We’re down to just two weekends of the NFL season left and with just four teams still standing, the toothpaste in the player pool has been squeezed nearly dry. The Falcons will be hosting the Packers in the first game on Sunday, carrying a massive 60 point over/under with Atlanta as four point home favorites. When these teams met in Atlanta in Week 8, the Falcons won 33-32, so that lofty total is warranted. The Steelers head to Foxboro for another rematch as the Patriots beat the Steelers 27-16 back in Week 7 when Landry Jones started for an injured Ben Roethlisberger. That late game has opened with New England as a 5.5 point favorite with the over/under set at 50.5 points.
Quarterbacks
1. Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers has set the bar so high down the stretch that his 356-yard, two touchdown and 22.8 fantasy point day in the Divisional Round felt somewhat disappointing for fantasy purposes. He’s now thrown for at least 300-yards and multiple touchdowns in four straight games. When these teams played back in Week 8, Rodgers posted 33.8 fantasy points – the most allowed by Atlanta in a game this season- and that was in a game with Randall Cobb, Jared Cook and Ty Montgomery inactive.
2. Matt Ryan: Ryan has been extremely efficient all season long and he’s taken that efficiency a step further over the past month as he’s completed 97 of 129 pass attempts (75 percent) over his past four games with 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions while averaging 308 yards and 23.5 fantasy points per game over that stretch. When these teams met in Week 8, Ryan connected on 80 percent (28 of 35) of his throws for 288 yards and three touchdowns and the Green Bay secondary has been a target all season long for fantasy purposes. The Packers have allowed 20 or more points to three of the past four quarterbacks they’ve faced and have allowed 338 yards passing per game over their past five games with a low of 299 yards to Matt Barkley, Sam Bradford, Matthew Stafford, Eli Manning and Dak Prescott.
3. Tom Brady: The AFC side may not have the expected fireworks as the NFC matchup, but still features two big name quarterbacks capable of big fantasy games. Brady has another tough paper play for fantasy this round as the Steelers have not allowed vast fantasy output to opposing quarterbacks on the season. Only one quarterback reached 20 points against the Steelers this season and that was way back in Week 3. Pittsburgh is the only team in the league that has allowed two or fewer touchdown passes in every game this season. Still, Brady is more than viable of having a good game and he’s had success against Pittsburgh and Mike Tomlin defenses. In six career games against the Steelers under Tomlin, Brady has completed 71 percent of his passes with 19 touchdowns and no interceptions while averaging 315 passing yards per game.
4. Ben Roethlisberger: Roethlisberger is arguably the best quarterback the Patriots have faced all season long - he missed the first meeting between these teams with a knee injury- but Big Ben has been nothing close to his nickname or stature over the past several weeks for fantasy use. Roethlisberger has thrown six touchdown passes to eight interceptions over the past five games while averaging just 235.4 passing yards per game over his past eight games played. The rogue’s gallery of quarterbacks that New England has faced is far from a frightening group, but they still didn’t elevate those quarterbacks as well. Given Roethlisberger’s flaky road performances over the past three years running combined with his recent output, it’s hard to put him over any of the other quarterbacks remaining.
Running Backs
1. Le’Veon Bell: Above I mentioned that Roethlisberger’s counting stats have taken a dip over the past eight weeks and that coincides with the Steelers emphasis on running this offense through Bell. Over the past eight games, the Steelers have run the ball on 49.6 percent of their offensive snaps, up from 35.7 percent prior. Bell has averaged 32 touches per game over that span with 27.5 of those touches coming from the ground. The season-high for rushing against the Patriots was 89 yards from David Johnson back in Week 1, but Bell has more than enough all-purpose ability to get over, still. Bell has at least 130 yards from scrimmage in nine straight games, the third longest streak ever in league history and totaled 149 yards on 31 touches when these teams played without Roethlisberger active in Week 7.
2. Devonta Freeman: Freeman is the clear second choice at the position and there’s a wide gap after him. He has at least 125 yards from scrimmage in three of his past four games and has scored 20 or more points in five of his past seven games as he’s found the end zone nine times over that span.
3. Ty Montgomery: Montgomery has a wide chasm from his ceiling and floor, but his ceiling is as high as there is at position. He’s sandwiched three single-digit scoring games around 29.1 and 23.1 point games over the past five weeks. It’s also a good week for him to build on those seven targets he saw last weekend, the most he’s had in a game since Week 7. No team allowed more receptions (6.8) and receiving yards (54.5) per game to opposing backfields during the regular season than Atlanta.
4. Dion Lewis: Lewis has been the lead back for the Patriots over the past month, out-touching LeGarrette Blount 40 to 22 in the first half of games over the past four games played. Lewis even was involved near the end zone a week ago over Blount as he scored three touchdowns (two offensive) after having just six career touchdowns coming into that game. Lewis should be used as the feature means of backfield production once again as the Steelers have very good against the run, but backs have found some success against them out of the backfield.
5. Tevin Coleman: Coleman is only going to get around a dozen touches, but no back has the touchdown upside per touch as he does for those that can’t get two high-end options into their lineups this week. Coleman has scored once every 13.6 touches on the season and has scored a touchdown in five of his seven games since returning from injury despite reaching 70-yards from scrimmage in just two of those games.
6. LeGarrette Blount: Blount is coming off of a season-low eight touches last week as he’s been relegated back to being a specialty back as the offense has gone back to being run through Dion Lewis. 36 of Blount’s 59 touches the past month have come in the second half with 20 of them coming in the fourth quarter. Even though he still has touchdown appeal on a small slate, even Blount’s ceiling has been compromised by the return of Lewis as he hasn’t hit 15 points in any of the eight games that Lewis has been active for.
Long Plays: Aaron Ripkowski, James White, Christine Michael, James Develin, Patrick DiMarco
Wide Receivers
1. Antonio Brown: Typically known for going to any measure to eliminate the opposing team’s best weapons, in the past two meetings these teams have played, the Patriots have been content letting Malcolm Butler attempt to hold his own versus Antonio Brown. In those games, Brown has caught 16 passes for 239 yards and a touchdown while being credited for catching 14 of 19 targets for 227 yards and a score in the coverage of Butler per Pro Football Focus.
2. Julio Jones: Jones managed just three catches for 29 yards on five targets when these teams first met as Green Bay rolled coverage in his direction and forced Atlanta to beat them through the air elsewhere, something they had no trouble doing. No team has been worse defending the receiver position than the Packers, allowing the most points per target to the position, so we’re not running away from that subpar output from the first meeting, but combined with Jones agitating his toe injury once again, it’s enough to give Antonio Brown an edge in a vacuum for the top spot.
3. Julian Edelman: Edelman has averaged 12.6 targets per game over the past eight weeks with 11 or more in seven of those games. Over that span, he’s accounted for 33.7 percent of the New England targets. Even with Rob Gronkowski active, Edelman has reeled in nine and 11 receptions in the past two meetings with the Steelers. He has an advantage in PPR scoring since he’s only scored three touchdowns all season, but he has the safest floor at the position.
4. Davante Adams: Adams is dealing with an ankle injury that he suffered at the end of the game versus Dallas, but is expected to be active this Sunday. Adams has had 31 targets over the past three weeks with seven touchdowns over his past eight games. Monitor his availability throughout the week, but for now, his touchdown upside has him above the players listed below and the latest news on Jordy Nelson is that he is expected to be inactive once again this week.
5. Randall Cobb: Cobb has the added bonus of potentially being the healthiest receiver for Green Bay entering this game, but he should continue his resurgence down the wire regardless. Cobb missed the first game between these teams, but two of the touchdowns thrown by Aaron Rodgers in that game went to players lined in the slot, where Cobb runs 78 percent of his routes and where he’ll be matched up with Brian Poole. Slot options such as Doug Baldwin (5-80-1), Willie Snead (3-82-0) have found success against Atlanta the past two weeks.
6. Taylor Gabriel: Gabriel hasn’t topped six targets in any game this season and has hit 80-yards in just one game, but is still in play because of his viability down the field. Gabriel led the Falcons with five touchdown receptions of 25-yards or longer.
7. Chris Hogan: Hogan left last week’s game with a thigh injury, but is expected to good to go this Sunday. Like Gabriel, Hogan isn’t going to command a ton of targets, but can make those most of them. He’s had more than five targets just twice all season, but is tied for the team lead in targets of 20 yards or more downfield (20) and leads the team in receptions (13) on those targets with three touchdowns.
8. Mohamed Sanu: Sanu had his best game of the season when these met in Week 8, catching nine of 19 targets for 84 yards and a score. He had five catches for 50 yards and a score on the final drive alone in that game. Green Bay has been plagued by slot receivers all season, so Sanu will be one of the more popular choices from the ancillary wide receiver pool.
9. Geronimo Allison: With both Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams banged up; Allison should still be in line for opportunity once again this week. Allison has averaged 72 percent of the snaps over the past four games, catching 12 passes for 211 yards and a touchdown over those games.
10. Eli Rogers: The Patriots were a weekly target for slot receivers to start the season, but over their past nine games, they’ve only allowed one touchdown from the slot. Rogers already lacked upside with just three touchdowns on the season, but if the Patriots are going to try and throw a new wrinkle at taking Antonio Brown away, he could run into some opportunity to make plays.
11. Malcolm Mitchell (vs HOU): Mitchell has missed the past two games with a knee injury and it’s still unclear if he’ll be 100 percent for this game. He’s had more than 42 yards just twice all season, but was second on the team in red zone targets (12) during the regular season.
Long Plays: Michael Floyd, Justin Hardy, Cobi Hamilton, Aldrick Robinson, Danny Amendola
Tight Ends
1. Jared Cook: Cook is far and away the best tight end fantasy option left and it’s warranted. Cook has 41 targets over the past five weeks with eight or more in four of those games. He’s snared at least five of those targets in three of those games while Atlanta has allowed 10 touchdowns to opposing tight ends on the season.
2. Martellus Bennett: It’s a steep drop to Bennett, but he just hasn’t been involved in the passing game, even with Rob Gronkowski absent. Bennett has totaled just 18 receptions for 201 yards on 30 targets over the past eight games with no more than five targets in any of those games. The silver lining is that he’s found the end zone three times, but he’s cleared 35 yards in just one game since Gronk was injured in Week 10.
3. Jesse James: James is coming off a career-high 83 receiving yards against a Kansas City team that smothers tight ends. James hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 5 and only two tight ends hit 50 yards in a game against the Patriots this season, but he’s ranked here by default of the position being so thin.
4. Austin Hooper: Hooper played 52 percent of the snaps in his return to the lineup last and although he only saw one target, the tight end position is so drained this week that he’s in play. Hooper caught five passes for 41 yards when these teams met earlier in the year when Jacob Tamme was first injured on the season and Atlanta tight ends caught seven passes for 70 yards in that game. Green Bay has allowed a string of modest to good games against Jason Witten (6-59-1), Will Tye (4-66), Eric Ebron (6-61) and Kyle Rudolph (6-53).
Long Plays: Richard Rodgers, Levine Toilolo
Kickers
1. Matt Bryant
3. Mason Crosby
No kicker has more double-digit scoring games that Bryant’s 11 on the season and he’s been held to fewer than eight points just twice all season…Gostkowski has scored double-digit points in seven of his past eight games after hitting that mark just three times over his opening 10 games…Crosby has attempted two or fewer field goals in nine of his past 10 games with single-digit output in 11 of his past 13 games… Boswell’s 21 points last week where the fourth time a kicker scored 20 or more points in a game this season and the second time he has done it.
DST
1. New England Patriots
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
3. Atlanta Falcons
4. Green Bay Packers
This is a terrible week for choosing a defense for fantasy as all of these offenses have been dampening for output allowed to DST units. Both the Falcons and Packers are expected to lose points along the way in terms of points allowed and neither team turns the ball over. One defense has cleared five points against Atlanta over their past 11 games while the past eight opposing defenses against the Packers have combined to score just seven fantasy points. I would side with either AFC team over the NFC side, with New England getting the edge as the home favorite, but I don’t predict good odds for any defense on the slate to hit double-digit output.
