RotoGrinders Primer: Wild Card

Welcome to the Wild Card Round edition of the RotoGrinders Primer! The format will be different considering the condensed slate – I’m just going to go position-by-position and try to highlight the top priority plays for Saturday and Sunday. Let’s get into it!

Quarterbacks

1. Andrew Luck ($8,000 on FanDuel, $6,400 on DraftKings) – The top two QB plays in the Wild Card Round will face off in this game – I’m giving Luck the slight edge in part because the Texans have an elite run defense and should struggle to contain his top two aerial weapons. T.Y. Hilton has consistently given the Texans fits and while he’s a little banged up heading into Saturday, there are some encouraging reports that he shouldn’t be limited much physically in an environment he should excel in. The Texans also have been attacked consistently in the middle of the field and have been a plus matchup for tight ends, good news for Eric Ebron and a plus considering Luck loves to use tight ends towards the goal line.
2. Deshaun Watson ($8,400 on FanDuel, $6,700 on DraftKings) – There is very little separating Luck and Watson, and these two will dominate my builds at the QB spot. They’ll both be popular, so if you are looking for a lower-owned pivot, Russell Wilson and Mitch Trubisky are both enticing upside options.[[ad:athena]]

Running Backs

1. Ezekiel Elliott ($8,800 on FanDuel, $9,000 on DraftKings) – It’s tough to get around this one. Elliott is a necessary cash-game spend and the clear top RB in raw projections. He’s a usage monster and Seattle’s run defense softened as the season wore on. The only reason to potentially fade him is due to the sky-high ownership he’ll carry.
2. Tarik Cohen ($7,000 on FanDuel, $5,400 on DraftKings) – Cohen’s usage dipped at the end of the regular season, but the Bears should be looking to make him an integral part of the offensive attack Sunday. The Eagles have been killed by backs with similar pass-catching profiles and Matt Nagy should be able to utilize Cohen to exploit that ongoing weakness. He’s usually a tough sell in cash games but I’m fine with rostering Cohen in any format on this slate.
3. Lamar Miller ($6,400 on FanDuel, $4,900 on DraftKings) – It starts to get pretty ugly after Elliott and Cohen and I actually have Cohen rated much more highly than Miller, Mack, and Howard – the other backs in that price range. Miller’s salary is friendly, and the Texans shouldn’t have nearly as much trouble moving the ball on the ground as the Colts should. The threat of Watson escaping certainly helps Miller’s cause.

Wide Receivers

1. T.Y. Hilton ($7,700 on FanDuel, $7,800 on DraftKings) – Hopkins is the top overall play at WR (we’ll get to him in a minute) but Hilton is the receiver I’ll end up with the most exposure to. He’s lit this defense up many times in the past and while they’ll obviously key in on him defensively, he’ll have a few chances to take the roof off. Luck’s targets are funneled so heavily towards Hilton and Ebron that it makes stacking the Colts a straightforward process.
2. DeAndre Hopkins ($8,800 on FanDuel, $8,700 on DraftKings) – I have a lot of interest in utilizing Keke Coutee as a value play at WR assuming he’s active and given that Ezekiel Elliott is a slightly higher priority cap-wise, so I’m not listing Hopkins as the top WR play. He’s still an elite play in all formats, but don’t sleep on Coutee, who could play a big role with the Texans lacking healthy pass-catchers.
3. Allen Robinson ($6,500 on FanDuel, $5,600 on DraftKings) – The Eagles are easier to beat via the air and their corner play has been the biggest hole for them defensively. They’ve stiffened in recent weeks thanks to continued success in getting to the quarterback, but Philly’s defense has been a green light for receivers all year and that trend shouldn’t stop Sunday. Taylor Gabriel is a fine pivot if you need to save some cap.

Tight Ends

1. Eric Ebron ($6,600 on FanDuel, $5,200 on DraftKings) – The Texans ranked towards the very bottom of the league in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns allowed to tight ends this year. Ebron also happens to be a red-zone monster and led the TE position in touchdowns, so unless his concussion issues flare up, double digit targets should be in the cards. I’d rather spend on Ebron than Zach Ertz.
2. It gets ugly quick at TE. Ertz is an option given his usage in the Eagles Offense and the likelihood that he’s a top-two scorer at the position, but he’s not a priority spend for me. Trey Burton has some touchdown appeal here, but he hasn’t been able to succeed without finding the painted grass due to putrid yardage totals for most of the year. Nick Vannett, Ryan Griffin, Blake Jarwin, Mark Andrews, and Jordan Thomas all have some mild GPP punt play appeal.

Defense/Special Teams

1. Chicago Bears ($5,400 on FanDuel, $3,400 on DraftKings) – This is the top cash game spend given the all-around dominance of this defense and pass rush. You always want sack/turnover upside with your D/ST units and the Bears certainly have it. The Eagles have done a good job at limiting Foles’ potential for mistakes and have been content with quick-hitting, short routes that get the ball out quickly, and Foles has demonstrated plenty of accuracy. Despite his heroics, Foles has still been turnover prone at times and that could rear its head against the league’s top defense.
2. Baltimore Ravens ($4,900 on FanDuel, $3,000 on DraftKings) – The Ravens aren’t far behind the Bears and I almost gave them the top ranking among D/ST units. It hasn’t been profitable to target the Chargers Offense with opposing defenses, but on this slate the Ravens are absolutely a worthwhile gamble. Baltimore is unlikely to give up many points, it’s just a matter of whether they can force Rivers into a few bad decisions.