falcons are technically a pass funnel defense doesn’t mean they’re not exploitable on the ground, or that Shanahan won’t try to bash the dirty birds with his ground-and-pound offense. This is a long way of saying the Falcons stand little chance of stopping the 49ers, and that Gould could benefit. Atlanta, not giving up many field goals on the season, is allowing 7.72 fantasy points to kickers in 2021 losses.
The 49ers are 0.27 field goal tries under expectation through Week 14. That’s good for Gould.
Jason Sanders (MIA) vs. NYJ (14 percent rostered)
In a surprisingly high-functioning Miami offense against a Jets team allowing the second-most field goal attempts (31), Sanders is far and away the best streamer of this oh-so-critical fantasy week. Early-season disillusionment with the Dolphins offense and Sanders’ struggles -- he’s made just 74 percent of his kicks in 2021 -- have ensured he’s available in your league. (Not in my league, you cry out. In my league, Sanders was drafted in the eighth round!)
Sanders disappointed when these teams faced off in Week 11, missing one of his two field goal attempts on his way to a six-point outing. Hardly anyone -- dare I say no one -- wrote home about that performance. The process was spot on though: Sanders got his multi-attempt game. He simply didn’t cash in. It happens.
Nine of the 13 kickers to face the Jets this season have logged multiple attempts; six kickers have at least three field goal tries against New York. When teams can run up and down the field with fleeting resistance, it turns out kickers get a bunch of field goal tries. The process, things of that nature.
The Dolphins enter Week 15 as 8.5-point home favorites, and Sanders has averaged two field goal tries in Miami victories. Opportunity has been plentiful of late, as Sanders has ten attempts over the team’s past four games -- all wins. He should be locked in for two or three field goals against the hapless Jets. Miami is 1.8 field goal attempts over expectation this season.
Brandon McManus (DEN) vs. CIN (43 percent rostered)
Between McGoatus’ rostership skyrocketing thanks to this highly-influential and widely-read kicker column, he’s just barely a streamer headed into Week 15. But the Broncos are at home and favored by 1.5 over the Bengals, making McManus a permissible process play.
Giving up the ninth most field goal attempts in 2021, the Bengals are a better kicker matchup than they appear. Kickers facing the striped ones have made a lowly 75 percent of their kicks -- among the league’s lowest rates. That has suppressed kicker production against the Bengals. The opportunity, however, has been there.
As mentioned in last week’s Kicker Corner (how dare you for not reading), McManus has had elite opportunity (2.29 attempts per game) in Denver wins. This game profiles as a close back and forth, at worst, which should put Evan McPherson in play too. I’d prefer McManus, per the ever-loving process. Denver is 0.42 field goal tries over expectation.
