Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em is geared toward season-long leagues but can also be used for daily fantasy purposes.
QUARTERBACK
Notable QBs on bye: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford
Start of the Week: Justin Herbert vs. Seahawks – With back-to-back three-touchdown games to open the season, Herbert entered Week 3 as fantasy’s overall QB7. In the four games since, Herbert has posted a meager 4:2 TD:INT mark and is coming off his first zero-TD game since Week 13 of his rookie year. Herbert is averaging just 233 passing yards over his last two outings and is fantasy’s QB23 since Week 3. Austin Ekeler has been scoring all of the Chargers’ touchdowns. Regression should swing back in Herbert’s favor. Los Angeles is fourth in pass rate over expectation and fourth in offensive plays per game while the Seahawks are 21st in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, 26th in pass-defense DVOA, 29th in opponent plays per game, 30th in opponent yards per play, and 30th in yards per attempt against. Seahawks-Chargers sports Week 7’s highest total at 50.5 points, and the Bolts are implied to score 28.5 points, the most of the week. With no Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts this week, Herbert is a top-three QB1.
Starts
Joe Burrow vs. Falcons – Top-10 in pass attempts, yards, touchdowns, QB rating, and pass attempts per game, Burrow has climbed all the way up to fantasy’s overall QB5 on the year and is coming off a 300-yard, three-TD dicing of the Marshon Lattimore-less Saints last Sunday. He’s tossed multiple touchdowns in 4-of-6 games to open the season, and after absorbing 13 sacks across Weeks 1-2, Burrow has only taken eight in the four games since. Burrow now gets a date with a Falcons defense that is one of three units that is bottom-10 in both pass- and run-defense DVOA. Atlanta is 24th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, 23rd in pass-defense DVOA, 32nd in adjusted sack rate, 30th in opponent completion rate, 31st in passing yards allowed, 24th in opponent plays per game, and 26th in yards per play allowed. The Falcons have also been hit with secondary injuries, as top CB A.J. Terrell is battling a thigh injury and No. 2 CB Casey Hayward (shoulder) was just sent to injured reserve. Cincinnati is sixth in offensive plays per game and fifth in pass rate over expectation. Look for Burrow to keep humming as a top-five QB1. Cincinnati’s implied team total of 26.75 points is the third-highest.
Geno Smith at Chargers – Smith posted his second 197-yard, zero-TD game of the year last week in a home date against the Cardinals. In a game the fantasy community zeroed in on as a potential track meet, it produced just 28 total points. Smith is still fantasy’s overall QB8 on the season, third in passer rating, third in EPA, fifth in yards per attempt, and first in completion rate. He now heads into a Week 7 date against Chargers coach Brandon Staley‘s defense that has once again disappointed for a second straight year with defensive-minded Staley at the helm. Big-ticket free-agent pickup CB J.C. Jackson had ankle surgery during the preseason and was benched last week against the Broncos while All-Pro EDGE Joey Bosa (groin) remains on I.R. The Chargers are a middling 18th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and have surrendered the sixth-most passing touchdowns. Seattle is second in yards per play while Los Angeles is 25th in yards per play allowed on defense. Smith has diced up man coverage, and Staley’s defense is man coverage-based. Smith is a QB1 in a game with a 50.5-point total.
Aaron Rodgers at Commanders – Fantasy’s overall QB25 in points per game on the year, Rodgers has yet to top 255 passing yards or throw for three touchdowns in a single game through six weeks. He’s now dealing with a thumb issue suffered last week against the Jets, but this matchup against the Commanders is too good to completely overlook. Washington is 23rd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, 19th in pass-defense DVOA, 19th in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades, 23rd in yards per attempt against, and 31st in passing touchdowns allowed. And that’s against Justin Fields, Ryan Tannehill, Cooper Rush, Jared Goff, and Trevor Lawrence in five of its six games. Rodgers may not be markedly better than these guys anymore, especially with the lack of pass-catching talent around him, but it’s still a beatable spot for the sport’s back-to-back reigning MVP. Through the air is the way to beat the Commanders, as they’re fifth in run-defense DVOA. Rodgers has an outside shot at a top-12 fantasy week and should be glued to lineups in two-QB leagues. Green Bay is a sizable five-point road favorite.
Sits
Derek Carr vs. Texans – Coming out of the bye, Carr is fantasy’s QB12 in points per game. However, he’s shown next to no ceiling with one 300-yard outing and zero three-touchdown efforts, even if the floor has been relatively safe with 250-plus yards three times and four two-TD games. Carr is what he is, and that’s a voluminous passer who does most of his work in the short areas of the field and doesn’t use his legs. He’s a bankable week-to-week asset in two-QB leagues, but there’s no upside to his game. His yards per attempt has dipped to 7.0 this season, its lowest mark since 2017. The Raiders have been installed as lofty seven-point home favorites against a Texans team also coming off its open date. Las Vegas’ two best fantasy plays in this one are Josh Jacobs and the defense. Carr’s matchup is tougher against a Houston unit that is ninth in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, ninth in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades, third in completion rate against, and second in touchdown passes allowed. A top-20 week is well within reach, but this doesn’t look like a spot Carr is going to have to drop back 40-plus times. He’s also looking likely to be without Darren Waller (hamstring) for this one.
Trevor Lawrence vs. Giants – After a strong Weeks 1-3 start to the season, Lawrence has been in a bit of a tailspin, completing just 54.9% of his throws against the Eagles, Texans, and Colts the last three weeks. He’s posted a pair of sub-175 yards games in there and only got by as fantasy’s overall QB4 last week because of two extremely fluky goal-line rushing plunges. He’s yet to throw for 300 yards in a game this season, and the Jaguars don’t seem to employ any wideouts who can make plays down the field. The Giants are playing well above their talent level on both sides of the ball, but that’s what good coaching can accomplish. DC Wink Martindale’s unit is 10th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and 10th in opponent yards per attempt despite being bottom-10 in Pro Football Focus’ coverage and pass-rush grades. Only 10 defenses have allowed fewer passing touchdowns. They limited Lamar Jackson to his worst passing day of the season, going 17-of-32 for 210 yards and a 1:1 TD:INT mark. The Giants are third in opponent plays per game. This game sports an ugly 42-point total.
Jared Goff at Cowboys – Goff was fantasy’s overall QB5 the first four weeks of the season but face-planted in Week 5 against the Patriots with 229 scoreless yards and one interception. The good news is the Lions are coming off their bye week, and both Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) and D’Andre Swift (shoulder) are much closer to 100 percent. The bad news is Goff has another brutal individual matchup against a Dallas defense that is sixth in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, third in pass-defense DVOA, first in adjusted sack rate, fourth in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades, ninth in opponent completion rate, third in yards per attempt against, and third in opponent yards per play. The Cowboys have yielded just six passing touchdowns. This game has an exciting 49-point total, but Detroit is implied to score just 21 points. Goff is more of an option in two-quarterback leagues. He could be without WRs D.J. Chark (ankle) and Josh Reynolds (knee), leaving Kalif Raymond and Tom Kennedy behind St. Brown.
RUNNING BACK
Notable RBs on bye: Miles Sanders, Dalvin Cook, Devin Singletary, Darrell Henderson
Start of the Week: Ezekiel Elliott vs. Lions – Fantasy’s overall RB33 in half-PPR points per game, Elliott has devolved into an extremely TD-dependent RB2. Despite running 103 routes in the pass game to Tony Pollard‘s 65, Elliott has been out-targeted 13-8 by Pollard. Zeke, however, is still leading this backfield split 60/40 in terms of playing time and is averaging a healthy 15.7 carries per game. He’s averaging just 4.1 YPC with two touchdowns, but this week’s date with the Lions is maybe the easiest one Elliott will see all year. Detroit is getting killed on the ground, hemorrhaging the second-most fantasy points to running backs, including a league-high eight rushing scores despite playing one fewer game than most. The Lions are 31st in run-defense DVOA, 28th in Pro Football Focus’ run-defense grades, 30th in opponent yards per carry, and 30th in first downs allowed on the ground. On the flip side, the Cowboys’ offensive line is seventh in adjusted line yards created in the run game. With Dak Prescott (thumb) back to hopefully take some extra defenders away from the line of scrimmage, Elliott has legitimate two-touchdown upside in a smash spot where Dallas is implied for 28 points.
Starts
Travis Etienne vs. Giants – Etienne has out-snapped James Robinson in three-straight games and is averaging a robust 6.75 YPC on 28 attempts in that span. Coach Doug Pederson made it known he wanted to get the ball in Etienne’s hands more and has delivered on that promise, as Etienne is averaging 11 touches per game since the start of Week 4. After Robinson’s hot start to the year that saw him score four touchdowns Weeks 1-3, he’s also seeing 11 touches per game since Week 4 but is averaging a poor 3.7 YPC with no scores and zero pass-game impact. Robinson still looks like the preferred back at the goal line, but Etienne has the decided edge in pass routes and targets. The lack of touchdown upside severely caps Etienne’s ceiling, but the softer matchup against a Giants defense that is 17th in fantasy points allowed to running backs, 28th in run-defense DVOA, and 32nd in opponent yards per carry makes Etienne a passable RB2/FLEX. Only four teams have surrendered more rushing yards to running backs.
Kareem Hunt at Ravens – Like most of his teammates, Hunt is coming off a horrific Week 6 against the Patriots where he rushed four times for 12 scoreless yards and didn’t register a catch. Across Weeks 1-5, Hunt averaged 14.2 touches per game and saw at least 12 in all five contests. While Nick Chubb leads all running backs with his 18 red-zone carries, Hunt is right behind him with 16 and has doubled Chubb up in the catches department 14-7. This Browns-Ravens AFC North clash has sneaky shootout potential featuring a pair of offenses that are both top-eight in points per game. The Ravens are a middling 15th in fantasy points allowed to running backs and have surrendered the third-most catches and fourth-most receiving yards to the position. With Jacoby Brissett‘s play slipping in a big way, look for the Browns to lean even more into their explosive one-two backfield punch. Chubb is an every-week RB1 of course, but Hunt’s seeing enough action to warrant upside RB2 play in this spot.
Kenyan Drake vs. Browns – J.K. Dobbins tweaked his surgically-repaired knee last week against the Giants and was out-snapped 58% to 27% by Drake. Dobbins hasn’t practiced at all this week and won’t be playing against the Browns. Justice Hill (hamstring) should be back after a week of full practices, but Drake was the lead back in Week 1 sans Dobbins, playing 59% of the snaps in the opener. In his two games as Baltimore’s No. 1, Drake has averaged 12 carries plus targets. He’s coming off a 10/119/1 explosion against the G-Men last Sunday and should again get the first crack at carries over Mike Davis and Hill. The Browns are 30th in fantasy points allowed to running backs, 30th in run-defense DVOA, and 27th in opponent yards per carry. As mentioned above, this game has some sneaky shootout potential featuring a pair of offenses top-eight in the league in scoring. Drake is worth firing up as a plug-and-play RB2/3.
Sits
Clyde Edwards-Helaire at 49ers – Fantasy’s overall RB4 across Weeks 1-4, Edwards-Helaire was getting by as a fluky touchdown-scorer. He scored five times on 54 touches in that span, good for a 9.3% touchdown rate. That’s not sustainable and included a laughable 7/0/1 rushing effort against the Colts in Week 3. In the two games since, CEH has failed to find the end zone on any of his 21 touches and has actually been out-snapped 67-59 by Jerick McKinnon. McKinnon has also out-targeted Edwards-Helaire 6-4 in that span. Isiah Pacheco has stayed involved enough to be a thorn in the side of both backs, making this a three-way RBBC in a pass-first offense. McKinnon leads the group in red-zone carries, inside-the-five carries, and pass routes. He looks like the best stash among the group while CEH remains a sell in fantasy. The Niners are fourth in fantasy points allowed to running backs, first in run-defense DVOA, 10th in Pro Football Focus’ run-defense grades, and first in opponent yards per carry. Only eight defenses have surrendered fewer rushing touchdowns to running backs. Edwards-Helaire, per usual, is a touchdown-or-bust proposition with a single-digits touch floor.
Brian Robinson vs. Packers – Robinson took claim of the Commanders’ backfield last Thursday night against the Bears, parlaying a 47% snap share into 17/60/1 rushing, finding the end zone from one yard out in the fourth quarter to salvage his fantasy week as the RB17. However, Robinson has yet to run a single route in the pass game and is still involved in a three-way RBBC alongside J.D. McKissic and Antonio Gibson in one of the league’s worst offenses. The good news for Robinson is he gets a Packers defense that is 20th in fantasy points allowed to running backs, 32nd in run-defense DVOA, 30th in Pro Football Focus’ run-defense grades, and 25th in opponent yards per carry, but the bad news is Robinson is about as TD-dependent as they come at running back. He simply has to find the end zone. Green Bay is No. 1 in opponent plays per game, and Washington is implied to score just 18.5 points as five-point underdogs. Game script could be working against the rookie runner.
Jeff Wilson vs. Chiefs – Wilson’s days as the 49ers’ RB1 are over after San Francisco dealt a package of four draft picks to the Panthers in exchange for Christian McCaffrey Thursday night. CMC is expected to be active for his Niners debut against the Chiefs. He likely won’t play a full complement of snaps Sunday, but look for coach Kyle Shanahan to get him involved in some red-zone packages in what might be a shootout with Kansas City. Wilson’s floor was already insanely low as someone who doesn’t see pass-game targets and relies heavily on finding the end zone. Wilson fumbled last week in the stunning loss to the Falcons and finished with an ugly 7/25/0 rushing effort, likely prompting the trade for McCaffrey. Wilson’s fantasy days are over. Elijah Mitchell (knee) is due back in a couple weeks, so the Niners will have a host of backs vying for distant No. 2 duties. We can probably cut Wilson in shallow-bench leagues.
WIDE RECEIVER
Notable WRs on bye: Stefon Diggs, Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, Gabe Davis, DeVonta Smith, Adam Thielen, Allen Robinson
Start of the Week: Tee Higgins vs. Falcons – After ankle issues limited him to 10 snaps in Week 5, Higgins played 86% of the snaps last week against the Saints and saw nine targets, turning in a scoreless 6/47 line. Higgins practiced all week and avoided the final injury report Friday, signaling he’s getting closer to 100 percent. The Falcons have been flamed by wide receivers, surrendering the sixth-most fantasy points, second-most catches, and seventh-most yards to the position. Atlanta is one of three teams that is bottom-10 in poth pass- and run-defense DVOA. And the Falcons are dead last in adjusted sack rate. Joe Burrow should have all day to throw Sunday. Falcons top CB A.J. Terrell has been battling a thigh injury, and No. 2 CB Casey Hayward (shoulder) was recently sent to injured reserve. We should be teeing up all of our Bengals’ skill players in fantasy. Cincinnati is implied to score 26.75 points. Higgins is a prime buy-low target as fantasy’s WR20 and getting further away from his ankle injury.
Starts
Brandin Cooks at Raiders – It’s been a pretty disappointing start to the season for Cooks. Coming out of the bye, Cooks is fantasy’s overall WR52 in half-PPR points per game. He’s scored just one touchdown and has yet to crack 100 yards in a game. Cooks’ targets have also declined each week, from 12 > 10 > 7 > 6 > 6, though he’ still pacing the team in targets and catches. Davis Mills has just been markedly worse in year two and doesn’t at all look like the long-term answer under center in Houston. Cooks, however, does get an enhanced matchup against the Raiders this week. Las Vegas is 20th in fantasy points allowed to wideouts, 30th in pass-defense DVOA, and 25th in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades. The Raiders lost starting CB Nate Hobbs (hand) to injured reserve during the bye week. Cooks and Nico Collins have strong individual matchups against the Raiders’ cornerback duo of Rock Ya-Sin and Amik Robertson, but Mills holds the keys to unlocking them. I saw Cooks get dropped in one of my redraft leagues and tried to scoop him without any luck. He’s worth firing up as a WR3 Sunday.
Michael Gallup vs. Lions – Getting further removed from his ACL injury, Gallup’s playing time spiked to 76% of the snaps last week against the Eagles, but he and Cooper Rush never seemed to be on the same page since Rush can’t throw down the field. Dak Prescott (thumb) is back under center this week, and he and Gallup have a strong on-field rapport. Gallup is somebody I’d actively be looking to acquire in fantasy as the clear No. 2 option in a pass game that is trending upward with Prescott returning. The Lions have been creamed by opposing wideouts, checking in at 25th in fantasy points allowed to the position, 32nd in pass-defense DVOA, and 32nd in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades. Played under the roof at JerryWorld, Dallas is implied to score 28 points in a game with a loft 49-point total. Gallup is an upside WR3.
Terry McLaurin vs. Packers – McLaurin hasn’t found the end zone since Week 1 and has just one 100-yard game on the year, though he has topped 75 yards three times. He’s done a lot of damage in garbage time with Carson Wentz under center, but the move from an injured Wentz (finger) to Taylor Heinicke might be just what the doctor ordered for McLaurin. He and Heinicke had a real connection last season and figure to be able to pick that back up going forward. The Packers have been stingy in pass coverage this season, surrendering the seventh-fewest fantasy points to wideouts and coming in at ninth in pass-defense DVOA, but the Commanders have been installed as five-point underdogs and might have to play from behind in this one. Jahan Dotson (hamstring) re-injured himself in practice this week and will likely miss this one. Logan Thomas (calf) has already been ruled out, condensing the target tree some. McLaurin should flirt with double-digit targets with Heinicke’s gunslinger mentality chucking passes.
Sits
Garrett Wilson at Broncos – Wilson got a bit of a boost when the Jets declared Elijah Moore (personal) out for Week 7 after he spent Thursday away from the team and requested a trade before coming back to the facility Friday. That should solidify the wideout rotation more, but the Jets are one of the least-aggressive passing offenses in football with Zach Wilson under center. And it’s been working, so there’s no reason to change, especially headed into a brutal Week 7 date with Denver’s elite pass defense. The Broncos are second in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, first in pass-defense DVOA, and first in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades. In three games with Wilson under center, Garrett has produced receiving lines of 2/41, 3/27, and ⅛ with zero touchdowns. Only Corey Davis has any semblance of a connection with Wilson.
Robert Woods vs. Colts – Treylon Burks (toe) remains sidelined on injured reserve and will miss at least the next three games. Woods paces the Titans in targets, catches, and yards, but the bar hasn’t been set high at all. Woods has cleared 40 yards just once and has yet to catch more than four passes in a game with just one touchdown. That score came back in Week 4 against these same Colts when Woods went 4/30/1 on four targets, his second-fewest of the year. He now catches the same Indy defense that is third in fantasy points allowed to wideouts. DC Gus Bradley‘s unit suffocates opposing passing games by not allowing big plays. The Colts have yielded the fewest receiving yards to opposing receivers. Woods is a no-upside, low-floor WR4 at best in a game with an ugly 42.5-point total likely to be dominated by running backs.
Parris Campbell at Titans – Campbell had his most productive game as a pro last week against the Jaguars, turning a career-high 11 targets into 7/57/1, catching his third-ever touchdown. However, Campbell has still only cleared 60 yards just once in 21 career outings. We also need to take Campbell’s 11 targets with a grain of salt. Matt Ryan fired off 58 passes against Jacksonville. The Colts probably want that number closer to 35 most weeks. And with Jonathan Taylor (ankle) due back this Sunday, Indianapolis-Tennessee profiles as a run-the-ball-and-play-defense affair. Leave Campbell’s WR11 finish last week on waivers.
TIGHT END
Notable TEs on bye: Dallas Goedert, Dawson Knox, Tyler Higbee, Irv Smith
Start of the Week: David Njoku at Ravens – Playing a career-high 88% of the snaps this season, Njoku is 11th in routes, sixth in targets, fifth in catches, and fourth in receiving yards among all tight ends. He’s the overall TE8 entering Week 7 and now catches a Ravens defense that has coughed up back-to-back productive games to tight ends. Daniel Bellinger (5/38/1) and Hayden Hurst (6/53/1) both found the end zone against Baltimore in Weeks 5 and 6 while Njoku has seen at least six targets and posted 58-plus yards in four straight games. Njoku has evolved into an every-week fantasy starter. As mentioned above, this game has sneaky shootout appeal.
Starts
Robert Tonyan at Commanders – Tonyan’s playing time crested at 63% last week against the Jets, and he was cooking Gang Green’s middle-field defense all afternoon with season-highs across the board en route to 10/90/0 on 12 targets. Especially with Randall Cobb (ankle) sidelined, Tonyan looks to be getting closer to 100 percent off his ACL surgery, becoming Aaron Rodgers’ go-to between the hash marks and down the seams. The Commanders have surrendered the third-fewest fantasy points to tight ends but haven’t exactly faced a murders’ row of opponents, though Dallas Goedert (3/26/1) was able to hit pay dirt back in Week 3. At fantasy’s thinnest position, Tonyan’s arrow is pointing upward as a top-12 fantasy option.
Gerald Everett vs. Seahawks – It’s a #RevengeGame for Everett after he spent last season with the Seahawks before they opted to re-sign Will Dissly over him and replace Everett with Noah Fant. Everett’s playing time is hovering around 60%, but Donald Parham suffered another concussion in Week 6 and looks likely to miss Sunday’s game. Josh Palmer is also in concussion protocol with his second concussion in a two-month span. With both players likely out and Keenan Allen (hamstring) iffy for a full role, Everett may be leaned on even more in a game with a 50.5-point total, the highest of Week 7. The Seahawks are dead last in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, 26th in pass-defense DVOA, 29th in opponent plays per game, and 30th in opponent yards per play. Everett should be fired up as an upside TE1 option.
Cade Otton at Panthers – Cameron Brate was backboarded off the field with a scary neck injury last week and was diagnosed with a sprain, but he’s going to miss Sunday’s game. With Brate sidelined back in Week 5, rookie Otton played 94% of the snaps and ran a route on 49-of-53 drop-backs against the Falcons, posting a 6/43/0 line on seven targets. It was good enough for the TE14 week in half-PPR formats. With guys like Tyler Higbee, Dallas Goedert, Dawson Knox, and Irv Smith on bye and Darren Waller (hamstring) unlikely to play, Otton is very much in the top-12 mix against a tanking Panthers team. Otton will be out there for every snap, and the Bucs are likely to be in the mix for the most points scored in Week 7.
